基于神经网络的河道浅滩演变预测模型

河道浅滩演变是一个复杂的非线性动力学过程, 作者借助神经网络处理非线性问题的优势, 在分析影响河道浅滩演变因素的基础上, 建立了预测河道浅淮演变的BP网络模型, 并对模型中的输入因子和样本的提取进行了探讨. 以闽江竹岐至侯官河段为实例,用“试控法”给出了BP网络模型的建模方案, 用正交设计原理选取相应的训练样本集, 利用该样本集对网络进行学习和训练, 并用训练好的BP网络模型预测浅滩上年内最小水深和年平均淤积厚度. 计算结果表明: 模型预测结果与实际值吻合良好. 这为河道浅滩演变预测研究提供了新方法.     

黑土土壤质量演变初探I：不同开垦年限黑土主要质量指标演变规律

根据土壤质量的定义和研究方法 ,对黑土的主要质量指标演变规律进行初步研究。结果表明 :黑土的颗粒组成受开垦历史影响的程度较小 ,其质地没有发生显著变化 ;黑土的有机质、全氮、全硫和全磷随着黑土开垦时间的增加而不断降低 ;速效磷随黑土开垦时间的增加有增高的趋势。经过统计分析 ,黑土中粉砂(0.05～0.002mm)含量与细砂(0.25～0.05mm)和粘粒(<0.002mm)含量具有相关性,黑土有机质含量与全氮、全硫、全磷和速效钾具有明显的正相关。因此 ,初步认为黑土中粉粒和有机质含量可以作为土壤物理和养分方面的质量指标     

美国COMSTAC/AST卫星发射市场预测

隶属于美国联邦航空管理委员会（FAA）的美国商业航天运输咨询委员会（COMSTAC）和商业航天运输管理协会（AST）在每年的5-6月份都对未来10年的商业卫星发射市场进行预测。2001年该委员会对商业同步轨道（GEO）和非同步轨道（NGEO）的卫星需求和发射需求都进行了预测。     

土钉支护结构水平位移安全监控模型研究

国内现行规范、标准是以极限变形值作为土钉支护结构水平位移安全监测报警值 ,但没有反映工程进度影响 ,不便指导工程实践。提出“过程控制”概念 ,以反正切函数为基本形式 ,基于历史经验建立“安全时程曲线”控制模型 ,要求施工过程中实测水平位移始终处在“安全时程曲线”之下 ,以确保最终变形在某一适当的阈值之内 ,已有实测结果可以为施工方案调整提供依据。通过实际案例 ,检验模型的可行性 ,表明过程控制模型较极限变形策略更具可操作性     

Simulation of cup-cone fracture using the cohesive model

The cohesive model is used for the prediction of the crack path during stable crack extension in ductile materials. The problem of crack-path deviation is investigated by means of simulation of crack propagation in a round tensile bar. The respective phenomenon is known as cup-cone fracture. It is shown that the model is able to predict the failure mechanism, which consists of normal fracture in the center and combined normal/shear fracture in the so-called “shear lips” at the specimen’s rim. The damage evolution and crack path predicted by the model are presented. The effect of the normal and shear failure parameters on the crack-deflection point and several aspects of the finite element mesh are discussed.     

苯部分加氢催化剂失活原因的研究

探讨了环己醇装置苯部分加氢催化剂失活的原因，分析了失活机理，并结合实例——母液置换法解决催化剂的氮化物中毒。     

Thermomechanical fatigue—damage mechanisms and mechanism-based life prediction methods

An existing extensive database on the isothermal and thermomechanical fatigue behaviour of high-temperature titanium alloy EVII 834 and dispersoid-strengthened aluminum alloy X8019 in SiC particle-reinforced as well as unreinv conditions was used to evaluate both the adaptability of fracture mechanics approaches to TMF and the resulting predictive capabilities of determining material life by crack propagation consideration. Selection of the correct microstructural concepts was emphasised and these concepts were, then adjusted by using data from independent experiments in order to avoid any sort of fitting. It is shown that the cyclic /-integral (δJ_eff concept) is suitable to predict the cyclic lifetime for conditions where the total crack propagation rate is approximately identical to pure fatigue crack growth velocity. In the case that crack propagation is strongly affected by creep, the creep-fatigue damage parameter δ_CF introduced by Riedel can be successfully applied. If environmental effects are very pronounced, the accelerating influence of corrosion on fatigue crack propagation can no longer implicitly be taken into account in the fatigue crack growth law. Instead, a linear combination of the crack growth rate contributions from plain fatigue (determined in vacuum) and from environmental attack is assumed and found to yield a satisfactory prediction, if the relevant corrosion process is taken into account.     

宣汉——达县地区飞仙关组储层预测方法研究

在宣汉-达县地区,以往仅依据地震属性来预测飞仙关组储层分布,钻探结果与实际情况不符,为此本文提出量化分析预测结合主参数分析的新方法和新思路。在量化分析中首先对飞仙关组储层进行高分辨率反演,获得储能系数图;然后结合主振幅剖面和主频率剖面分析,对储层进行预测。在研究区,本方法的预测结果与实钻情况相吻合。     

Analysis of crack tip plasticity for microstructurally small cracks using crystal plasticity theory

Crack tip plastic zone sizes and crack tip opening displacements (CTOD) for stationary microstructurally small cracks are calculated using the finite element method. To simulate the plastic deformation occurring at the crack tip, a two-dimensional small strain constitutive relationship from single crystal plasticity theory is implemented in the finite element code ANSYS as a user-defined plasticity subroutine. Small cracks are modeled in both single grains and multiple grains, and different crystallographic conditions are considered. The computed plastic zone sizes and CTOD are compared with those found using conventional isotropic plasticity theory, and significant differences are observed.     

A Novel Channel Predictor Based on Constrained Hidden Markov Model

1　Introduction　Linkadaptationtechniqueisnowwidelyrecognizedasakeysolutiontoincreasethespectralefficiencyofwire lesssystems[1～ 3] .GPRS ,EDGE ,cdma2 0 0 0andWCDMAallincludelinkadaptationasameanstopro videhigherdatarates[4～ 5] .Torealizethepotentialoflinkadaptation ,reliablechannel predictionisneces sary[6 ] .　Therearemanydifferentchannelpredictionmethodsavailablenow ,suchasLongRangePrediction(LRP) [6 ] ,predictionbasedonsubspacesignalprocess ingalgorithms[7] ,predictionbasedonFinit…