Data mining of resilience indicators

In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced several financial setbacks, including speculative attacks in 1998 and the SARS outbreak in 2003. Financial stresses of this nature are unanticipated, and not all of the dangers can be predicted by the examination of market information and macroeconomic indicators. The Early Warning System (EWS) that has been adopted by the International Monetary Fund may not be able to predict future financial crises for all possible scenarios, because shocks come in many different forms. To supplement the EWS, this paper proposes a data mining framework to measure the resilience of an economy. The resilience framework does not predict a crisis, but rather assesses the current state of health of an economy and its ability to withstand a financial shock should one occur. The framework is based on a feedback system consisting of two stages. The first stage assigns a resilience score to each economy based on a fuzzy logic scoring scheme that is built on the ambiguous reasoning of experts. The second stage uses the classification tree approach to estimate thresholds for each economic indicator, and examines the quality of the fuzzy score. The result from the second stage is then passed back to the first stage as feedback. The final result is obtained when the feedback system reaches its equilibrium state. The proposed resilience framework is applied to the external-sector and the public-sector economies of several countries to illustrate its applicability.     

基于模糊信息处理的中板轧机微机在线监测系统

中板轧机是中板厂最重要的生产设备，对其工况进行在线监测意义重大，各种传感器将轧机的工况信息传送给微机系统，微机系统将这些信息进行模糊处理，发出相关信息，指导系统安全，高效运行。     

铜密闭鼓风炉生产效益的回归分析

通过铜密闭鼓风炉生产过程中关键指标的回归分析,寻找降低消耗、增加产出、提高经济效益的有效途径     

辽河催化裂化澄清油中间馏分热反应研究

采用先加入絮凝剂脱灰，再经减压蒸馏切割420～500℃馏分的方法，将辽河催化裂化澄清油预处理，考察了澄清油、加入絮凝剂脱灰后的澄清油以及脱灰后再减压蒸馏所得的中间馏分这3种原料在热转化过程中中间相的转化历程，并采用偏光显微镜观察热转化产物。结果表明，澄清油预处理效果明显，所得中间馏分具有较低的H／C原子比（nH／nC）和适宜的组成分布，是生产针状焦的理想原料。热转化产物的光学组织结构属于各向异性发达的广域-流线型结构。     

基于模糊理论的江垭水库移民安置区模式优选

水库移民安置区的优化选择关系到移民社区未来的社会稳定和可持续发展。为此,对影响移民安置区的指标体系进行了研究,利用模糊理论建立了优选模型,并通过江垭水库移民安置区的实际情况对模型进行了验证。结果表明,研究采用的指标体系和方法可满足移民安置区优选的需要。     

用模糊综合评判法评估钢制储罐的寿命

针对影响钢制储罐寿命的因素具有复杂性、非确定性以及时变性的特点,提出了用动态二级模糊综合评判的方法对其寿命进行评估,建立了评估的数学模型和评估流程。在对某石油库油罐的寿命分析中,考虑到保留所有评判因素的影响,采用了乘、加型模糊算子,并用层次分析法来确定评价指标权重。计算结果表明,该方法能够解决储罐寿命评估中的一些复杂因素的处理问题,具有一定的实际工程意义。     

A Bluetooth Routing Protocol Using Evolving Fuzzy Neural Networks

In this paper, a routing protocol which utilizes the characteristics of Bluetooth technology is proposed for Bluetooth-based mobile ad hoc networks. The routing tables are maintained in the master devices and the routing zone radius for each table is adjusted dynamically by using evolving fuzzy neural networks. Observing there exists some useless routing packets which are helpless to build the routing path and increase the network loads in the existing ad hoc routing protocols, we selectively use multiple unicasts or one broadcast when the destination device is out of the routing zone radius coverage of the routing table. The simulation results show that the dynamic adjustment of the routing table size in each master device results in much less reply time of routing request, fewer request packets and useless packets compared with two representative protocols, Zone Routing Protocol and Dynamic Source Routing.     

运用模糊数学原理估算水利水电工程的成本

为了适应水利水电工程成本快速估价的需要,提出了一种建立在模糊数学基本原理基础上的估价模型,克服了工程量清单计价方法计算繁琐的缺点。通过实例说明了该方法的科学性、合理性及实用性。     

An Interval Fuzzy Multiobjective Watershed Management Model for the Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

Integrated watershed management is required to ensure the reasonable use of resources and reconcile interactions among natural and human systems. In the present study, an interval fuzzy multiobjective programming (IFMOP) method was used to solve an integrated watershed management problem. Based on system analysis, an IFMOP model suitable for a lake watershed system {IFMOPLWS} was developed and applied to the Lake Qionghai watershed in China. Scenario analysis and an interactive approach were used in the solution process. In this manner, various system components were incorporated into one framework for holistic consideration and optimization. Integrality and uncertainty, as well as the multiobjective and dynamic characteristics of the watershed system, were well addressed. Using two scenarios, two planning schemes were generated. Agriculture, tourism, macroeconomics, cropland use, water supply, forest coverage, soil erosion, and water pollution were fully interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative for local agencies. This study showed that the IFMOPLWS is a powerful tool for integrated watershed management planning and can provide a solid base for sustainable watershed management.     

A New Method for Target Recognition

1　Introduction　SinceZadeh[1] establishedfuzzysettheoryin 196 5 ,fuzzysetmakesgreatachievementintheoryandapplica tion[2～ 5] .Becausethereexistintrinsicfuzzinessinpat ternrecognition ,usingfuzzysettopatternrecognitionacquiregreatsuccess.Toexplainthedifferentandrela tionbetweenfuzzysetandprobabilitytheory ,Zadeh[6 ]introducedpossibilitytheoryin 1978.Possibilitytheoryhadbeenusedinfuzzyreason ,fuzzycontrolandexpertsystem[7～ 9] .Applingpossibilitytheoryto patternrecognitionisattemptedbyHalland…