State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

Sensor network design based on system-wide reliability criteria. Part I: Objectives

Reliability based criteria are quite popular for optimal sensor network design. We present a modified definition of system reliability for sensor network design for two applications: reliable estimation of variables in a steady state linear flow process, and reliable fault detection and diagnosis for any process. Unlike the weakest-link based definition of system reliability in the literature, the proposed definition considers the entire system and is consistent with the reliability concept used in classical reliability literature. For each application, dual approaches for defining system reliability are proposed, and their analogy with the reliability problem in the classical reliability literature is established. Using examples and stochastic simulations, the advantage of using the proposed system reliability in contrast to the existing definition is illustrated. Part II of this series of articles presents methods for efficient generation of the system reliability function and its use in optimization-based approaches for designing optimal sensor networks.     

Adaptive actuator failure compensation design for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems

In this paper, an adaptive control approach is designed for compensating the faults in the actuators of chaotic systems and maintaining the acceptable system stability. We propose a state‐feedback model reference adaptive control scheme for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems. Only the dimensions of the chaotic systems are required to be known. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, new adaptive control laws are synthesized to accommodate actuator failures and system nonlinearities. An illustrative example is studied. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the design method. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new wavelet based fault detection,classification and location in transmission lines

This paper deals with the application of wavelet transforms for the detection, classification and location of faults on transmission lines. A Global Positioning System clock is used to synchronize sampling of voltage and current signals at both the ends of the transmission line. The detail coefficients of current signals of both the ends are utilized to calculate fault indices. These fault indices are compared with threshold values to detect and classify the faults. Artificial Neural Networks are employed to locate the fault, which make use of approximate decompositions of the voltages and currents of local end. The proposed algorithm is tested successfully for different locations and types of faults.     

大口径光学元件装夹转运结构设计及分析

为了实现大口径光学元件的安全装夹、转运,通过光学元件开槽与不开槽两种装夹方式的分析,得出开槽夹紧转运方式将带来微裂纹、应力集中、成本高等缺陷,提出了利用摩擦力克服光学零件的重力和惯性力的低应力装夹转运方案。通过对光学元件低应力夹紧结构设计,并利用有限元分析方法,得到不开槽装夹方式下,光学元件的最大主应力为1.11 MPa,最大切应力为0.73 MPa,远低于光学元件破坏的强度极限,且受力均匀,无应力集中现象。     

A Global Maximum Error Controller Based Nonlinearity Aware TPWL Method for Reducing Nonlinear Systems

Abstract

Model order reduction is a common practice to reduce large order systems so that their simulation and control become easy. Nonlinearity aware trajectory piecewise linear is a variation of trajectory piecewise linearization technique of order reduction that is used to reduce nonlinear systems. With this scheme, the reduced approximation of the system is generated by weighted sum of the linearized and reduced sub-models obtained at certain linearization points on the system trajectory. This scheme uses dynamically inspired weight assignment that makes the approximation nonlinearity aware. Just as weight assignment, the process of linearization points selection is also important for generating faithful approximations. This article uses a global maximum error controller based linearization points selection scheme according to which a state is chosen as a linearization point if the error between a current reduced model and the full order nonlinear system reaches a maximum value. A combination that not only selects linearization points based on an error controller but also assigns dynamic inspired weights is shown in this article. The proposed scheme generates approximations with higher accuracies. This is demonstrated by applying the proposed method to some benchmark nonlinear circuits including RC ladder network and inverter chain circuit and comparing the results with the conventional schemes.     

Alternatives for improving energy security in Cape Verde

The lack of consensus on the meaning of energy security and how it should be measured hinders the evaluation of alternatives for improving the Cape Verdean energy sector. The objective of the paper is to develop an energy security index adjusted to the country's context. The methods used are the multi-criteria analysis and the Delphi survey. Different alternatives to improve energy security are assessed: electrically interconnect Cape Verde's islands, increase the share of renewable energy, and a combination of the previous alternatives. The results of our analysis indicate that increasing renewable energy is the optimal alternative for Cape Verde.     

公路隧道喷射混凝土套拱加固结构力学特性

为研究喷射混凝土套拱加固前后二次衬砌与混凝土套拱的受力状况,依托陕西汉中至留坝段八里关隧道,运用有限元软件建立隧道混凝土结构套拱加固分析模型,并通过现场监测获取二次衬砌与套拱间的接触压力、套拱格栅拱架钢筋应力、套拱混凝土应力,将数值模拟结果与现场测试结果相结合,得出套拱结构的一般受力变化规律。结果表明:套拱加固前衬砌结构的最不利荷载位置位于施工缝附近的拱顶、拱肩与拱脚处; 由于衬砌局部变形与温度应力的影响,套拱混凝土应力变化呈现反复“上升-下降-上升”最后趋于稳定的特点; 套拱的作用是控制二次衬砌的进一步变形,套拱施作后所承受荷载较小,套拱反作用力远小于围岩作用于衬砌的应力,在应力计算中不应将衬砌与套拱作为整体计算; 套拱结构数值模拟所得的结果与现场测试套拱结构内力(轴力、弯矩)的大小及分布相似度高,但在衬砌裂损严重部位,数值模拟所得结果误差较大,应以现场测试结果为准。     

A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.