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31.
采用青藏高原东南部的水文气象资料,对比分析了该地区23个(区间)流域的年径流深、集中度与集中期、基流系数、退水系数等径流特征及其空间分布规律,并进一步研究了这些径流特征的控制因子。结果表明:该地区径流特征的空间分布规律为年径流深从东南(700~1 300 mm)向西北(<400 mm)递减,而集中度则呈相反的空间格局(从<0.44增加到>0.59);退水系数及基流系数,在低海拔地区随高程增大而增大(分别为0.55~0.69、0.51~0.73),但在高海拔地区则随高程增大而减小(0.74~0.42、0.79~0.63)。本研究发现,青藏东南径流特征空间规律的控制因子,具有显著的区域分异:在低海拔流域(平均高程<3 000 m),降水是径流特征的主要影响因子;而在高海拔流域(平均高程>3 000 m),仅径流深和集中度受降水控制,其他特征则主要受温度、冻土、地形等条件的共同影响。可见,由于青藏高原东南部降水和冻土对气候变化敏感,该地区水资源时空分布格局将面临很大的不确定性,对此应予以充分重视。 相似文献
32.
流域水文模型是研究水文规律和模拟水文过程的主要工具,而流域气候和下垫面条件的变化给径流的准确模拟带来了新的挑战。以渭河华县水文站以上流域为例,采用智能优化算法(SCE-UA)对HyMOD模型首先进行参数优选,并针对传统\"捆绑率定\"策略模拟效果不佳的实际情况,将集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)数据同化方法分别应用于HyMOD模型的状态变量更新、参数更新及状态—参数的同时更新,并在渭河流域近50年的日径流模拟中进行了效果检验。结果表明,状态—参数的双EnKF策略获得了最满意的效果,模拟精度比传统模型率定方法有显著提升。 相似文献
33.
香溪河流域是三峡库区的代表性流域,研究其径流量变化规律有重要意义,但目前尚缺乏对月尺度下各类径流统计量的分析。对此,以香溪河流域兴山水文站近40年（1969~2008年）径流量为基础,利用最大熵方法分析了香溪河流域的月径流变化特征。结果表明,最大熵方法可有效模拟香溪河流域的月径流量概率分布,体现其统计特征,优于P Ⅲ型分布;香溪河流域具有显著的丰枯季节变化,且平均月径流量最高点发生了变异;香溪河流域的月径流量存在缓慢下降的趋势,且1、5、9、10、12月份发生了变异。研究结果为水利工程规划、设计提供了依据。 相似文献
34.
We assessed the influence of hydropower on the flow characteristics of the river Tay, one of the UK's most heavily regulated catchments and important Atlantic salmon fisheries. Hydropower developments in the mid‐20th century preceded flow data collection, resulting in knowledge gaps over how far regulated flows deviate from natural and how ecosystem functioning might have been impacted. We used 29 unregulated catchments in and around the Tay to assess the relationships between hydroclimatic conditions, landscape structure and the overall flow regime, as well as the annual, monthly and daily flow metrics. This allowed the identification of flow characteristics by using an integrated suite of regression approaches (nonlinear, MLR and random forests) to assess likely impacts at 11 regulated sites. The results showed that the impacts of regulation are highly variable in both space and time. Headwater sub‐catchments are most heavily affected, and water imports or exports as part of hydropower schemes can increase or decrease annual runoff by up to 50%, respectively. On a monthly basis, regulation primarily increased summer low flows; winter high flows increased in catchments affected by water imports and reduced where there was a net water export. At larger catchment scales, impacts were relatively small, as unregulated tributaries re‐naturalize the flows and the effects of intra‐basin transfers balance. Non‐stationarity in climate and water use in the catchment dictates that adaptive management of flows may be necessary to protect ecosystems services. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
35.
Electrical resistance sensors are used as a novel approach to quantify streamflow continuity (continuous through time) and longitudinal connectivity (continuous through space) across watersheds in south‐eastern Arizona, USA. We demonstrate this approach by reporting on a spatial array of 21 sensors installed in streams supporting naturally perennial, intermittent and ephemeral flow on the US Army Garrison, Fort Huachuca. Continuity and connectivity were quantified based on a strict interpretation of continuous flow at an individual sensor (strict continuity) or simultaneous streamflow at multiple sensors (strict connectivity). In addition, we evaluated continuity and connectivity to include periods (<48 h) when in‐channel refuges may exist between streamflow events (refuge‐maintained continuity and connectivity). Continuous streamflow in intermittent reaches accounted for 34% of the 121‐day monitoring period (15 April–13 August 2010) and 28% of the summer monsoon period (1 July–13 August 2010). Streamflow in ephemeral reaches accounted for 1.5% and 2.3% of the entire monitoring and monsoon period, respectively. Canyon‐wide longitudinal connectivity was rare (<1%); however, substantial longitudinal connection occurred along extensive portions of individual canyons. The refuge‐maintained criteria increased continuity 2–8%, with less influence on connectivity (e.g. <3% increase in only some portions of canyons). Despite this result, the refuge‐maintained concept remains important because of its broad applicability to refuge persistence across aquatic species and hydro‐climatic regimes. The approach presented in this study supports the growing scientific research on the influence of longitudinal hydrologic connectivity on population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic river networks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
36.
A. C. Dutterer C. Mesing R. Cailteux M. S. Allen W. E. Pine P. A. Strickland 《河流研究与利用》2013,29(9):1110-1118
High human demand for limited water resources often results in water allocation trade‐offs between human needs and natural flow regimes. Therefore, knowledge of ecosystem function in response to varying streamflow conditions is necessary for informing water allocation decisions. Our objective was to evaluate relationships between river flow and fish recruitment and growth patterns at the Apalachicola River, Florida, a regulated river, during 2003–2010. To test relationships of fish recruitment and growth as responses to river discharge, we used linear regression of (i) empirical catch in fall, (ii) back‐calculated catch, via cohort‐specific catch curves, and (iii) mean total length in fall of age 0 largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, redear sunfish Lepomis microlophus and spotted sucker Minytrema melanops against spring–summer discharge measures in Apalachicola River. Empirical catch rates in fall for all three species showed positive and significant relationships to river discharge that sustained floodplain inundation during spring–summer. Back‐calculated catch at age 0 for the same species showed positive relationships to discharge measures, but possibly because of low sample sizes (n = 4–6), these linear regressions were not statistically significant. Mean total length for age 0 largemouth bass in fall showed a positive and significant relationship to spring–summer discharge; however, size in fall for age 0 redear sunfish and spotted sucker showed no relation to spring–summer discharge. Our results showed clear linkages among river discharge, floodplain inundation and fish recruitment, and they have implications for water management and allocation in the Apalachicola River basin. Managed flow regimes that reduce the frequency and duration of floodplain inundation during spring–summer will likely reduce stream fish recruitment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
37.
Streamflows recorded at 24 gauging stations in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado were analyzed to derive regional regression equations for estimating the natural flow duration and flood frequency in reaches where the natural flows are unknown or have been altered by diversion or regulation. The principal objective of this analysis is to determine whether the relatively high, infrequent, but geomorphically and ecologically important flows in the Rocky Mountains can be accurately estimated by regional flow duration equations. The region considered in this study is an area of relatively abundant runoff, and, consequently, intense water resources development. The specific streams analyzed here, however, are unaltered and remain nearly pristine. Regional flow duration equations are derived for two situations. When the mean annual discharge is known, flows ≧10% of the time can be estimated with an uncertainty of ±9% for the 10% exceedance flow, to ±11% for the 1.0% exceedance flow. When the mean annual discharge is unknown, the relatively high, infrequent flow can be estimated using the mean basin precipitation rate (in m3/s), and basin relief with an uncertainty of ±23% for the 10% exceedance flow to ±21% for the 1.0% exeedance flow. The uncertainty in estimated discharges using the equations derived in this analysis is substantially smaller than has been previously reported, especially for the geomorphically significant flows which are relatively large and infrequent. The improvement is due primarily to the quality of streamflow records analyzed and a well‐defined hydrologic region. 相似文献
38.
为提高季节性径流预报能力,分别耦合数值天气预报与新安江模型、分布式水文-土壤-植被(DHSVM)模型和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型对浙江省椒江流域2012—2020年的月径流量进行集合预报,采用等权重、不等权重和BP神经网络等不同方法对预报结果进行融合,比较了不同融合方法的预报效果与单一模型的最优预报效果。结果表明：BP神经网络融合法显著提高了预报精度,明显优于其他方法,并在春、夏、秋、冬4个季节都大幅延长了有效预见期,能够为流域水资源管理与利用提供更为准确的水情预报信息。 相似文献
39.
水文预报不确定性对水库防洪调度的影响分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
定量分析预报的不确定性,已成为防洪预报调度风险分析中的关键问题。本文基于Copula函数,提出了可以描述水文预报不确定性随时间演化特性的CUE(Copula-based Uncertainty Evolution Model)模型,并通过该模型模拟了水文预报不确定性序列;基于Monte-Carlo方法和模拟序列,计算了预报不确定性对水库防洪预报调度的影响。结果表明,CUE模型能够很好地模拟水文预报不确定性,采用预报预泄法,对三峡水库进行防洪调度,不会增加防洪风险率。 相似文献
40.
无测站流域径流预测区域化方法研究进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
无测站流域径流预测是地表水文研究的难题与挑战,而区域化方法,即将水文信息从有测站流域移植至无测站或缺测站流域估算径流量的过程,则为该问题提供了有效的解决办法。由于不同流域地文属性及气候特征各不相同,目前并无通用的方法,回归法、空间近似法及物理相似法是径流预测区域化研究中最常用的三种方法。基于此,本文阐明了三种方法的基本理论,综述了其研究进展、适用性及局限性,分析了区域化研究中常用水文模型及流域特征因子遴选的依据,总结了误差检验及不确定性分析的方法,并展望了径流预测区域化研究的未来发展方向。本文可为无测站流域区域化方法的选择提供基本依据与科学参考。 相似文献