Screening model for assessing ‘cost’ of minimum flow requirements in the Svartå River,Sweden

The minimum flow requirements in the Svartå River in Sweden are directed at maintaining fishlife and providing suitable dilution for waste flows. The implications of varying the minimum flow requirements in the river are examined using a mixed integer optimisation model. The model is formulated as a modified method-of-weights technique with the economic issues of hydro-electricity generation, irrigation and urban water supply placed in the objective function and the minimum flows specified within the constraint set. The integer component of the model is required to model the operating policy at the major flow regulation facility in the system and the restricted validity of the irrigation permits. Application of the model shows that in dry years where competition between minimum flow levels and the other economic uses, is most intense, the levels achieved by the various economic objectives are only slightly reduced even with significant increases in the minimum flow requirements. Variations in minimum flow requirements of up to 45% only produce changes of 10% or less in the economic objectives. The lack of sensitivity of the objective levels is due primarily to the level of control exerted indirectly on the whole system in dry years by the release regulation policy and the restricted validity of the irrigation permits. In normal to wet years these policies are not as restrictive and more choice is available. In such years, however, there is generally sufficient water to satisfy all requirements and allocation is not a critical issue. The model itself is formulated generally so that a range of scenarios beyond those examined specifically in the paper can be considered.     

大气电场倒转与突发钠层及突发E层的相关性

突发钠层(Sporadic Sodium Layer, Na_S)是中高层大气金属层最为显著的一种现象,其发生机制目前尚无定论。突发E层(Sporadic E layer, E_S)是等离子体密度异常增大的薄层,被认为与Na_S密切相关。为进一步研究Na_S及E_S事件之间相关性及影响因素,利用中国科学院“子午工程”2010～2018年合肥科大站宽带钠荧光共振激光雷达观测结果,并结合武汉左岭镇站数字测高仪及九峰站大气电场仪数据,分析大气电场倒转(即北向电场)对Na_S以及E_S事件的影响。在统计的91例Na_S事件中,发生于大气电场倒转时的比例为20/91; 同时,在发生Na_S事件的事例中,E_S消失或中断的比例较大(14/20),表明E_S可能以提供钠源的形式转化为Na_S。此外,在分析武汉左岭镇站数字测高仪数据的同时进行概率统计,结果表明:当大气电场倒转时,E_S临界频率减小甚至消失的概率较大(187/242),少数情况下可能造成临界频率增大甚至激发E_S生成(55/242); E_S虚高消失比例为179/242,E_S不变比例为27/242,E_S上升比例为23/242。综上所述,大气北向电场在一定程度上对E_S事件的发生有抑制作用,并对E_S事件的发生高度有明显影响。最后,对一种与电场倒转相关的突发钠层机制也进行了讨论。     

降水和植被变化对龙川江径流量的影响

基于龙川江大峡谷进出口水文控制站楚雄站和小黄瓜园站的长系列水文资料和流域森林盖度变化资料,结合小波分析方法,对降水、植被与径流量变化间相互关系以及径流量各时间尺度准周期变化的本质和形成机制进行了研究。结果表明:研究区降水量序列存在2 a、4 a和14.5 a左右的主周期,径流量序列具有2 a、4 a、6 a和22 a左右的主周期;其中径流量低频振荡所反映的是总径流中来自于壤中水径流和存在于裂隙中的地下水径流的准周期变化,而高频振荡反映的是总径流中来自于地面径流的准周期变化;径流量的年内变化和年际高频振荡主要是由降水量变化所引起的,而径流量序列6 a和22 a的主周期是由土壤和裂隙对降水量序列4 a和14.5 a的主周期滞后放大作用所形成的,径流量序列4 a的主周期是由干热河谷特殊自然地理环境所形成的;径流量与降水量间相互关系在1969年左右发生了突变     

引汉济渭工程运行调度模式研究

从引汉济渭工程运行调度的实际需求出发,设计了工程运行调度新模式并集成实现。基于Hadoop搭建工程运行调度大数据服务平台,基于数字地球构建了工程运行调度可视化仿真系统,基于云服务架构建立工程运行调度应用支撑平台,以主题、组件、知识图为牵引建立了工程运行调度应用支撑库,基于数字地球和应用支撑平台构建了工程调配水一体化数字水网,基于平台、数字水网、组件、知识图搭建了工程运行调度主题业务应用,实现了运行调度业务主题化云服务。该模式技术理念先进,应用灵活方便,适用性强,可为工程运行调度提供重要技术支撑,具有良好的应用前景。     

陕北无定河流域土壤侵蚀与植被覆盖和降雨关系研究

基于2000—2014年陕北无定河流域日降水、DEM、土壤类型、MODIS NDVI等数据,利用修正通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE)估算了流域土壤侵蚀情况,定量分析了植被覆盖和降雨在土壤侵蚀中的作用,结果表明:(1)无定河流域土壤侵蚀以微度侵蚀为主,平均占流域面积的88.35%,各土壤侵蚀等级面积比例随等级的升高而降低。2000—2014年微度侵蚀面积比例为下降趋势,轻度及以上等级面积比例均为上升趋势。(2)不考虑降雨因子影响时,无定河流域仍以微度侵蚀为主,且为增加趋势,而其他土壤侵蚀等级均为下降趋势。不考虑植被覆盖因子时,流域土壤侵蚀与模型计算结果的变化趋势基本一致。(3)植被覆盖对土壤侵蚀面积比例和变化速率的贡献率分别为13.67%和24.55%,而降雨作用达到86.33%和75.44%,表明降雨是流域土壤侵蚀的主要动力和控制因子,降雨变化主导着流域土壤侵蚀变化过程。     

混凝浑液面沉速与混凝剂投加量的关系研究

探讨了黄河高浊度水混凝沉淀浑液面沉速与自然沉速之间的相关性,经过对实验数据进行线性回归提出了混凝过程中浑液面沉速与自然沉速、含沙量、PAM投加量之间的经验公式。运用该经验公式得出的浑液面沉速计算值与实测相对误差在0.43%～12.27%之间。     

Effects of extreme floods on macroinvertebrate assemblages in tributaries to the Mohawk River,New York,USA

Climate change is forecast to bring more frequent and intense precipitation to New York which has motivated research into the effects of floods on stream ecosystems. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were sampled at 13 sites in the Mohawk River basin during August 2011, and again in October 2011, following historic floods caused by remnants of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. The annual exceedance probabilities of floods at regional flow‐monitoring sites ranged from 0.5 to 0.001. Data from the first 2 surveys, and from additional surveys done during July and October 2014, were assessed to characterize the severity of flood impacts, effect of seasonality, and recovery. Indices of total taxa richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; Hilsenhoff's biotic index; per cent model affinity; and nutrient biotic index‐phosphorus were combined to calculate New York State Biological Assessment Profile scores. Analysis of variance tests were used to determine if the Biological Assessment Profile, its component metrics, relative abundance, and diversity differed significantly (p ≤ .05) among the four surveys. Only total taxa richness and Shannon–Wiener diversity increased significantly, and abundance decreased significantly, following the floods. No metrics differed significantly between the July and August 2014 surveys which indicates that the differences denoted between the August and October 2011 surveys were caused by the floods. Changes in taxa richness, EPT richness, and diversity were significantly correlated with flood annual exceedance probabilities. This study increased our understanding of the resistance and resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities by showing that their assemblages were relatively impervious to extreme floods across the region.     

Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set

This study aims to improve the general flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS based on α-cut level sets which can reduce the uncertainty inherent in even fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. Since fuzzy TOPSIS leads to a crisp closeness for each alternative, it is frequently argued that fuzzy weights and fuzzy ratings should be in fuzzy relative closeness. Therefore, this study used a modified α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS to develop a spatial flood vulnerability approach for Han River in Korea, considering various uncertainties in weights derivation and crisp data aggregation. Two results from fuzzy TOPSIS and modified fuzzy TOPSIS were compared. Some regions which showed no or small ranking changes have their centro-symmetric distributions, while other regions whose rankings varied dynamically, have biased (anti-symmetric) distributions. It can be concluded that α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS produce more robust prioritization since more uncertainties can be considered. This method can be applied to robust spatial vulnerability or decision making in water resources management.     

淮河流域水资源短缺风险评估与时空分析

根据2003-2013年淮河流域五省的降水量、径流系数、人均水资源量、人均GDP、人口密度等相关数据,构建水资源短缺风险评价体系,用熵权法对指标赋值,运用可变模糊模型对淮河流域及各省的水资源短缺风险进行评估和时空差异分析。结果表明:2003-2013年间淮河流域水资源短缺风险值总体较高,且呈缓慢的增长趋势,2004年降水较少,风险值达到最高;十年间河南省风险增加最为明显,而山东省较为稳定,风险增加也最低;在淮河流域五个区域中,河南省的风险程度最高,达到3.52;江苏省、山东省次之;安徽省和湖北省相对较低,达到2.86和2.51。水资源短缺风险二级指标分析发现,危险性最强的是河南省,安徽省最小;水资源短缺易损性最强的是山东省,湖北省最小;水资源短缺暴露性最强的是江苏省,山东省最小;水资源短缺可恢复性最好的是湖北省,河南省最差。同时,所有评价指标中人口密度、人均GDP、降水量对水资源短缺风险的影响较大。     

金沙江下段植被NDVI变化趋势及其归因

基于MODIS NDVI数据及标准气象站数据、退耕还林资料,辅以空间统计、叠置分析和趋势分析等方法,研究了金沙江下段植被NDVI时空变化特征及其影响因素,结果表明:从年内来看,金沙江下段植被NDVI变化呈单峰型,3月份为最低值0.55,而9月份为最高值0.75,年际上10年以来植被覆盖总体呈现出增长趋势,且这种增长存在显著的空间异质性;研究区植被覆盖较好,植被NDVI平均值为0.65,海拔3 850m以下植被覆盖随海拔上升而增加,超过3 850m后随海拔升高呈降低趋势;年内植被NDVI受降水量的影响较气温更为明显,对两者均有2个月的滞后期,而年际上植被NDVI则受气温变化的影响较降水量更为突出,且大规模的植被恢复工程对金沙江下段植被覆盖的增加有重要贡献。