江垭水库超蓄能力及效益分析

为了发挥江垭水库超蓄洪水的能力 ,以达到降低洪灾损失、减轻下游防洪压力的目的 ,在原设计总体布置不变、基本不影响大坝施工总进度的前提下 ,利用工程正在施工的有利时机 ,将大坝由原设计高程 2 4 2m加高至 2 4 5m ,获得 1 15亿m3的超蓄库容 ,能显著地削减洪峰 ,并增加了水库的错峰能力及汛期防洪调度的灵活性 ,具有显著的减灾效益 ,并能提高发电效益 .     

海河流域50年治理成就和展望

海河流域位于京畿要地 ,是我国水利发展的一个重要地区。流域降水时空分布集中 ,在全国各大江河中最为突出 ,水旱灾害频繁。建国 5 0年来 ,党和政府十分重视流域的治理与开发 ,建成大、中、小型水库 1 90 0多座。总库容 2 94亿 m3,疏浚行洪排涝河道 5 0多条 ,滞洪区 2 6处 ,建立比较完善防洪体系 ,但也存在不少问题。今后 ,在防洪除涝减灾 ,合理配置水资源 ,防治水土流失和水污染等方面 ,还有许多工作等待我们去做     

1996年长江中下游堤防工程防洪经济效益分析

１９９６年长江中游发生了较大洪水，洞庭湖及干流域陵矶地区的洪水位超过历史最高洪水位，防洪工程发挥了重要作用，为了科学评价防洪工程在１９９６年抗洪斗争中获得的经济效益，总结经验才识，依据有关实际资料对长江中游主要堤防工程的防洪经济效益进行了粗略的分析与估算，结果表明：１９９６年长江中下游防洪工程的防洪经济效益价值量为８４０．５５亿元。     

Risk and regulation: can improved government action reduce the impacts of natural disasters?

From an examination of national policies for risk mitigation, the paper asks what types of laws are successful and should be more widely adopted, and what does not work. Three types of regulations are considered: (1) regulations for constructing new buildings and code enforcement; (2) regulations for intervening in/upgrading the existing building stock; and (3) regulation of the insurance industry. When applied, improved codes can substantially reduce the impacts of natural disasters. However, unnecessary complexity is shown to compromise implementation and enforcement. The widespread destruction of buildings in the earthquakes of Kocaeli, Turkey, in 1999 and Gujarat, India, in 2001 was not due to inadequate codes. Destruction occurred because codes were not generally adopted. Improving the application and enforcement of codes in developing countries are necessary key measures. For the strengthening of existing substandard buildings, some regulations exist and some successful programmes of evaluation and strengthening are in progress. However, lessons from the US experience indicate legislation is needed to back such programmes, and further incentives for action are needed. Several national insurance schemes for natural catastrophe losses (US programmes for flood, New Zealand programmes for earthquake, and French programmes for all catastrophic natural hazards) have considerable potential to stimulate mitigation activity. Ultimately, coercion by government is only part of the answer. The success of any government action depends equally on the development in society of a 'safety culture' in which citizens both understand the risks they face and are prepared to participate in the management of them.     

陆相薄互层油藏四维地震监测存在的问题与建议

四维地震监测技术已经被成功地应用于海上油田的管理中，但陆上油田成功实例较少。本文在认真分析储层条件、油藏条件、地震条件的基础上，指出了我国陆相薄互层油藏四维地震监测存在的问题，并给出了一些建议。研究认为，岩石物理研究和可行性论证是实施陆相薄互层四维地震监测试验的基础；提高四维地震资料的可重复性是关键；叠前地震属性的研究和应用是四维地震解释的主要发展方向；多波多分量地震技术是一个非常重要的工具；现阶段陆相薄互层油藏四维地震监测试验应首先着眼于稠油热采监测、注气或注CO2监测以及高孔隙未固结或固结较差的砂岩水驱开采监测。     

基于GIS的山洪及诱发灾害的风险分析

山洪及其诱发的泥石流、崩塌、滑坡等灾害突发性强、危害大，应根据区域灾害风险分析的结果，对潜在高风险区进行重点防护。本文在分析灾害成因和风险因素的基础上，采用指标模型法，基于地理信息系统技术对桂东县寨前流域内山洪及其诱发灾害的风险进行了分析，得出灾害高风险区的分布。     

大流域洪水预报与洪水调度管理方法研究

采用水文学与水力学、确定与随机相结合的方法，研究大流域洪水预报与洪水调度管理。确定性模型采用降雨～径流模型的新安江模型和经验预报方案进行流域流量过程预报，一维非恒定流水力学方法进行河道流量与水位以及蓄滞洪预报。随机模型采用线性动态模型进行下断面水位实时预报，最小二乘递推模型进行误差实时校正。以长江支流修水流域为例，采用新安江模型、经验方案进行万家埠与柘林水库入库洪水预报作为水力学计算的上边界条件，采用一维非恒定流水力学方法进行河道洪水流量、水位计算以及分洪计算。该方法为流域的防洪减灾提供了科学的途径。     

水库水沙联合调度多目标决策模型

针对水库运用过程中蓄水与排沙之间的矛盾，本文首先建立了水库防洪、发电及航运调度子模型；然后，以水库防洪、发电及航运效益为基本目标，应用多目标决策方法，建立了水沙联合调度多目标决策模型；为减少水沙联合调度计算的工作量和难度，以子模型计算结果为基础，建立水库运行参数与目标之间的函数关系，将各目标有机地联系在一起，据此合理进行水沙联合调度；最后，将该模型应用到三峡水库汛末蓄水的研究中，得到一个兼顾各目标要求的蓄水方案。     

水库防洪预报调度的风险分析

本文从水文预报误差的不确定性分析出发，将短期洪水预报精度评定指标转化为入库洪水过程的随机特征值，并引入水库调洪演算随机数学模型，从而实现水文预报风险向预报调度风险的转化，为定量考察预报调度风险率、合理选择动态的汛限水位提供了科学的依据。通过这一方法论证了水文预报精度对水库防洪预报调度风险率的影响，表明提高水文预报精度将有利于降低水库调洪风险率。     

Sediment dynamics and pollutant mobility in rivers: An interdisciplinary approach

Characteristic dynamic features of sediment‐related processes in rivers include dramatic effects of stormwater events on particle transport, rapid and far‐reaching effects of sulphide oxidation during resuspension, and biological accumulation and potential release of toxic chemicals. Pollutant mobility is the net result of the stabilizing and mobilizing effects in both hydraulic and chemical fields. In practice, emphasis has to be given to fine‐grained sediments and suspended matter as these materials exhibit large surface areas and high sorption capacities. Organic materials are highly reactive. Degradation of organic matter will induce oxygen depletion and might enhance formation of flocs and biofilms. Study of variations of sediment and water chemistry should predominantly include changes of pH and redox conditions, competition of dissolved ions and processes such as complexation by organic substances. Major questions relate to the potential reduction of sorption sites on minerals and degradation of organic carrier materials. All these processes will influence solution/solid equilibrium conditions and have to be studied prior to modelling the overall effects of pollutants on the water body and aquatic ecosystems. With respect to handling and remediation of contaminated river sediments, either in‐place or excavated, a chemical and biological characterization of the material, of the (disposal) site and of the long‐term processes is crucial. Passive techniques (e.g. in situ stabilization, subaqueous capping) provide economic advantages as there are no operation costs following their installation. However, the success of these ecological and geochemical engineering approaches is mainly based on an in‐depth knowledge of the underlying processes.