安全仪表系统的可用性分析及其定量评估

安全仪表系统的误动作给生产带来较大经济损失,如何保证安全仪表系统既可靠又可用已提上议事日程。在分析安全仪表系统安全失效概率影响因素的基础上,采用可靠性框图法针对安全仪表系统常用表决结构的安全失效概率进行了定量研究,并给出了应用示例。研究结果表明,共因失效会增加安全仪表系统发生安全失效的概率;安全仪表系统降级工作不影响其可用性;在设备逐一测试和维修的情况下,可忽略由于测试和维修危险失效导致的安全仪表系统不可用;独立的未检测到的安全失效对安全仪表系统发生安全失效概率的贡献最大。     

Presumed joint probability density function model for turbulent combustion

A presumed joint probability density function (pdf) model of turbulent combustion is proposed in this paper. The turbulent fluctuations of reactant concentrations and temperature are described using a presumed joint pdf of three-dimensional Gaussian distribution based on first and second-order moments of reactant concentration and temperature. Mean reaction rates in both premixed and diffusion combustion are obtained by mean of integration under the presumed joint pdf. This model is applied to predict turbulent premixed combustion of sudden-expansion flow and turbulent jet diffusion methane/air flame. For turbulent premixed combustion, the predicted results of temperature distribution and maximum temperature using the proposed model agree better with the experiment than that using the conventional eddy-breakup (EBU)-Arrhenius model. For the turbulent jet diffusion methane/air flame, the predicted results of velocity, temperature and species concentrations using the proposed model, the Arrhenius, EBU-Arrhenius, and laminar flamelet models are compared with experiment data. Results obtained with the presumed pdf model and that obtained by the laminar flamelet model both agree well with experiments, while results using the other models have a significant difference. The presumed joint pdf model is used to predict the NO formation process, which also agrees well with the experiment data. A unified turbulent combustion model, in which both effects of turbulent diffusion and chemical dynamics are considered, is established for both premixed and diffusion combustion, especially for the process of NO formation.     

Study of a downward gas jet in a two–dimensional fluidized bed

The study of a downward gas jet was performed in a two–dimensional (2–D) fluidized bed of sand particles under conditions of minimum fluidization and at atmospheric pressure and room temperature. The jet shifted through a cyclic sequence of left–central–right–central–left positions. The probability of the left and right jets was 40% each, while the less stable central jet occurred only 20% of the time. Discrete probability distributions of jet presence for each of the three jet configurations and an overall distribution are presented. They show that jets are dominant along the external walls of the nozzle. The depth of the downward jet increased with air flowrate in agreement with the correlation from Massimilla and Russo (1973).     

Duration of slip-resistant shoe usage and the rate of slipping in limited-service restaurants: results from a prospective and crossover study

Several studies have indicated that slip-resistant shoes may have a positive effect on reducing the risk of slips and falls, a leading cause of injury at work. Few studies, however, have examined how duration of shoe usage affects their slip-resistance properties. This study examined the association between the duration of slip-resistant shoes usage and the self-reported rate of slipping in limited-service restaurant workers. A total of 475 workers from 36 limited-service restaurants in the USA were recruited to participate in a 12-week prospective study of workplace slipping. Of the 475 participants, 83 reported changing to a new pair of shoes at least once during the 12-week follow-up. The results show that slip-resistant shoes worn for less than six months were moderately more effective than those worn for more than six months. Changing to a new pair of shoes among those wearing slip-resistant shoes at baseline was associated with a 55% reduction in the rate of slipping (RR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.23–0.89). Further research is needed to develop criteria for the replacement of slip-resistant shoes.

Practitioner Summary: The duration of usage impacts the slip-resistance properties of slip-resistant shoes. Slip-resistant shoes worn for less than six months were moderately more effective in reducing slips than slip-resistant shoes worn for more than six months. Shoe use policies should not only encourage or require their use but also include guidance on replacing slip-resistant shoes at regular intervals.     

北京市雨水收集利用蓄水池容积计算与分析

基于北京市1984—2013年的日降雨资料,以北京林业大学林业楼及其周边绿地为研究区,设置3种用水情景(冲厕、绿地灌溉及冲厕+绿地灌溉),采用连续模拟法,分别绘制3种用水情景下雨水收集利用工程的雨水截留率、自来水替代率、供水保证率以及效益费用比变化曲线,并通过综合分析这些曲线的变化特征确定雨水蓄水池最佳设计容积(60~82 m3)。同时采用设计暴雨法计算1~5年不同重现期的蓄水池设计容积(77~248 m3)。结果表明,连续模拟法计算过程相对复杂,但可用于综合衡量雨水收集利用工程的雨洪管理效益,以及缓解水资源短缺效益、供水可靠性及经济可行性分析。     

探讨概率应用的几个典型问题

概率应用遍及自然科学和社会生活之中,科学的概率不仅应当服务于科学,更重要的是能够服务于概率应用。这里通过解决典型问题,剖析概率研究方法的特殊性,探讨概率应用的一般方法。     

数据挖掘预测模型在脑损伤患者认知功能康复中的应用

为了更好地预测后天性脑损伤ABI(Acquired Brain Injury)患者认知功能康复的影响因素,提出基于决策树(DT)、多层感知器(MLP)和广义回归神经网络(GRNN)的三种预测模型。借助于10折交叉验证测试算法,通过专一性、灵敏度和精度分析以及混淆矩阵分析对模型的性能进行测试,从而获得新的知识以评估和改善认知功能康复过程中的有效性。实验结果表明,基于DT的模型的模拟结果明显比其他模型更为优越,预测平均精度可高达90.38%。     

一种基于混合高斯模型的多目标进化算法

目前,大多数多目标进化算法采用为单目标优化所设计的重组算子.通过证明或实验分析了几个典型的单目标优化重组算子并不适合某些多目标优化问题.提出了基于分解技术和混合高斯模型的多目标优化算法（multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition and mixture Gaussian models,简称MOEA/D-MG）.该算法首先采用一个改进的混合高斯模型对群体建模并采样产生新个体,然后利用一个贪婪策略来更新群体.针对具有复杂Pareto前沿的多目标优化问题的测试结果表明,对给定的大多数测试题,该算法具有良好的效果.     

802.11 DCF协议引入信道预约机制的必要性分析

论文对802.11 DCF协议引入信道预约机制的必要性问题进行了探讨.通过分析信道预约机制与隐藏/暴露终端问题之间的关系,提出一种比较隐藏终端和暴露终端出现概率大小的等效方法,并给出了相应的数值估算结果.理论分析结果验证了802.11 DCF协议引入信道预约机制的有效性.     

无线传感器网络中移动目标跟踪的预测模型

动态目标的实时监测是无线传感器网络覆盖的必备技术和发展趋势,针对由于目标运动带来的网络动态拓扑变化和耗能高等问题,提出了一个预测模型。该模型通过综合分析目标在当前时刻前的信息如移动速度、移动方向的基础上,基于二维高斯分布,预测目标未来可能出现的区域,从而激活相应的传感器,减轻无线传感器网络的工作压力。并且设计相应的通讯协议,以保证基站与传感器节点之间数据稳定、实时的传输。基于仿真实验表明了该方法的有效性和可行性。