基于互信息的湖泊日水位预测——以西洞庭湖为例

鉴于传统的湖泊水位预测在输入因子选择时具有一定的盲目性,以西洞庭湖为例,利用基于互信息的输入因子选择法建立了日水位预测模型。按河流生态功能将水文年划分为枯水期、汛前涨水期、汛期、汛后退水期4个时期,然后分期计算影响湖泊日水位的自变量与日水位的互信息,并引入广义相关系数将互信息归一化,选出各时期互信息最大的自变量因子作为模型的输入变量。经过模型计算与数据分析可得:F检验结果显著,回归值与实测值的相关度高,剩余标准差小。由此证明用互信息筛选出的因子作为模型的输入变量能取得较好的精度并在实际中易于操作。     

钝感炸药在机械撞击下爆炸危险性评价

介绍了用炸药撞击声压级－实验药量曲线评价钝感炸药在机械撞击作用下发生爆炸的危险性的方法和测试结果，并与苏珊试验、滑道试验等测试结果进行了比较和讨论。     

汛限水位动态控制在石门水库主汛期调度中的应用研究

在汛限水位静态控制的运行方式下常导致水库汛期不敢蓄水,汛后库水位却常常达不到正常蓄水位,极大地限制了水库兴利效益,造成水资源浪费。以石门水库为例,针对其静态汛限水位运行的现状,分析该运行方式下对水库兴利效益的影响,提出采用汛限水位动态控制的方法来提高水资源利用率。实际调度中,结合石门水库天气、水文等预报信息,采用预蓄预泄方法,分析汛限水位动态控制的上下限,给出了动态控制的调度策略,并以"20110728"洪水对比了两种调度方式。结果表明:当预报降雨或洪水偏小时,可抬高汛限水位最高至617.5 m,拦蓄洪尾,有效增加水库的蓄水量;当预报降雨或洪水偏大时,可降低汛限水位最低至610.0 m,腾空库容,迎接洪水。     

Reliability analysis of a repairable duplex system

We analyse the survival time of a repairable duplex system characterised by cold standby and by a pre-emptive priority rule. We allow general probability distributions for failure and repair. Moreover, an important realistic feature of the system is the general assumption that the non-priority unit has a memory. This combination of features has not been analysed in the previous literature. Our (new) methodology is based on a concatenation of a Cauchy-type integral representation of the modified Heaviside unit-step function and a two-sided stochastic inequality. Finally, we introduce a security interval related to a security level and a suitable risk-criterion based on the survival function of the system. As a practical application, we analyse some particular cases of the survival function jointly with the security interval corresponding to a security level of 90.     

Continuous Levels‐of‐Detail and Visual Abstraction for Seamless Molecular Visualization

Molecular visualization is often challenged with rendering of large molecular structures in real time. We introduce a novel approach that enables us to show even large protein complexes. Our method is based on the level‐of‐detail concept, where we exploit three different abstractions combined in one visualization. Firstly, molecular surface abstraction exploits three different surfaces, solvent‐excluded surface (SES), Gaussian kernels and van der Waals spheres, combined as one surface by linear interpolation. Secondly, we introduce three shading abstraction levels and a method for creating seamless transitions between these representations. The SES representation with full shading and added contours stands in focus while on the other side a sphere representation of a cluster of atoms with constant shading and without contours provide the context. Thirdly, we propose a hierarchical abstraction based on a set of clusters formed on molecular atoms. All three abstraction models are driven by one importance function classifying the scene into the near‐, mid‐ and far‐field. Moreover, we introduce a methodology to render the entire molecule directly using the A‐buffer technique, which further improves the performance. The rendering performance is evaluated on series of molecules of varying atom counts.     

非均匀卵砾石粗糙床面的分形特征

针对传统方法刻画粗糙床面总体特征存在缺陷的问题,将分形几何理论引入非均匀卵砾石粗糙床面特征研究,以卵砾石床面激光扫描试验资料为基础,探讨了分形尺度区宽度与中值粒径d50的关系,分析了覆盖基准面对分形维数的影响,研究了床面整体与局部分形维数的特征与联系,获得了分形维数随床面颗粒组成及高程统计参数的变化规律。结果表明:分形尺度区宽度与床面颗粒中值粒径d50有关,上临界尺度可取为1.5d50;分形维数与覆盖基准面位置有关,覆盖基准面距平均床面的距离越大,分形维数越大且逐渐失真,为有效量化和区分床面粗糙特征,覆盖基准面宜取平均床面;粗糙床面分形维数具有良好的稳定性,局部分形维数变异性很小,并与整体分形维数接近;粗糙床面的分形维数与颗粒大小、级配组成及床面高程统计参数有关,中值粒径越大,颗粒组成越均匀,床面高程极差、标准差、偏度(绝对值)和峰度越大,分形维数越小。     

库水升降速率对老蛇窝滑坡稳定性影响分析

通过监测资料分析和滑坡稳定性数值计算,探讨了三峡库水位在不同升降速率下对老蛇窝滑坡稳定性的影响规律。研究结果表明,理论上库水位上升有利于老蛇窝滑坡的稳定,但实际运行中库水位上升是不利于滑坡稳定的,因为库水浸泡会使滑坡前缘塌岸;老蛇窝滑坡为动水压力型滑坡,最主要诱发因素为库水位的下(骤)降;老蛇窝滑坡稳定性的临界库水位调度速率为0.9 m/d,即当库水位下降速率大于0.9 m/d时,滑坡K值小于1。     

Limits of compensation in a failed antenna array

In large antenna arrays, the possibility of occurrence of faults in some of the radiating elements cannot be precluded at all times. In such situations, the radiation pattern of the array gets distorted, mostly with an increase in sidelobe level and decrease in gain. Although it is not possible to restore the pattern fully by rearranging the excitations of the functioning elements, compensation methods have been reported in the literature for restoring one performance parameter of the array and making a trade‐off on some other parameter. In this article, we have made a study on the tolerance level of this compensation process. One part of the study deals with the thinning in the failed array, that is, to find a limit on the minimum number of functioning elements of the array that can restore the digital beamforming of the failed array. The second part of study deals with finding the maximum number of element failures that can be compensated. The study was carried out by optimizing the amplitude excitations of the failed array. Instead of classical optimization techniques, particle swarm optimization was used for the compensation process. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J RF and Microwave CAE 24:635–645, 2014.     

基于MultiLayer水平集的脑MRI图像分割框架

提出了一种新的自动初始化水平集的方法和基于MultiLayer水平集的活动轮廓模型。该模型同时进行偏移场去除和图像分割,因此可以有效地克服灰度不均匀性的影响。最后利用了大脑皮层的距离信息,在框架中增加了厚度约束项。实验结果显示,相比著名的LBF模型,该框架不但可以获得更高的分割精度,而且分割时间也大大减少。     

基于作战实验的工程装备保障评估方法研究

为满足工程装备保障评估的要求和实现工程装备保障更为细致的仿真分析,提出了利用作战实验理论对工程装备保障评估方法研究的建设构想.在描述工程装备保障评估分析一般过程的基础上,从工程装备实体、保障要求等角度出发构建工程装备保障评估分析仿真模型,实现了对象间的交互作用、关系和消息传递,反映了“保障”作战任务、实体、功能、交互、活动等内在逻辑.用面向服务的高层体系结构（HLA）方法为工程装备保障评估分析仿真系统提供集成方法,为进一步仿真系统的论证、设计、开发提供了坚实基础.