大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

Effect of sampling density on the measurement of stream condition indicators in two lowland Australian streams

There is widespread application of indicators to the assessment of environmental condition of streams. These indicators are intended for use by managers in making various comparative and absolute assessments and often have a role in resource allocation and performance assessment. Therefore, the problem of formally defining confidence in the results is important but difficult because the sampling strategies used are commonly based on a compromise between the requirements of statistical rigour and the pragmatic issues of access and resources. It is rare to see this compromise explicitly considered and consequently there is seldom quantification of the uncertainty that could affect the confidence a manager has in an indicator. In this paper, we present a method for quantitatively assessing the tradeoffs between sampling density and uncertainty in meeting various monitoring objectives. Assessments using judgement‐based representative reaches are shown to be unreliable; instead a sampling approach is recommended based on the random selection of measuring sites. A detailed dataset was collected along two streams in Victoria, Australia, and the effect of sampling density was assessed by subsampling from this dataset with precision related to the number of sites assessed per reach length and the intensity of the sampling at each site. The sampling scheme to achieve a given precision is shown to depend on the monitoring objective. In particular, three objectives were considered: (1) making a baseline assessment of current condition; (2) change detection; and (3) detection of a critical threshold in condition. Change detection is shown to be more demanding than assessing baseline condition with additional sampling effort required to achieve the same precision. Sampling to detect a critical threshold depends on nominating acceptable values of Type I and II error and the size of the effect to be detected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments.     

炼铁生产环境负荷分析和预测研究

利用寿命周期评价的思想，计算了炼铁生产过程中的环境负荷，并分析了各因素对环境负荷的影响，运用神经网络对炼铁生产过程环境负荷进行了预测。     

Douglas W. Bray (1918-2006).

Presents an obituary for Douglas W. Bray, the inventor of the modern-day assessment center, a method used by thousands of organizations around the world to identify the best people for critical roles and to guide individuals in optimizing their talents. Bray's death in Englewood, New Jersey, on May 9, 2006, ended the extraordinary career of a pioneer in industrial/organizational (I/O) psychology who optimized the interplay of research and application. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

DSS research and practice in perspective

The aim of this paper is to assess the state-of-the-art in the Decision Support Systems (DSS) field from both a research and a practice perspective. Three main dimensions of DSS research and practice are addressed: 1) supporting human decision-making processes, 2) integrating DSS into the organizational context, and 3) identifying new application domains. The related analysis and discussion provides a better understanding of past developments in the DSS field and insights into future evolution patterns.     

钢中非金属夹杂物显微评级方法的定量化探讨

应用ＩＢＡＳ系列图像分析系统，对建立一套与国家标准ＧＢ１０５６１─８９兼容的钢中非金属夹杂物显微评级方法的自动化和定量化标准作了可行性分析，结果表明建立这套标准是切实可行的。     

球罐活性缺陷的模糊评定方法

根据国内外有关标准和文献,利用模糊数学中的模糊描述和隶属度等概念,首次采用多级模糊综合评定理论,分层次地把活性缺陷的主要监测信息(即声发射源信息)和专家们的经验考虑在内,建立在用球形贮罐声发射源严重度多级模糊综合评定模型和方法,并编制计算机数据分析和处理程序,使评定结果趋于更合理和可靠.并给出在用球形贮罐声发射源严重度多级模糊综合评定算例,结果表明,该评定方法可以达到定量化的程度,与局部无损复验结果有良好的一致性.     

Information systems effectiveness: research designs for causal inference

Abstract. This paper examines the capacity of the research designs of 37 empirical studies of information systems (IS) effectiveness to provide a basis for the development of theories about behaviour related to IS effectiveness. The power of each study to support causal inference was evaluated in terms of (a) its handling of the time dimension, (b) its ability to weigh differences and (c) its resistance to internal validity threats that pose alternative explanations for its reported findings. Of the reviewed studies, 29.7% could account for the time dimension, 32.4% employed a comparison group and 16.2% were not susceptible to any internal validity threats. Only 13.5% of the studies combined an accounting for the time dimension with the use of a comparison group. Of these, however, only 5.4% were also invulnerable to internal validity threats. The research designs of nearly 95% of these published studies were deficient in supporting causal inference. In those studies, suggestions that one variable was causally related to another variable could not be substantiated. Encouragement for the future capacity of IS effectiveness research to support causal inference was found in a trend towards the use of quasiexperimental designs. Recommendations are made regarding ways to increase the inferential capacity of research designs employed in the study of IS effectiveness.     

大坝施工混凝土质量的评价体系

本文介绍了大坝施工混凝土质量的评价系统软件的设计思路和设计成果。它利用现代计算机技术和应用模糊数学理论评价混凝土重力坝和拱坝单块和整体的质量。在采用模糊综合评价工程质量中，对不同工艺环节，对坝体不同部位，鉴于其质量要求的差异应赋予不同的权重，在权重的取值上采用了专家调查排序，定量转化的方法是比较适宜的。在程序设计中，评价数学模型采用了BASIC程序，访膜块通过*TXT文件实现了与整个大坝混凝土质量微机管理系统的接口及数据传递。操作运行方便灵活。