分布式信息系统风险评估研究-以安徽烟草为例

对分布式信息系统所面临的主要风险进行识别和评估是构建灾备系统的首要任务。以安徽烟草分布式信息系统为例,首先分析了该信息系统在环境、管理、技术、设备等方面所存在的风险,然后以层次分析法为核心构造了评估决策模型,结合专家打分,计算出各类风险对安徽烟草信息系统的威胁程度并进行排序,从而识别出主要的风险源,为构建灾备体系提供依据。     

桥梁信息化及智能桥梁2020年度研究进展

以信息化、智能化为特征的数字化时代的到来推动了桥梁工程技术的发展与创新,有必要将云计算、大数据、人工智能、3D打印、机器人等战略性新兴产业技术与桥梁工程相融合,从智能设计、智能施工、智能运维等多个维度,推进桥梁工业化、数字化、智能化升级。本文从桥梁信息化、智能检测与安全运维、智能防灾减灾、智能材料等方面,综述了2020年该领域前沿技术和重要成果,总结了研究热点与前景展望。分析表明：BIM技术可以提升桥梁正向设计精细化水平、施工过程控制和管理准确化程度;无人机、机器人等智能检测技术与机器学习、卷积神经网络等人工智能技术提高了桥梁检测的精度和效率;高性能智能材料的应用促进了桥梁结构的自感知性、自适应性、自调节性和自诊断性;基于人工智能的自然灾害监测与预警为桥梁智能防灾减灾提供了新的发展思路。未来应将人工智能技术深度融合桥梁设计、建造和养护的全生命周期,顺应信息化、智能化的发展趋势,实现桥梁强国梦。     

安徽省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与评价

旱灾是影响安徽省农业特别是粮食生产可持续发展的重要制约因素。在相同致灾强度下,灾情会随灾害脆弱性的增强而加重,因此,研究农业旱灾脆弱性对安徽省防灾减灾和农业可持续发展具有特别重要意义。根据影响旱灾脆弱性的因素和指标体系选取的原则,选择了旱灾面积比、森林覆盖率、农村人均收入等9个指标,采用加权综合评价方法对各市旱灾脆弱性进行分析,并利用聚类分析方法进行旱灾脆弱性区划。结果表明,除合肥市、阜阳市、池州市、宿州市和黄山市5个市需要采取措施降低旱灾脆弱度外,安徽省总体上农业旱灾脆弱性较弱,有较强的抗旱承灾能力。     

入海水道二期对洪泽湖地区洪水风险的影响研究

为探究淮河入海水道二期工程对洪泽湖的泄洪能力以及周边滞洪区的影响,在对研究区河网概化及地形处理的基础上,建立了研究区河网一维、洪泽湖湖区与周边滞洪区二维耦合的水动力数值模型,并采用1991,2003,2006,2007四年实测历史洪水资料对模型进行率定及验证。基于现状工况、规划工况以及不同洪水量级,设计了5个对比方案对研究区进行洪水演进数值模拟,对不同洪水量级进行横向对比,对不同工况进行纵向对比,并对不同方案进行淹没面积分析和洪水影响分析。结果表明,入海水道二期工程的启用可以有效降低洪泽湖水位,提高洪泽湖的防洪标准和周边滞洪区的启用标准,减少同等洪水量级下的受影响人口数和区域GDP,为洪泽湖的防洪安全建设以及周边蓄滞洪区的稳定发展创造了条件。     

Giant hogweed at its northern distribution limit in North America: Experiments for a better understanding of its dispersal dynamics along rivers

We studied the reproduction and dispersal of giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) at its northern distribution limit in North America (Québec, 2014–2016) to better understand the invasion dynamics of the species along rivers. Seeds were collected from a riparian population to conduct germination, floatation, and dispersal experiments. Data were analysed in comparison with a real invasion case that was initiated about 10 years ago along a river system. In Québec, giant hogweed individuals produce on average 14,000 to 16,000 seeds with a germination rate of 75–85%. Seeds with endosperm that fall in water likely sink within 5 hr. Along a small brook, most disperse over short distances (<40 m) in summer, although some can travel 100–300 m. These data suggest that late‐summer or early‐fall water dispersal of seeds would not explain the magnitude and rapidity of the invasion patterns observed along streams. We suggest that late‐fall and, especially, spring floods are the most efficient dispersal vectors for giant hogweed seeds and are likely responsible for the establishment of populations kilometres downstream from introduction points along river systems. The spread of giant hogweed would consequently be less influenced in the near future by a rise in temperature than by a change in the magnitude or timing of flood events.     

Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set

This study aims to improve the general flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS based on α-cut level sets which can reduce the uncertainty inherent in even fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. Since fuzzy TOPSIS leads to a crisp closeness for each alternative, it is frequently argued that fuzzy weights and fuzzy ratings should be in fuzzy relative closeness. Therefore, this study used a modified α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS to develop a spatial flood vulnerability approach for Han River in Korea, considering various uncertainties in weights derivation and crisp data aggregation. Two results from fuzzy TOPSIS and modified fuzzy TOPSIS were compared. Some regions which showed no or small ranking changes have their centro-symmetric distributions, while other regions whose rankings varied dynamically, have biased (anti-symmetric) distributions. It can be concluded that α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS produce more robust prioritization since more uncertainties can be considered. This method can be applied to robust spatial vulnerability or decision making in water resources management.     

基于MIKE FLOOD的洪泽湖周边滞洪区洪水演进模拟研究

基于实测断面资料建立了研究区的一维水动力模型,基于高精度DEM以及1∶10000地形图建立了研究区的二维水动力模型,并用MIKE FLOOD将一维模型和二维模型进行耦合,构建了洪泽湖周边滞洪区一、二维耦合的洪水演进数学模型。利用2003年历史洪水资料对模型参数进行了率定,并以2007年历史洪水资料进行了验证。以洪泽湖百年一遇设计洪水为模型上边界,二河闸、三河闸以及高良涧闸的现行调度方案的水位-流量关系为模型下边界,对洪泽湖百年一遇设计洪水方案进行模拟计算,当蒋坝水位达到14.33m时,洪泽湖周边滞洪区开始滞洪,得到开始滞洪后不同时段研究区内各类洪水风险要素的动态分布情况以及最大淹没水深、淹没历时,验证了模型的合理性,可用于蓄滞洪区洪水演算分析。     

Flood Inundation Modelling for Mid‐Lower Brisbane Estuary

This study utilizes a two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model to calibrate and validate an inundation model for the Brisbane River estuary in Queensland, Australia. The bathymetry data used in the hydraulic model are derived from one arc second (1 s) shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model, and the two‐dimensional hydraulic model is parameterized using the generated bathymetry with four open boundaries with water level observations and roughness coefficients. The calibration performance is evaluated by comparing the simulated results with the digitized records during the January 2013 flood event (a low magnitude event) at three gauging stations. The calibrated model is validated with water level data and available discharge data during the January 2011 flood (a large magnitude event) at four gauging stations located along the Brisbane River. Different performance indices are applied to demonstrate that the developed model performs well during calibration and validation. A sensitivity analysis is presented to assess the influence of riverbed elevation changes on the model because the main uncertainty of the model is the bathymetry data. The proposed model with the shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model‐derived riverbed elevation for the Brisbane estuary is able to predict the flood inundation extent at an accuracy of 66.9% which is higher than or comparable with the accuracies of the existing studies. However, it is expected that the accuracy will increase if some improved bathymetry data become available in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

溪源泄洪洞出口处闽江设计水位分析研究

溪源泄洪洞出口位于闽江之上,为分析泄洪洞出口处的设计水位,采用设计流量和水位流量关系推求法及实测水位资料推求法两种方法对工程设计水位进行计算,经过合理性分析,工程所在地近年水位变化剧烈,采用设计流量和水位流量关系推求法更符合现状情况,为工程建设提供可靠的设计成果。     

面板堆石坝垫层渡汛离心模型试验研究

西北口水库大坝是我国建设的第一座百米级钢筋混凝土面板堆石坝,其百年一遇洪水渡汛水位降落幅度21.63 m,水位骤降速度最大可达3.65 m/h。面板尚未浇筑前的堆石坝体需临时拦洪渡汛,坝体垫层既起面板垫层作用,还要保证堆石坝体安全渡汛,水位骤降对垫层将产生拖拽力作用,影响到垫层的稳定性。本文通过面板堆石坝垫层渡汛离心模型试验,对不同渗透性垫层安全渡汛进行了试验研究,试验研究成果被西北口面板堆石坝工程施工期安全渡汛设计采纳,为面板坝工程建设特别是施工期安全渡汛提供了技术支撑。