基于粒子群优化和支持向量机的花粉浓度预测模型

为了提高花粉浓度预报的准确率，解决现有花粉浓度预报准确率不高的问题，提出了一种基于粒子群优化（PSO）算法和支持向量机（SVM）的花粉浓度预报模型。首先，综合考虑气温、气温日较差、相对湿度、降水量、风力、日照时数等多种气象要素，选择与花粉浓度相关性较强的气象要素构成特征向量；其次，利用特征向量与花粉浓度数据建立SVM预测模型，并使用PSO算法找出最优参数；然后利用最优参数优化花粉浓度预测模型；最后，使用优化后的模型对花粉未来24 h浓度进行预测，并与未优化的SVM、多元线性回归法（MLR）、反向神经网络（BPNN）作对比。此外使用优化后的模型对某市南郊观象台和密云两个站点进行逐日花粉浓度预测。实验结果表明，相比其他预报方法，所提方法能有效提高花粉浓度未来24 h预测精度，并具有较高的泛化能力。     

On the capacity of the state‐dependent interference relay channel

This paper considers the state‐dependent interference relay channel (SIRC) in which one of the two users may operate as a secondary user and the relay has a noncausal access to the signals from both users. For discrete memoryless SIRC, we first establish the achievable rate region by carefully merging Han‐Kobayashi rate splitting encoding technique, superposition encoding, and Gelfand‐Pinsker encoding technique. Then, based on the achievable rate region that we derive, the capacity of the SIRC is established in many different scenarios including (a) the weak interference regime, (b) the strong interference regime, and (c) the very strong interference regime. This means that our capacity results contain all available known results in the literature. Next, the achievable rate region and the associated capacity results are also evaluated in the case of additive Gaussian noise. Additionally, many numerical examples are investigated to show the value of our theoretical derivations.     

Forging furnace with thermochemical waste-heat recuperation by natural gas reforming: Fuel saving and heat balance

This paper considers thermochemical recuperation (TCR) of waste-heat using natural gas reforming by steam and combustion products. Combustion products contain steam (H₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and ballast nitrogen (N₂). Because endothermic chemical reactions take place, methane steam-dry reforming creates new synthetic fuel that contains valuable combustion components: hydrogen (H₂), carbon monoxide (CO), and unreformed methane (CH₄). There are several advantages to performing TCR in the industrial furnaces: high energy efficiency, high regeneration rate (rate of waste-heat recovery), and low emission of greenhouse gases (CO₂, NO_x). As will be shown, the use of TCR is significantly increasing the efficiency of industrial furnaces – it has been observed that TCR is capable of reducing fuel consumption by nearly 25%. Additionally, increased energy efficiency has a beneficial effect on the environment as it leads to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.     

High-rate capability of carbon-coated micron-sized hexagonal TT-Nb2O5 composites for lithium-ion battery

With excellent specific capacity, superior cycle stability, safety and strong practical, Nb₂O₅ has been considered as one of the prospective anode materials for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). However, current study suggests that Nb₂O₅ electrode materials for LIBs still face the vital issues of low electrical conductivity and poor rate performance. Therefore, carbon-coated TT-Nb₂O₅ materials are designed and synthesized through solid state method in this work, which present high specific capacity (228 mA h g^?1 at 0.2C), satisfactory rate properties (107 mA h g^?1 at 20 C). The outstanding electrochemical property can not only give the credit to the pseudocapacitance effect of TT-Nb₂O₅, but also attribute to introduction of carbon. The homogeneous carbon-coated materials enhance the electrical conductivity, increase the electron transmission speed and alleviate particle crushing. This research not only offers a new method for preparing excellent electrode materials, but also provides a kind of excellent anode material with prospective application for LIBs.     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

Research on the identification performance of UHF RFID system considering the correlation of cascaded channel

The identification rate of UHF RFID system was restricted by multipath propagation effects.The system identification performance was studied considering the correlation coefficient between forward and reverse channels.Based on the generalized Rician fading channel model,the analytical expression of identification rate was derived under independent,full correlation and correlation cases.Compared with the existing analysis,the proposed uniform calculation formula of identification rate was for any correlation coefficient and kinds of channel conditions.The numerical computation and Monte-carlo simulations show that the influences of different correlation coefficients,channel conditions,sensitivity and distance on the identification rate.     

Preventive replacement policies with time of operations,mission durations,minimal repairs and maintenance triggering approaches

When a mission arrives at a random time and lasts for a duration, it becomes an interesting problem to plan replacement policies according to the health condition and repair history of the operating unit, as the reliability is required at mission time and no replacement can be done preventively during the mission duration. From this viewpoint, this paper proposes that effective replacement policies should be collaborative ones gathering data from time of operations, mission durations, minimal repairs and maintenance triggering approaches. We firstly discuss replacement policies with time of operations and random arrival times of mission durations, model the policies and find optimum replacement times and mission durations to minimize the expected replacement cost rates analytically. Secondly, replacement policies with minimal repairs and mission durations are discussed in a similar analytical way. Furthermore, the maintenance triggering approaches, i.e., replacement first and last, are also considered into respective replacement policies. Numerical examples are illustrated when the arrival time of the mission has a gamma distribution and the failure time of the unit has a Weibull distribution. In addition, simple case illustrations of maintaining the production system in glass factories are given based on the assumed data.     

Effect of an abrupt change in pulling rate on microstructures of directionally solidified Al2O3-Er3Al5O12 eutectic and off-eutectic composite ceramics

Directionally solidified microstructures of Al₂O₃-Er₃Al₅O₁₂ eutectic and off-eutectic in situ composite ceramics were explored under abrupt-change pulling rate conditions. Corresponding temperature distributions and interface locations were studied. In eutectic composition, fluctuation of eutectic spacing occurred when the pulling rate increased abruptly. A gradually increase or abrupt increase in eutectic spacing was observed when the pulling rate decreased abruptly. In hypoeutectic and hypereutectic compositions, formation of the primary phases were suppressed when the pulling rate increased abruptly from 10?µm/s to 100?µm/s, while primary phases precipitated when the pulling rate decreased abruptly from 100?µm/s to 10?µm/s. The interface altitude decreased after the pulling rate increased abruptly, but increased after the pulling rate decreased abruptly. The liquid composition restriction (around the eutectic composition) at the eutectic interface plays an important role in the suppression of the primary dendrite and coupled eutectic oxides can be obtained in off-eutectic compositions even under higher solidification rate conditions.     

Formation of Chlorotriophenoxy Radicals from Complete Series Reactions of Chlorotriophenols with H and OH Radicals

The chlorothiophenoxy radicals (CTPRs) are key intermediate species in the formation of polychlorinated dibenzothiophenes/thianthrenes (PCDT/TAs). In this work, the formation of CTPRs from the complete series reactions of 19 chlorothiophenol (CTP) congeners with H and OH radicals were investigated theoretically by using the density functional theory (DFT) method. The profiles of the potential energy surface were constructed at the MPWB1K/6-311+G(3df,2p)//MPWB1K/6-31+G(d,p) level. The rate constants were evaluated by the canonical variational transition-state (CVT) theory with the small curvature tunneling (SCT) contribution at 600–1200 K. The present study indicates that the structural parameters, thermal data, and rate constants as well as the formation potential of CTPRs from CTPs are strongly dominated by the chlorine substitution at the ortho-position of CTPs. Comparison with the study of formation of chlorophenoxy radicals (CPRs) from chlorophenols (CPs) clearly shows that the thiophenoxyl-hydrogen abstraction from CTPs by H is more efficient than the phenoxyl-hydrogen abstraction from CPs by H, whereas the thiophenoxyl-hydrogen abstraction from CTPs by OH is less impactful than the phenoxyl-hydrogen abstraction from CPs by OH. Reactions of CTPs with H can occur more readily than that of CTPs with OH, which is opposite to the reactivity comparison of CPs with H and OH.