A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments.     

炼铁生产环境负荷分析和预测研究

利用寿命周期评价的思想，计算了炼铁生产过程中的环境负荷，并分析了各因素对环境负荷的影响，运用神经网络对炼铁生产过程环境负荷进行了预测。     

Predicting Acute Renal Failure after Cardiac Surgery: Validation and Re‐definition of a Risk‐Stratification Algorithm

Background:  Acute renal failure (ARF) after cardiac surgery is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, irrespective of the need for dialysis. Previous studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF and develop risk stratification algorithms. This study aims to validate the algorithm in an independent cohort of patients that includes a significant proportion of female and black patients and compares two different definitions of renal outcome.
Methods:  A large single center cardiac surgery database was examined (n, 24,660; 1993–2000) which included 29.9% females and 3.7% black patients. Post‐operative ARF was defined as: a) ARF requiring dialysis, b) > 50% reduction in creatinine clearance relative to baseline or requiring dialysis. Clinical variables related to baseline renal function and cardiovascular disease were used in recursive partitioning analysis for both outcome definitions. Chi‐square goodness of fit analysis was performed to validate the algorithm.
Results:  The frequency of post‐operative ARF requiring dialysis ranged between 0.5 and 15.5% based on the risk categories with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78. Using the more inclusive definition of ARF, the frequency was significantly higher ranging from 2.6 to 25%(P < 0.001) with an area under ROC curve of 0.65.
Conclusions:  The renal risk stratification algorithm is valid in predicting post‐operative ARF in an independent cohort of patients, well represented by differences in gender and race. Since the need for dialysis remains subjective, a more objective and inclusive definition of ARF may help in identifying a larger number of patients 'at‐risk'.     

Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

工程项目投标报价中的风险分析

针对目前国内的招投标制度和方法,投标报价风险成为企业能否中标的最大风险,报价在招标中占的分数权重在40%~60%之间,对能否中标起到决定性的作用。从总承包商自身能力及有意识行为、总承包模式3个方面对工程项目中的投标报价风险进行了分析。     

Youth gambling behaviors: An examination of the role of resilience.

The study of resilient children has overturned many deficit-focused models concerning the ontogenesis of children raised in adversity. This study explored the relationship between risk and protective factors, resilience, and youth gambling behavior. More specifically, this study examined the relative contribution of various risk and protective domains in relation to problem gambling behavior and examined whether youth identified as resilient (high risk exposure- high internalized protection) were as likely as those identified as vulnerable (high risk exposure-low internalized protection) to engage in excessive gambling behavior. The sample consisted of 1,273 students ages 12 to 19. The findings demonstrated that risk and protective factors each provide a unique contribution to the prediction model of gambling problems. Resilient and vulnerable youth differed significantly in their self-reported gambling severity. As well, resilient youth were not statistically distinguishable from low-risk exposure groups in terms of their gambling severity. Findings are interpreted with respect to resilience and prevention research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Douglas W. Bray (1918-2006).

Presents an obituary for Douglas W. Bray, the inventor of the modern-day assessment center, a method used by thousands of organizations around the world to identify the best people for critical roles and to guide individuals in optimizing their talents. Bray's death in Englewood, New Jersey, on May 9, 2006, ended the extraordinary career of a pioneer in industrial/organizational (I/O) psychology who optimized the interplay of research and application. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

DSS research and practice in perspective

The aim of this paper is to assess the state-of-the-art in the Decision Support Systems (DSS) field from both a research and a practice perspective. Three main dimensions of DSS research and practice are addressed: 1) supporting human decision-making processes, 2) integrating DSS into the organizational context, and 3) identifying new application domains. The related analysis and discussion provides a better understanding of past developments in the DSS field and insights into future evolution patterns.     

钢中非金属夹杂物显微评级方法的定量化探讨

应用ＩＢＡＳ系列图像分析系统，对建立一套与国家标准ＧＢ１０５６１─８９兼容的钢中非金属夹杂物显微评级方法的自动化和定量化标准作了可行性分析，结果表明建立这套标准是切实可行的。     

球罐活性缺陷的模糊评定方法

根据国内外有关标准和文献,利用模糊数学中的模糊描述和隶属度等概念,首次采用多级模糊综合评定理论,分层次地把活性缺陷的主要监测信息(即声发射源信息)和专家们的经验考虑在内,建立在用球形贮罐声发射源严重度多级模糊综合评定模型和方法,并编制计算机数据分析和处理程序,使评定结果趋于更合理和可靠.并给出在用球形贮罐声发射源严重度多级模糊综合评定算例,结果表明,该评定方法可以达到定量化的程度,与局部无损复验结果有良好的一致性.