引黄涵闸观测设施埋设预算定额编制论述

现行的水利工程概算编制工作中,观测设施埋设费用大部分采用指标估算的方法计价,准确性不高,导致报价与工程实际出现严重偏差,给建设部门造成不应有的损失.文章以黄河引黄涵闸测压管埋设预算定额为例,阐述观测设施预算定额的编制方法,并提供测算的单价水平,给建设单位、施工单位、设计单位提供参考.     

经济波动与建筑材料价格相关性分析

经济波动与建筑材料价格的波动存在着一定的相关性,往往经济的增长超前于材料价格的上涨,而材料价格的回落却超前于经济的滑落,不同材料由于各自的特性,与经济波动表现了不同程度的相关关系,而且上涨幅度与回落方式也不同。     

Adaptive signal processing of asset price dynamics with predictability analysis

In this paper we illustrate the optimal filtering of log returns of commodity prices in which both the mean and volatility are modulated by a hidden Markov chain with finite state space. The optimal estimate of the Markov chain and the parameters of the price model are given in terms of discrete-time recursive filters. We provide an application on a set of high frequency gold price data for the period 1973-2006 and analyse the h-step ahead price predictions against the Diebold-Kilian metric. Within the modelling framework where the mean and volatility are switching regimes, our findings suggest that a two-state hidden Markov model is sufficient to describe the dynamics of the data and the gold price is predictable up to a certain extent in the short term but almost impossible to predict in the long term. The proposed model is also benchmarked with ARCH and GARCH models with respect to price predictability and forecasting errors.     

Supervised classification of share price trends

Share price trends can be recognized by using data clustering methods. However, the accuracy of these methods may be rather low. This paper presents a novel supervised classification scheme for the recognition and prediction of share price trends. We first produce a smooth time series using zero-phase filtering and singular spectrum analysis from the original share price data. We train pattern classifiers using the classification results of both original and filtered time series and then use these classifiers to predict the future share price trends. Experiment results obtained from both synthetic data and real share prices show that the proposed method is effective and outperforms the well-known K-means clustering algorithm.     

Truth-Telling Reservations

We present a mechanism for reservations of bursty resources that is both truthful and robust. It consists of option contracts whose pricing structure induces users to reveal the true likelihoods that they will purchase a given resource. Users are also allowed to adjust their options as their likelihood changes. This scheme helps users save cost and the providers to plan ahead so as to reduce the risk of under-utilization and overbooking. The mechanism extracts revenue similar to that of a monopoly provider practicing temporal pricing discrimination with a user population whose preference distribution is known in advance.     

无线传感器网络中一种能量高效的分布式分簇算法

提出了一种适用于无线传感器网络的能量高效的分布式分簇算法（ＥＥＤＣ）,该算法使具有较高剩余能量及距离基站较近的节点有更大的机会成为簇头．理论分析表明该算法通信开销较小,而且有效地均衡了节点的能量消耗．为了确保ＥＥＤＣ 的正确性、完整性和可靠性,利用形式化方法———着色网对其关键属性进行建模和分析．仿真结果表明,ＥＥＤＣ 有效地延长了网络生命周期,提高了网络的能耗效率．     

钢铁企业合同计划与余材匹配的集成优化方法

钢铁企业的合同计划和余材匹配的集成优化是解决钢铁企业面向订单生产的关键技术.由于该问题复杂,涉及因素多,求解难度大,对此提出一个带有提前拖期惩罚的联合计划优化的数学模型,并提出一种嵌有"优先适合启发式"的遗传算法.该方法利用背包问题的求解思路改进了染色体的性能,从而加快了遗传算法的求解速度.将该模型及算法应用于实际钢铁企业的计划编排中,取得了满意的效果.     

如何实现合同网上审批

合同审批是每个企事业单位的重要工作之一,每个合同的签订都需要经过相关职能部门的审核,这个过程往往要花费较长的时间,但随着计算机网络、通信网络、软件技术的不断发展和进步,通过网上审批合同来提高工作效率、节约成本、增强顾客满意度已成为现实。本文从合同网上审批的研发背景、系统功能、系统结构、系统特点及其带来的效益等方面进行论述,并对该系统存在的困难、未来发展趋势等进行分析。     

考虑EV充放电意愿的园区综合能源系统双层优化调度

随着电动汽车的普及度越来越高,工业园区的电动汽车用户日益增多,其充放电行为对园区综合能源系统规划和运行带来极大挑战。本文提出了考虑电动汽车充放电意愿的园区综合能源系统双层优化调度。首先基于动态实时电价、电池荷电量、电池损耗补偿、额外参与激励等因素建立充放电意愿模型,在此基础上得到改进的电动汽车充放电模型;然后,以园区综合能源系统总成本最小和电动汽车充电费用最小为目标建立双层优化调度模型,通过KKT条件将内层模型转化为外层模型的约束条件,从而快速稳定的实现单层模型的求解;最后,进行仿真求解,设置3种不同场景,对比了所提模型与一般充放电意愿模型,验证了文中所提引入EV充放电意愿模型的园区综合能源系统双层优化调度的有效性和可行性,具有一定的经济效益。     

含储能参与的日前市场价值公平分配机制

现有的节点边际电价机制中,由于传统发电商具有市场操控力,当储能独立参与市场出清时,各发电商采取策略性报价,打压并挤占储能电站的市场份额,阻碍了储能电站参与市场出清,间接导致市场出清总成本增大。为此,文中提出一种包含传统机组以及储能电站参与的市场竞争机制。首先,分析现有市场结算机制的弊端以及阻碍储能参与市场出清的原因;其次,建立含储能参与的市场出清模型,采用样本均值近似求解二阶段随机规划模型;接着,基于VCG结算机制,提出适应储能参与的日前市场价值分配机制;最后,提出解决激励相容而造成的系统收支不平衡问题的策略。文中采用修改后的IEEE30节点为例,证明该机制满足激励相容、收支平衡以及削弱传统发电商的市场操控力等性质,同时储能的参与将会减小系统出清总成本,降低市场价格剧烈波动的风险。