Probabilistic analysis of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment

Sources and current methods of analysis of uncertainty from randomness, fuzziness and ignorance or incomplete knowledge in seismic hazard assessment problem are briefly discussed at beginning; understandings of the authors are then presented in the following order. All three types of uncertainty come from incomplete knowledge. Probabilistic method can be applied to all of them, objective probability for random factors and subjective probability for the other two types of uncertain factors. Discrete subjective probability mass functions for incomplete and fuzzy factors can be obtained from logic-tree and membership functions respectively. Fractile curves may be used to show the scattering of any uncertainty factor, but a unified probabilistic treatment may be applied to any combination of all three types of uncertainty.     

静电火灾的产生及其防治

文章详细分析了静电产生的机理，指出积聚静电电荷的多少与材料的电阻率和介电常数有关。讨论了静电火灾发生的条件，指出静电火灾的发生具有隐蔽性、复杂性和突发性。但只要对其规律进行深入地研究，可以找到有效地防止静电火灾发生的办法。     

Coupling GIS with Hydrologic and Hydraulic Flood Modelling

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been recognised as a powerful means to integrate and analyse data from various sources in the context of comprehensive floodplain management. As part of this comprehensive approach to floodplain management, it is very important to be able to predict the consequences of different scenarios in terms of flooded areas and associated risk. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling plays a crucial role and there is much to gain in incorporating these modelling capabilities in GIS. This is still a rather complex task and research is being done on the full integration of these models. Interfacing between these models and GIS may be a very efficient way of overcoming the difficulties and getting very good results in terms of engineering practice. This paper presents results based on the use of Intergraph GIS coupled with Idrisi GIS. Using these two systems substantially increased the flexibility of using GIS as a tool for flood studies. A lumped (XSRAIN) and a distributed (OMEGA) hydrologic models were used to simulate flood hydrographs. The well known HEC-2 Hydraulic model was used to compute flooded areas. These models were applied in the Livramento catchment with very good results. The computation of flooded areas for different flood scenarios, and its representation in GIS, can be used in the assessment of affected property and associated damages. This is a very useful GIS-based approach to floodplain management.     

过氧化氢爆炸事故浅析

通过两起过氧化氢(双氧水)爆炸事故，分析了过氧化氢由于本身具有较大的潜能，很不稳定，当受热、泄漏、撞击、摩擦时，易分解放热产生高温，造成火灾爆炸事故，对火灾爆炸反应过程与爆炸机理进行了探讨。     

一套常减压装置适应性改造HSE动态调查

运用危险性分析和工作危害分析法,对一套常减压装置适应性改造的危险性进行分析, 找出主要影响因素,制订对策,确保装置改造和生产安全。     

液化石油气储罐火灾模拟试验——池火灾环境下

液化石油气储罐在火灾作用下，其内部的温度和压力会迅速上升，从而可能引起储罐爆炸，进而酿成危害性更大的二次灾害。为此，对液化石油气储罐在池火灾环境下的热响应情况进行了大量的模拟试验研究。研究发现，储罐在池火灾作用下存在着明显的热分层，热分层加速了储罐内部压力升高的速度；储罐内部温度分布和压力响应受到储罐类型、充装水平等因素的影响，压力随时间的变化关系可以用三次多项式加以拟合。     

液化石油气"溢出"的危害及对策

对液化石油气的性质及危险进行了论述,分析了液化石油气溢出后对人员及设备的危害,提出了阻止蔓延、排除下风向火源等减轻灾害的对策。     

Simulation of smoke from a burning vehicle and pollution levels caused by traffic jam in a road tunnel

Detailed analyses of smoke movement from a burning vehicle in a road tunnel have been carried out for the westbound Melbourne City Link tunnel. The time-averaged equations for velocity, pressure, temperature, and mass fraction of emissions were solved for transient condition using the CFD software FLUENT 6.0. For the analysis, a burning bus was assumed to release an equivalent energy of burning 500 l of diesel in 6 min, with vehicles upstream of the fire at a standstill. On the other hand, the vehicles downstream of the fire had enough time to escape from the tunnel through the exit portal. Due to the action of jet fans, most of the smoke was pushed downstream of the fire. The smoke had also dispersed about 55 m upstream of the fire, putting the passengers in this region at great risk. The emissions released from the vehicles in the jam, with their engines running, also posed a threat to human health. Within 8 min after the fire had started, the mass concentrations of O₂, CO₂ and CO were in the ranges of 0.12–0.15, 0.08–0.11 and 0.0006–0.0014, respectively. Therefore, quick evacuation of the passengers is essential in the event of a fire in the tunnel.     

Analytical prediction of composite beams response in fire situations

In this paper an extension of the method of the Fourier series expansion to the fire analysis of composite beams is presented. In particular the extension concerns the introduction of the temperature dependent interaction of all the components: steel beams, concrete slab and steel connectors. These last are considered of finite stiffness, and a proper account is given to the combined effect of thermal degradation of the properties, and stress amplification caused by the differential thermal expansion across the interface.The proposed method compares very well with some experimental fire tests of simply supported and framed composite beams. Due to its relative simplicity and speed, it can be used for design purposes in evaluating the critical temperature in terms of critical deflection. Finally we recall that the method is capable of dealing with every type of fastening distribution, such as discontinuous or variable length.     

Explosion risks during the confined storage of bituminous coals : Calculation of gaseous hydrogen accumulation in ship holds

Bituminous coal piles stored in the open air can undergo autocatalytic heating accompanied by the emission of small but appreciable amounts of molecular hydrogen. When the coal is contained in a confined space and the temperature reaches 40°C, accumulation of hydrogen is expected. This process has been observed for a wide variety of bituminous coals. The amount of hydrogen gas expected to accumulate in the air pocket above the coal cargo in ship holds (assuming that the coal's temperature approaches 40°C during the voyage) has been calculated. The results clearly indicate that in most cases the hydrogen concentration will be appreciably above the lower explosion limit in air. Hence when bituminous coals are stored in a confined space (e.g. a ship hold), the explosive risk of hydrogen should be taken into account.