Global Water Demand and Supply Projections

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling approach for projections of water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock, and irrigation at the basin or country level in a global scope. Particular emphasis is put on simulating water availability for crops taking into account total renewable water, non-irrigation water demand, water supply infrastructure, and economic and environmental policies at the basin or country level. This paper focuses on concepts and methodology involved in the modeling exercise. Data assessment and results are presented in a companion paper (Rosegrant and Cai, 2002).     

Model-based Regional Assessment of Water Use An Example for Semi-arid Northeastern Brazil

Abstract

Water use assessments are a necessary prerequisite for sustainable water resources management and planning in river basins, federal states, or countries. For reasons of transparency, flexibility, ease of update, and the possibility to generate scenarios of future water use, such assessments are best carried out by applying a water use model. To support water resources planning in two federal states of semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, the regional-scale water use model NoWUM was developed. It computes withdrawal and consumptive water use for each of 332 municipalities, distinguishing five water use sectors: irrigation, livestock, households, industry, and tourism. The model is suited to simulate the impact of global change and of management measures on water demand. Using NoWUM, the present-day water use situation in Ceará and Piauí is assessed. In addition, the impact of inter-annual climate variability and long-term climate change on irrigation requirements is considered. Scarce and uncertain input data lead to a high level of uncertainty in the model results. It is likely that water use in the most important sector, irrigation, is underestimated, while industrial water use is possibly overestimated. With some modifications, NoWUM has the potential to be applied for water use assessments in other data-poor regions of the globe.     

Economic Benefits of Reservoirs in the Irrigated Agriculture

Abstract

In the Jordan Valley of Jordan, the demand for water and ability to control its location, timing, quality, and quantity are becoming critical. The competition for water between the urban and agricultural sectors is increasing. There is a general trend in Jordan to reduce water allocated for agricultural use. Increasing the price of irrigation water or restricting the planted areas of water consuming crops, such as bananas, has been implemented during the recent growing season. The main objective of this paper is to highlight the impact of optimal allocation of irrigation water by building storage capacity on the economy of Jordan Valley. A linear programming technique is used, and the main results show that for proper management of water storage capacity, the suggested cropping pattern would generate $88.2 million, whereas the actual cropping pattern generated $74.4 million. The optimal water demand schedule is distributed according to the needs of the planted crops, and water demand has been allocated in an efficient way. In addition, appropriate management of storage capacity has solved the problem of water scarcity during the summer months, when peak production takes place. Storage-transfer system between locations played a significant role in reallocating irrigation water through the storage system. This compensates to a high degree in keeping the agricultural production more stable in physical and monetary units.     

Irrigation infrastructure development in the Limarí Basin in Central Chile: implications for adaptation to climate variability and climate change

One option to deal with climate variability in agriculture is to build irrigation infrastructure, although this may lead to the overdevelopment of water resources, leading to ‘basin closure’. The Limarí Basin, in central north Chile, has relied on irrigation infrastructure over the last 30 years to increase water supply reliability and extend irrigated acreage, especially for permanent crops. This situation has reduced adaptation opportunities in the basin, which is currently experiencing a severe drought that, according to climate change projections, is expected to persist in the future, with important consequences for the sustainability of agriculture production.     

Water productivity and water footprint: misguided concepts or useful tools in water management and policy?

Water productivity (WP) and water footprint (WFP) are popular concepts in research and discourses on water management. Yet there are concerns about their theoretical validity and practical value. This paper shows that the water production function, the concept with a sound theoretical foundation, is the basis for WP. Total WFP is the reciprocal of WP. The practical value of WP and WFP depends on the context of water use and stress. Maximizing WP, not a panacea to all water problems, mainly suits arid rainfed areas. In other regions, economic and marginal WP for increasing overall production should take precedence in water management and policy decisions.     

我国节水灌溉利益相关者关系分析

节水灌溉是一项涉及国家、地方、部门、个人之间利益全面调整的综合系统工程,也是一个涉及政府、主管部门、水管单位、用水户等多个利益主体的复杂多重博弈过程。运用马克思主义历史唯物观,分析了我国节水灌溉过程中机构、团体或个人之间的利益关系,从多元动态博弈的视角对节水灌溉利益相关者的博弈行为与博弈结果进行分析,论证了只有充分考虑各利益相关者的利益诉求,引导、激励和规范节水灌溉行为,用水户实施节水灌溉行为,政府、主管部门、水管单位和用水户才能同时获得最大收益,达到不同利益者共赢多赢的目的。     

全国节水增效示范项目不同节水模式效果分析

自1996年到2008年底中央已在全国31个省（自治区、直辖市）及新疆生产建设兵团完成了2000个节水灌溉增效示范区建设,对农业节水灌溉持续发展起到了良好的示范作用,根据示范项目的特点,通过调研分析总结了不同节水模式所产生的效益、效果及对灌溉的影响。     

水量监控调度信息化系统设计

针对甘肃省张掖市某灌区早期水量监测信息系统的缺陷和不完善性,设计了一套水量监控调度信息化系统。以先进的电子信息技术、网络技术、图像处理等技术为依托,对灌区的灌溉工程设施进行远程控制操作,实时监测各相关工程设施的运行状况,保证了整个系统的实时性和可靠性,达到了节水灌溉的目的。     

层状土壤条件下地下滴灌水氮运移模型及应用

基于土壤水分运动的动力学方程和溶质运移的对流-弥散方程,考虑地下滴灌灌水器流量随时间的变化,建立了层状土壤地下滴灌施用硝酸铵(NH4NO3)条件下水氮运移的数学模型。利用均质砂土(S)、均质壤土(L)、上砂下壤(SL)和砂土夹层(LSL)四种土壤的试验数据对模型进行了验证。结果指出,考虑土壤中灌水器流量随时间变化可稍改善土壤含水率和硝态氮的模拟精度。利用验证后的数学模型研究了灌水器流量(1.1、1.75和2.6L/h)、灌水器与犁底层相对位置对地下滴灌水氮分布的影响,模拟结果表明灌水器流量对含水率分布的影响不明显,但灌水器流量的增大可明显增加20~40cm土层硝态氮含量;灌水器与犁底层相对位置对水氮分布影响显著,灌水器位于犁底层中(埋深25cm)土壤表层干土层较薄、水氮向下运移深度较小,有利于减小土壤蒸发和避免水氮淋失。     

土壤初始含水量对注射灌土壤水分运移分布 特性影响试验研究

通过室内不同土壤初始含水量的注射灌水分入渗试验,研究了土壤初始含水量对注射灌土壤水分运移分布特性影响。研究表明：注射灌的累积入渗量与时间呈幂函数关系,土壤初始含水量越大,相同入渗时间的累积入渗量越大。在出水口下方土壤水分湿润范围较大,土壤含水量也较大,而在出水口上方则相反。土壤初始含水量越大,土壤湿润范围越大,距离出水口相同距离的土壤含水量越大。以上研究可为进一步补充注射灌理论技术提供基础。