一类考虑病毒发生变异的SIS疾病传播模型

为了研究变异行为对病毒传播的影响,提出了一个病毒发生变异的疾病传播模型,在模型中考虑了两种病毒相互转换的过程,计算机模拟结果表明,两种病毒的稳态感染比例与它们之间的相互转换概率γ1和γ2有关,当γ1＞0且γ2=0时,I1型感染者将消失,当γ1与γ2都大于0时,I1/I2与γ1/γ2成反比,且与α1/β1和α2/β2的取值无关.研究还发现病毒变异时由于缺乏对应的治疗药物和措施而出现一段真空期,这导致变异病毒的感染比例快速增加,但真空期的出现只能增加感染者的瞬时感染比例,而对稳态感染比例没有影响.该研究对人们深入理解病毒传播机理具有启发作用.     

LDE融合光谱回归分类的光照变化人脸识别

针对光照变化人脸识别问题中传统的光谱回归算法不能很好地进行特征提取而严重影响识别性能的问题,提出了局部判别嵌入优化光谱回归分类的人脸识别算法。计算出训练样本的特征向量;借助于数据的近邻和分类关系,利用局部判别嵌入算法构建分类问题所需的嵌入,同时学习每种分类的子流形所需的嵌入;利用光谱回归分类算法计算投影矩阵,并利用最近邻分类器完成人脸的识别。在两大人脸数据库扩展YaleB及CMU PIE上的实验验证了该算法的有效性,实验结果表明,相比其他光谱回归算法,该算法取得了更高的识别率、更好的工作特性,并且降低了计算复杂度。     

基于FBG传感器网络的煤矿巷道在线监测系统设计

在掘进和采煤的过程中,巷道围岩的受力情况复杂多变,因此,巷道离层位移和围岩压力的实时监测是保证巷道正常工作的一个重要因素。设计了一种基于FBG传感器网络的煤矿巷道在线监测系统。该系统实现井下700 m数据采集,井上分析处理,可提供时序趋势变化、结构分布变化和阈值报警等功能。根据朱仙庄煤矿巷道的特点,系统安装4只FBG位移传感器、4只FBG土压力传感器和4只FBG温度传感器,对巷道掘进区域的离层位移、围岩压力和温度变化进行在线监测。监测结果表明:系统对离层位移、围岩压力和巷道温度变化反映灵敏,能够有效保证巷道掘进的正常进行,且为后续巷道施工提供数据支持和理论依据。     

Spatial and temporal variability in lake trout diets in Lake Ontario as revealed by stomach contents and stable isotopes

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) are an ecologically and economically important piscivore with reported differences in diet and feeding behaviour throughout its range. Eleven stomach content and stable isotope-based metrics were used to describe diets of 349 lake trout between two years (2013 and 2018) and among geographic zones (west, central, east, Kingston basin) in Lake Ontario. Using individual (e.g., volumetric, %V) and aggregate (e.g., index of relative importance, %IRI) diet metrics, we found an overwhelming dominance of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in lake trout diets among some zones in 2013 (%V = 23.3 – 92.7; %IRI = 12.2 – 99.5) and all zones in 2018 (%V = 83.9 – 96.7; %IRI = 96.5 – 100). Round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) were secondary lake trout prey items with relative diet percentages only marginally reflected by spatial and temporal variation in prey abundance (round goby: %V = 1.0 – 33.3, %IRI = 0.1 – 13.2; rainbow smelt: %V = 2.5 – 54.0, %IRI = 0.1 – 54.0). Carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopic niche areas and orientations were similar across all year-zone combinations reinforcing temporal and spatial consistency in lake trout diet. The findings of this study advance the time series in describing Lake Ontario lake trout diets and can be used to complement stock assessments and management decisions associated with carrying capacity for the diverse salmonid community.     

基于引力搜索算法的分数阶变异时序回归GSA-TSGM(1,1)模型

为了利用分数阶累加算子在灰色短期预测中的高效性能,首次将分数阶累加算子引入变异时序回归模型以期取得更高的预测精度。主要方法如下：首先取湖北省链子崖某监测点1978—1987年的十年数据作为训练集并使用引力搜索算法确定最佳分数阶累加阶数,而1988—1993年的六年数据作为验证集验证提出的模型;其次对比了经典灰色模型GM(1,1)、分数阶累加灰色模型、变异时序回归模型TSGM(1,1)三种灰色模型。结果如下：首先修正了陈西江等人变异时序回归模型仿真时出现的错误,其次表明了相比于其他的模型,基于引力搜索算法的分数阶累加时序回归模型在进行灰色长期预测中具有较高的预测精度。因此,通过分数阶累加算子提高了灰色理论中长期预测模型的精度,为灰色长期预测提供了指导。     

怒江流域云南区段降雨时空变化分析

利用怒江流域云南区段及其毗邻地区77个站点1980~2009年雨量资料,以及怒江干流道街坝站1957~2015年和南汀河支流姑老河站1960~2015年降雨、径流资料,研究该流域降雨区域分异特征及变化趋势。结果表明:怒江流域云南区段多年平均面雨量达1 336.7 mm,远大于全省平均降雨量;怒江干流云南区段上游贡山地区和下游支流苏帕河流域,以及支流南汀河流域下游多年平均降雨量达1 500 mm以上,而干流的中游怒江坝干热河谷不足1 000 mm,降水空间分布格局与西南季风强弱及纵向岭谷地形密切相关;怒江流域云南区段降水量呈下降趋势,与怒江上游西藏区域相反,支流南汀河流域面雨量减少速率(56 mm/10 a)大于怒江干流云南区段(29 mm/10 a);怒江流域云南区段夏季降水占全年降水量的51%,怒江干流云南区段与支流南汀河流域降水量差异主要表现在夏季;怒江流域云南区段春季降水量呈增加趋势,夏季、秋季和冬季降水量呈减少趋势;怒江干流道街坝站、支流南汀河姑老河站降雨量长周期分别为36 a和33 a左右,从降雨变化长周期来看,2002年以来的少水期将持续到2018~2020年。怒江干流云南区段降水量变化的Hurst指数值为0.69,表明其未来趋势与过去一致,仍将延续降水量减少的变化趋势。     

岩石节理三维粗糙度各向异性表征新方法

针对传统二维节理面粗糙度表征方法的不足,提出一种新的岩石节理面三维粗糙度描述方法。首先,利用光学扫描系统得到节理表面点云数据并建立三维模型;运用改进的变异函数方法,提出一种新的基于正态分布模型参数的三维粗糙度(VA)方法;最后,运用新方法对花岗岩张拉型节理表面的粗糙特性进行分析。结果表明,提出的新方法能够反映节理面的起伏变化、频率和分形特征,并因此能描述出节理粗糙度的各向异性特性。     

Face detection based on skin color likelihood

We propose a face detection method based on skin color likelihood via a boosting algorithm which emphasizes skin color information while deemphasizing non-skin color information. A stochastic model is adapted to compute the similarity between a color region and the skin color. Both Haar-like features and Local Binary Pattern (LBP) features are utilized to build a cascaded classifier. The boosted classifier is implemented based on skin color emphasis to localize the face region from a color image. Based on our experiments, the proposed method shows good tolerance to face pose variation and complex background with significant improvements over classical boosting-based classifiers in terms of total error rate performance.     

Urban water demand,climatic variation,and irrigation-water insecurity: interactive stressors and lessons for water governance from the Angat River basin (Philippines)

Climatic variation and intersectoral water competition increasingly challenge the effective provision of irrigation services. This article explores their combined effects on irrigation allocation from the Angat Reservoir (Philippines), where domestic water use in Metro Manila has overtaken regional irrigation as the dominant right-holder. Rules protecting Metro Manila’s large right to water ‘interact’ with dry spells to affect irrigation security in wet and dry seasons. Historically, irrigators were uncompensated because re-allocation’s cause was contested as (1) an unforeseeable climatic event (releasing domestic utilities of liability), or (2) produced by urban demand (requiring compensation). Trade-off rules must be prepared to navigate combinatory effects.     

Critical evaluation of coupling particle size distribution with the shrinking core model

The shrinking core model (SCM) is widely used to model fluid-solid reactions such as the leaching of metals from minerals. In most cases, however, the particle size distribution (PSD) of the solid material was disregarded. In this paper the erroneous shift in the control regime when neglecting PSD was quantified and the dependence of the shift on the coefficients of variation (CV) and the type of PSD was analysed. By coupling the SCM with a Gamma PSD, it was found that neglecting the PSD would shift the control regime from chemical reaction to inert/ash layer diffusion, when the CV was between 0.7 and 1.2. For a system controlled by liquid film diffusion, neglect of the PSD, would shift the control regime to chemical reaction when CV is between 0.3 and 0.7 or to inert/ash layer diffusion when CV is greater (0.9-1.5). It was therefore postulated that some researchers had unknowingly made invalid conclusions about the control regime due to the neglect of PSD. However, an inert/ash layer diffusion-controlled process was insensitive to the neglect of PSD. When CV<0.3, neglect of the PSD would not cause any erroneous shifts, irrespective of the control regime. Experimental data confirmed the observation. For a given CV, the deviation in the fraction reacted from the mono-PSD increases with CV and decreases with time. The maximum deviation, which occurs at the beginning, is about 10% with a gamma PSD of CV=0.3. The percent deviation is dependent of the type of PSDs. Gamma PSD gives the lowest deviation while Gaudin-Schuhmann results in the largest deviation (maxi. ∼19%, with CV=0.3) in the first half of dissolution process. Log-normal distribution gives a larger deviation than gamma but quickly approaches the latter with time. The deviation for Rosin-Rammler is between log-normal and Gaudin-Schuhmann. For systems with CV less than 0.3, the SCM can be fairly used without considering PSD. When CV is greater than 0.3, particularly in the early stage of a dissolution process with a PSD other than gamma, PSD should be included to avoid substantial errors.