大型复杂仿真系统相似性模糊综合评判

利用模糊数学对仿真模型进行相似性检验,提出了定量与定性相结合、主观与客观相结合的仿真模型与实现模型相似性模糊综合评判法,并给出了各种实用算法和适用场合,对处理“黑盒”和“灰盒”的仿真模型检验具有参考价值。     

用水信用与风险管理系统

系统采用Oracle数据库作为开发平台,VB.net为开发工具研制而成。系统借鉴银行和电力企业信用等级评价的规则,结合水司水费收缴的历史纪录及各客户的实际情况,运用自动采集程序,从原有的营销系统和财务系统自动录入数据,再通过优化的模糊概率、神经网络程序,对用户进行交纳水费信用等级评定,建立客户交纳水费风险预警机制。     

双曲线冷却塔风筒几何缺陷分析

由于施工放样原因,双曲线冷却塔风筒发生移位变形,筒壁出现初始几何缺陷,偏差超出规范允许值,造成冷却塔应力状态改变.利用冷却塔专用计算软件对冷却塔结构进行静力计算,根据计算的内力对强度进行验算,分析初始几何缺陷对冷却塔应力状态的影响,评价冷却塔结构安全性及是否需要进行加固处理,并对冷却塔后期维护提出建议.     

Robust quantification of the exposure to operational risk: Bringing economic sense to economic capital

Operational risk is commonly analyzed in terms of the distribution of aggregate yearly losses. Risk measures can then be computed as statistics of this distribution that focus on the region of extreme losses. Assuming independence among the operational risk events and between the likelihood that they occur and their magnitude, separate models are made for the frequency and for the severity of the losses. These are then combined to estimate the distribution of aggregate losses. While the detailed form of the frequency distribution does not significantly affect the risk analysis, the choice of model for the severity often has a significant impact on operational risk measures. For heavy-tailed distributions these measures are dominated by extreme losses, whose probability cannot be reliably extrapolated from the available data. With limited empirical evidence, it is difficult to distinguish among alternative models that produce very different values of the risk measures. Furthermore, the estimates obtained can be unstable and overly sensitive to the presence or absence of single extreme events. Setting a bound on the maximum amount that can be lost in a single event reduces the dependence on the distributional assumptions and improves the robustness and stability of the risk measures, while preserving their sensitivity to changes in the risk profile. This bound should be determined by expert assessment on the basis of economic arguments and validated by the regulator, so that it can be used as a control parameter in the risk analysis.     

基于数据挖掘的评教系统的设计与实现

为了提高评教数据在教学管理中的利用率,更加有效地为学校的决策服务。本文在研究了数据仓库、OLAP分析、数据挖掘技术的基础上,设计和实现了评教系统,实现了对评教数据的综合分析和深入挖掘。使用该系统后,教学管理部门改变了对评教数据的使用方式,提高了利用率,认识和理解更加深人和全面。     

对中央部门机关政府采购开展绩效评价的几点思考

中央部门机关政府采购绩效评价,应该以党和国家关于缋效管理和政府采购的一系列重要文件为指导,针对政府采购工作全过程,以绩效目标为牵引,以绩效指标和评价标准为重点,以完善的评价组织方法为推动力,贴近实际、注重实效,按照事前、事中、事后三个阶段,客观评定中央部门机关政府采购工作投入产出比,以及工作的效益和效率情况,为政府采购工作的开展提供借鉴.     

模糊综合评价法在长江下游贵池河段水质评价中的应用

对水质评价存在诸多方法,而模糊综合评价法具有评价结果合理、更接近客观实际等优点,因而得到越来越广泛的应用。通过模糊评价方法对长江下游贵池河段2005～2009年间水环境综合评价,并采用加权平均原则求取隶属等级,取得较好的效果。     

An ergonomic comparison of firearm safety mechanisms

As with most machines, the integral safety mechanism on firearms is vital to injury or fatality free operation. Presently, there is little or no standardisation in the design of these mechanisms. In this investigation, five existing designs found on both military and commercial rifles were evaluated ergonomically to determine the most effective characteristics for incorporation into future designs. The designs were evaluated experimentally on ease of use, visual effectiveness and operational impact. Three groups, representing a total of 30 subjects with widely varying experience, were selected. Results strongly suggest that safeties whose actuators are mounted within easy reach of the trigger finger are preferred and have the least operational impact. Subjects also preferred and were more adept at recognising safety status when the indicator was located on the receiver/barrel along the normal line of sight. Subjects more often correctly identified safety status when the indicator utilised colouring, was clearly marked and/or was in the normal line of sight. The results of this research prove that ergonomics can contribute to the understanding of firearm safety dynamics. The two essential components of safety mechanism design identified in this investigation, unambiguous status visibility and impact-free operation, are also likely to have implications in non-firearm safety mechanism design. This is particularly true for devices whose inadvertent operation can cause injury, as well as systems in which operational effectiveness can be jeopardised when attentiveness or operational control are lost in the process of actuating a poorly designed safety mechanism.     

模糊数学综合评判法在菜肴感官评定中的应用——以川菜代表性菜肴鱼香肉丝为例

感官评定是控制烹饪菜品质量的重要途径之一,文章以川菜代表性菜品——鱼香肉丝为评定对象,选取色、香、味、形、质等因素并设置合理的权重,对同一试验小组A、B、C、D、E等5道鱼香肉丝菜肴进行模糊数学综合评定。试验结果表明,用模糊数学综合评判法,能客观而准确地区分出不同烹饪菜肴的差异程度和等级,即5道鱼香肉丝感官评定等级从高到低为：C〉D〉E〉A〉B。     

国债市场的流动性套利及其实证检验

提出了一种在保持一定流动性风险的情况下构建国债套利组合的方法,应用线性规划技术,将国债的持有期风险因素引入到约束条件中,进而求解出实现最大期初套利的国债投资组合。通过对我国上交所25种债券的实证检验,发现套利收益与组合的持有期风险成正比,与流动性指标成反比,这证明了在考虑债券流动性风险的情况下,进行债券套利操作不一定会带来可观的收益。