Simulation of runoff and phosphorus transport in a Carpathian catchment,Slovakia

A comprehensive, GIS‐based modelling approach is developed to estimate runoff and phosphorus transport within a watershed at a daily time step. The approach relies on the use of GIS data for deriving major critical model parameters that exhibit distinct spatial variability over the catchment. Surface runoff is calculated by a modified rational method, which depends upon rainfall intensity, soil moisture status, slope, land‐use and soil characteristics. Phosphorus loading is estimated as a function of the runoff volume and the event mean concentration for different land use categories. A diffusive approximation method is used to trace runoff and phosphorus transport to the basin outlet. The modelling approach is tested in the Margecany catchment, Hornad River basin, Slovakia, to simulate runoff, phosphorus loading, and its transport on a daily time scale using data observed between 1995 and 2000. Satisfactory results of the hydrographs and phosphorus concentration at the basin outlet are obtained, though more efforts regarding the phosphorus cycling and its biochemical reactions need to be clarified by further research. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

可靠性预计方法及思考

本文介绍了可靠性预计的目的,并对当前较为常见的可靠性预计模型或方法做了比较和说明,也对造成可靠性预计局限性的原因做了分析,最后对在可靠性工程工作中对待可靠性预计的态度做了探讨.     

Effects of circumferential pick spacing on boom type roadheader cutting head performance

Effects of equal and unequal circumferential pick spacing on the performance of boom type roadheaders having cylindrical cutting heads are investigated. For this purpose, two experimental cutting heads with equal and unequal circumferential spacing are designed and manufactured. The cutting head with unequal circumferential spacing is specifically designed to prevent tool-holder overlap at the nose section. Manufacturing difficulties associated with equal circumferential pick spacing due to tool-holder overlap are discussed with solid modeling and practical applications. The heads are tested at Park Cayirhan Coal Mine in Turkey and their cutting performances are analysed. Although better cutting performance for equal circumferential spacing are predicted by force–balance analysis, in situ measurements of instantaneous (net) traversing speed and cutting rate, pick consumption rate and machine vibration show that no significant difference exists between the performances of the two cutting heads.     

曲流河沉积亚相的地震识别方法

本文提出利用三维地震资料相干数据分析研究曲流河沉积相的方法，其优点是在地质分析的基础上，对沉积体系有较为明显的识别特征，且在钻井较少的地区尤为实用。该方法在济阳拗陷东北部上第三系应用中取得了较为明显的效果。     

SARS流行预测分析

表面上突如其来的SARS本质上却有极规律的内在发展演化机制，遵从初始缓慢增长、加速、减速和稳定终止四个阶段总体道路，自然和社会生活领域众多事件演化都符合这一规律，因而可以运用广义的Logistic生长模型进行描述。基于先期流行的广东SARS感染病例数据，以及尚未结束的北京、全国2003年SARS流行统计数据，借助于最优化分析技术，运用广义的Logistic生长模型对该事件演化特征参量进行了辨识；在此基础上，又借助于广义生长模型的特例——Gompertz函数进行了演化过程的预测，并与其他生长模型结果进行了比较。研究表明，生长模型模拟结果均与实际数据有很好的一致性，可以用来预测事件的发生演化过程，此次SARS事件堪称生长模型的经典实例。     

Analytical prediction of composite beams response in fire situations

In this paper an extension of the method of the Fourier series expansion to the fire analysis of composite beams is presented. In particular the extension concerns the introduction of the temperature dependent interaction of all the components: steel beams, concrete slab and steel connectors. These last are considered of finite stiffness, and a proper account is given to the combined effect of thermal degradation of the properties, and stress amplification caused by the differential thermal expansion across the interface.The proposed method compares very well with some experimental fire tests of simply supported and framed composite beams. Due to its relative simplicity and speed, it can be used for design purposes in evaluating the critical temperature in terms of critical deflection. Finally we recall that the method is capable of dealing with every type of fastening distribution, such as discontinuous or variable length.     

LOW-CYCLE FATIGUE UNDER NON-PROPORTIONAL LOADING

A series of strain-controlled, low-cycle fatigue experiments have been conducted on 42CrMo steel under various loading paths including circular, square, cruciform, and rectangular paths. Present experiments have shown that there is additional hardening under non-proportional cyclic loading. Non-proportional cyclic additional hardening also results in a shorter life for multiaxial low cycle fatigue. A non-proportionality measure of strain path based on both a physical basis and macromechanical phenomena is proposed. The loading path effect on additional hardening is also described well. Low-cycle fatigue damage accumulation and the evolution process under non-proportional loading is analysed via the Continuum Damage Mechanics Model of Chaboche. A non-proportinality measure is introduced in the damage evolution equation and a modified Coffin-Manson type formula is derived. A novel fatigue life prediction approach based on the critical-plane concept of Brown and Miller is proposed.     

改进的GMDH方法及其在参数预报中的应用

本文在综合了ＧＭＤＨ方法中几种有效的改进算法的基础上，进一步研究了变量预选及部分表达式的构成问题，采用最优化方法确定变量最佳组成式并进行变量筛选，由此得到精度更高、稳定性较好的模型，将其应用于聚丙烯熔指数的预报，仿真结果令人满意。     

A prediction method for thermal conductivity of alternative refrigerants in the liquid phase

A prediction method for the thermal conductivity of halocarbon refrigerants in the saturated liquid state in the reduced temperature range 0.3 to well above 0.9 is presented in this paper. The aim of the method is to present a very simple calculation of the transport property useful for engineering purposes. The method determines thermal conductivity as a sole function of the reduced temperature and requires the knowledge of a parameter dependent upon easily available physical constants characteristic of each compound. The method is validated against experimental data available in the literature, giving average absolute deviations which are usually less than 5%, with maximum absolute deviations generally less than 10%. An extension of the method to estimate thermal conductivity of binary mixtures is also presented, along with a comparison with the few experimental data available in the literature.Paper presented at the Twelfth Symposium on Thermophysical Properties, June 19–24, 1994, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.     

Predictive modelling of the 3-D structure of interleukin-13

Several atomic structures are now available for the family ofhelical cytokines, which includes growth hormone as well asmany of the interleukins. Using structural information fromfive members of this family, two alternative models of interleukin(IL)-13 are proposed. IL-13 has biological properties similarto those of IL-4 and, like the other interleukins, is a potentiallyimportant pharmaceutical target. The model of IL-13 is discussedand compared with the known interleukin structures.