淮北平原主要农作物涝渍灾害 损失评估研究

针对淮北平原除涝减灾综合治理与规划中缺乏主要农作物受涝损失调查与评估基础资料的实 际问题,于2010年9月初区域降雨成灾之际,对受涝区进行主要农作物受涝经济损失调查。依据实 地调研成果,通过综合统计分析推求了不同耕地类型不同暴雨强度下的受涝损失率,在此基础上实现 了对淮北平原受涝经济损失的合理评估。     

技能点组合分布的技能操作题库组卷研究①

根据技能组卷特点提出围绕技能点构建组卷约束模型,使用组合分布策略实现技能题库自动组卷。设计了技能点组卷矩阵约束模型,重点探讨组合分布组卷策略实现的三个关键环节：参数验证优化、技能点组合方案生成和技能试卷生成。通过实例验证表明：使用该方法实现技能题库组卷完全满足技能点组卷矩阵约束条件,具有组卷方法简便、组卷效率高、试卷质量优的特点,非常适合技能题库的组卷应用。     

面向银行的一种中间件的前后处理过程

银行风险数据处理中间件是一种主要采用数据集市技术来支持银行各种风险监管系统的高层应用中间件。本文首先探讨了提出银行风险数据处理中间件的客观原因和对其进行研究的意义,构建出了中间件系统的体系结构,详细描述了各主要功能模块,并着重设计了面向前端和后端的应用服务接口,最后给出了中间件系统的一个应用实例。中间件系统提炼和封装了共同的银行风险数据处理逻辑,为前端各种风险管理应用提供统一的服务接口和平台,大大缩小了银行风险管理系统的开发周期和开发成本。     

武汉职院实训成绩评估系统的设计与实现

本文阐述了武汉职院实训效果评估系统的实现和设计过程。着重描述了在项目反映理论框架下实训任务分析模型的建立、问题的转换和算法实现的具体过程。将项目反映模型与极大似然算法结合,在极大似然算法的支持下的改进型双参数模型可以更高效、更客观的对技能水平做出预测。     

基于智能体的多风险高关联项目的仿真

针对项目风险全生命周期管理过程中的多风险高关联的复杂性问题,为了综合评价风险系统,在风险持续管理过程和利益相关人风险知识沟通的基础上,提出了利用复杂自适应系统理论和智能体仿真技术对多风险相互关联条件下对项目生命全周期的风险影响进行了多智能体建模和仿真。不同风险控制力度下的仿真结果表明,对于具有多风险和风险间存在高度相互关联影响的大型项目而言,除了适度的风险的控制力度、标准流程和管理制度外,管理者更应从项目所涉及的系统或技术角度了解风险及其相互影响的内因。     

信息系统残留风险动态管理方法研究

本文在对残留风险需要动态管理分析的基础上,提出了一种残留风险动态管理方案。对其进行了流程和形式化描述,并对流程做了进一步的分析。实例分析,该方案能很好的实现残留风险的动态管理。     

The development of a formative scenario-based computer assisted assessment tool in psychology for teachers: The PePCAA project

Formative computer assisted assessment has become increasingly attractive in Higher Education where providing useful feedback to large numbers of students can be difficult. However, the nature of such assessments has often been limited to objective questions such as multiple-choice. This paper reports on the development and initial trialling of a more innovative, formative use of computer assisted assessment in a Higher Education context. The European funded PePCAA (Pedagogical Psychology Computer Assisted Assessment) project developed a series of scenario-based computer-delivered formative assessments of pedagogical psychology for teachers and trainee teachers, using a range of software features, including the addition of confidence measurement. The project had a two-fold aim: to provide a tool to improve understanding of pedagogical psychology and to explore the potential of more innovative techniques of computer assisted assessment to motivate students and to assess deeper learning. The combination of computer-delivered formative assessment with innovative question styles and confidence ratings is believed to be unique for pedagogical psychology. Scenarios were based on realistic classroom situations and focused on problem solving or on utilising best practice. The PePCAA Learning Assessment Circle (PLAC) provided a framework for indexing the kinds of processes required of users. In the UK, small scale trialling involved a total of 23 teacher trainees such that each assessment was attempted by about seven participants. Participants completed evaluation questionnaires after each assessment. Responses from learners indicated that the UK scenarios were generally very well received and had at least partly achieved the aim of stimulating deeper learning. Transfer of assessments between countries proved more difficult than expected. The next stage of development should be to conduct a larger pilot, thus allowing full investigation of the reliability and validity of the assessments. There is also scope for further development of the PePCAA approach and for its application in other subjects.     

Food security problems in sub-Saharan Africa: Operations Research as a tool of analysis

For many years, the author has been involved in teaching and research in the use of Operations Research as a tool of analysis to study food security problems in sub‐Saharan Africa, in particular, grass root problems of poor farmers. The paper presents an introduction to the way Operations Research methods have been applied in case studies and research projects, and discusses in retrospect the author's views on the strengths and limitations of the application of Operations Research. The paper has in particular been written for people who are not familiar with applications of Operations Research in agriculture, and are interested to learn about its potential usefulness in practice. The retrospective part is largely based on food security studies in e.g. Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Bénin, Togo and Eritrea and on participation in several interdisciplinary research programmes in Africa.     

权重自适应模糊层次分析方法及应用

借鉴了误差反向修正理论和增量式的思想,结合层次分析法固有的优势,提出了具有自适应能力的权重设定层次分析法(adaptive weight setting method,AWS)新方法,使盾构法隧道施工风险识别模型能够利用较少的施工数据,完成进行权重调整,满足了实际隧道施工中风险评估的需求.该方法在上海地铁某区间隧道工程中进行了试用,取得了良好的效果,表明了该方法的有效性和实用性.     

基于量子粒子群优化的在线航迹规划

现代战场中,环境信息是变化的,飞行器很难预先获得精确的全局环境信息,因此要求无人飞行器具有实时的航迹规划能力,采用量子粒子群优化算法,将约束条件和搜索算法相结合,有效解决了简单粒子群算法在高维空间中易陷入局部最优点的问题;同时,根据地形障碍、敌方防御雷达、防空火力等威胁以及禁飞区的分布情况,引入最小威胁面的概念,利用B-Spline插值逼近最小威胁面中的三维航迹在二维水平面内的投影,从而将三维曲线的规划问题简化为二维平面中控制点的寻优问题,简化了问题复杂度,提高了计算效率.仿真结果表明该方法可以满足在线航迹规划的要求.