Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts

Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run boundary values or steady-state 'endpoints' – fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected long-run inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of 'moving endpoint' time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents.     

分形粗糙面的电磁散射－扩展边界条件

用扩展边界条件方法对分形粗糙良导体面及介质面的电磁散射问题进行了分析。用推广的Floquet模式，在分界面处将场分量用Fourier级数展开，根据边界条件及扩展边界条件得到了水平极化和垂直极化散射场的幅度分量的表达式。用其它近似方法（Kirchhoff和Rayleigh方法）及能量守恒准则验证了此方法的有效性。     

河口水流、波浪、潮流、泥沙、河床变形二维数学模型

根据河口“波浪掀沙，潮流输沙”的泥沙运动机制，引入“波浪幅射应力”反应波浪对水体和泥沙的驱动力．考虑波浪对底部泥沙作用力、波浪对水流挟沙能力的影响及风场对水流和泥沙运动的影响．同时考虑泥沙粒径大小、水体含盐度、含沙量及水流紊动程度等因素对絮凝沉速的影响．用ＡＤＩ算法求解沿水深平均方程，破开算子法解悬移质不平衡输沙方程及河床变形方程，引入通度概念处理岸滩不规则边界，建立河口水流、波浪、潮流、泥沙、河床变形二维数学模型．通过实测资料及卫星摇感图像对所建数学模型进行检验，表明它可以较好地预测河口泥沙的运动     

地震数据油气预测中的属性优化方法

本文简单介绍了智能信息处理中新出现的RoughSet（RS）理论及属性选择方法，从双相介质地震波传播理论角度，探讨了地震数据油气预测属性优化原理，提出了基于RS理论的地震数据油气预测属性优化方法。实际应用表明；本方法速度快、易实现，而且在优选属性、最大程度地减少提取地震属性种数、提高分类正确率等方面，明显优于其它方法。本方法将成为地震数据油气预测的一种有效手段。     

面向对象系统中的特性表机制与复合对象

本文主要讨论特性表机制与复合对象的概念、功能及实现．在基于知识的面向对象系统中引入特性表机制与复合对象概念的目的在于增强系统的知识表达能力．文中提出的特性表机制包括了三种类型的特性说明表：类说明特性表、继承关系特性表和变量特性说明表．复合对象在系统中是通过引入一个称为“影子类”的新概念来构造和实现的．     

NUMERICAL MODEL FOR DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOW

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Neural networks for contract bridge bidding

The objective of this study is to explore the possibility of capturing the reasoning process used in bidding a hand in a bridge game by an artificial neural network. We show that a multilayer feedforward neural network can be trained to learn to make an opening bid with a new hand. The game of bridge, like many other games used in artificial intelligence, can easily be represented in a machine. But, unlike most games used in artificial intelligence, bridge uses subtle reasoning over and above the agreed conventional system, to make a bid from the pattern of a given hand. Although it is difficult for a player to spell out the precise reasoning process he uses, we find that a neural network can indeed capture it. We demonstrate the results for the case of one-level opening bids, and discuss the need for a hierarchical architecture to deal with bids at all levels.     

A semi-analytic boundary element method for parabolic problems

A new semi-analytic solution method is proposed for solving linear parabolic problems using the boundary element method. This method constructs a solution as an eigenfunction expansion using separation of variables. The eigenfunctions are determined using the dual reciprocity boundary element method. This separation of variables-dual reciprocity method (SOV-DRM) allows a solution to be determined without requiring either time-stepping or domain discretisation. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the SOV-DRM is found to improve as time increases. These properties make the SOV-DRM an attractive technique for solving parabolic problems.     

灌河潮流界位置确定与港口防淤探讨

盐城市位于江苏省中部,地处黄海之滨,承接里下河腹部区的排水,区内入海河流众多,在这些入海河流上大多建有挡潮闸坝。但由于盐城市近海为淤积型海岸,闸坝的建设改变了河口的自然状态,造成港口下游淤积严重,排水不畅。灌河作为江苏省沿海唯一下游没有建挡潮闸的重要入海河流,仍为自然状态,下游港口未淤积。本文通过对灌河水体涨、落潮中氯离子含量的监测,找出海水上溯的最大距离,确定其影响范围,为其它入海流河流的防淤提供借鉴。     

人工神经网络技术在板料激光弯曲中的应用

基于人工神经网络基本理论,建立在板料激光弯曲中预测材料表面最高温度、弯曲角度的BP网络模型。借助于MATLAB仿真软件中的神经网络工具箱作为开发平台,将试验样本数据和经过试验验证的数值计算结果作为补充的样本数据用于BP网络的训练,利用训练好的BP网络对非线性的样本数据规律进行拟合,实现激光加工工艺参数的优化,为实际生产和加工提供有效的依据。