A neural network bid/no bid model: the case for contractors in Syria

Despite the crucial importance of the ‘bid/no bid’ decision in the construction industry, it has been given little attention by researchers. This paper describes the development and testing of a novel bid/no bid model using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. A back‐propagation network consisting of an input buffer with 18 input nodes, two hidden layers and one output node was developed. This model is based on the findings of a formal questionnaire through which key factors that affect the ‘bid/no bid’ decision were identified and ranked according to their importance to contractors operating in Syria. Data on 157 real‐life bidding situations in Syria were used in training. The model was tested on another 20 new projects. The model wrongly predicted the actual bid/no bid decision only in two projects (10%) of the test sample. This demonstrates a high accuracy of the proposed model and the viability of neural network as a powerful tool for modelling the bid/no bid decision‐making process. The model offers a simple and easy‐to‐use tool to help contractors consider the most influential bidding variables and to improve the consistency of the bid/no bid decision‐making process. Although the model is based on data from the Syrian construction industry, the methodology would suggest a much broader geographical applicability of the ANN technique on bid/no bid decisions.     

Rational under‐pricing in bidding strategy: a real options model

Under‐pricing in construction tenders is a common phenomenon and is commonly explained by the need of cash flows and penetration strategy. However, these explanations involve profit cutting and therefore are not plausible in explaining a long‐term persistent phenomenon of under‐pricing. A real options model is proposed and using the binomial lattice method a real‐life construction project tender was analysed to examine how management flexibility and uncertainty provide real options value. When uncertainties of cost items in a tender exist and choices are available to defer and switch modes of construction, then a valuable option is available to the bidders. It amounts to about 4% of the lump sum tendered in our case. The under‐priced portion is the options value which the bidder is willing to pay for the flexibility and the uncertainty. These findings enable contractors to be more competitive and to estimate construction costs more accurately in devising their bid strategies.     

谈发包方如何进行造价管理

对2013版清单与2008版清单的主要款项进行了分析,指出2013版规范加强了发包方在招投标阶段的造价控制工作和对工程实施阶段的监督管理,规范了工程量清单招标投标的工程量清单计价行为。     

关于建筑工程中的低价中标与工程索赔问题

论述了当前在建设工程招投标过程中产生低价中标的原因及其危害，并列举工程案例分析了工程索赔产生的原因和工程索赔的处理，以期完善建筑工程招投标工作。     

施工企业投标报价中的成本分析

从我国现行的招投标方式的报价组成着手,分析企业成本,讨论施工企业在投标过程中如何界定自身的成本,为其在投标时提供标价模式.     

激励相容的输配分开电力市场竞价机制初探

为使参与市场竞争的发电公司、配电公司和大用户在目前竞价市场上报真实运营特性参数,基于机制设计理论构造了具有激励相容特性的输配分开电力市场竞价机制的数学模型并证明了其激励相容特性。以具有5家发电公司、3 家配电公司和3家大用户参与的输配分开电力市场为例,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法说明了该竞价机制的基本特性。     

发电侧电力市场竞价交易模式及竞价策略风险的研究

研究了各种发电侧电力市场竞价交易模式,分析了它们的特点及对应的不同情况。在“厂网分开,竞价上网”的电力市场环境下,系统的运行条件和扰动场景更加复杂和不可预测,运行可靠性高于经济性的关系已不复存在,竞争各方都希望掌握其利益在各种风险下的变化情况,以便及早采取必要的预防和规避措施,尽量避免和减少经济损失。在综合考虑竞价策略和市场风险的基础上,对影响竞价策略的因素进行了分析,采用期望收益-风险效用函数来衡量交易参与者的市场策略。     

统一价格份额拍卖中的报价策略研究

为研究投标人的报价策略对拍卖价格的影响,文章在统一价格份额拍卖的分析框架内建立了投标报价策略与拍卖抑价的关系模型.通过求解出一类新的线性均衡报价策略,并与现有文献所研究的非线性均衡报价策略进行比较,文章证明了在投标人风险中性假设下,线性均衡策略要严格优于非线性均衡策略;同时,由于线性平衡策略的引入,文章还将投标人可以通过需求隐藏提高拍卖抑价的结论推广到了风险规避的情形,从而为进一步研究抑价均衡的消除建立了一个完备的理论基础.     

对水电建设管理中招投标有关问题的思考

对市场从无序到有序的转化过程中,水电工程项目招投标合同中存在的问题及建设管理中工程发包方与工程承包方之间的有关问题进行了探讨.     

计入峰谷分时上网电价的天然气发电竞争力分析

针对当前天然气发电燃料成本高、天然气供应不足而导致上网电价水平偏高,难以与煤电竞价的问题,提出考虑在发电侧实施峰谷分时上网电价机制,鼓励燃气电厂提高峰时段的上网电量,同时制定计入峰谷分时电价补贴标准来提高天然气发电的市场竞争力。算例结果表明,该措施明显提高了天然气发电的经济优势、气价的承受能力、与煤电平等竞价上网的竟争力。