Introduction to the Asian Energy Security project: Project organization and methodologies

The spectacular recent economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region in general, and in many of the economies of Northeast Asia in particular, has spurred a vast expansion in the need for energy services, and an expansion in the demand for the fuels that help to supply these services. Future projections suggest that the growth of fossil fuel use in Northeast Asia, especially in China, will have major consequences for financial and fuel markets and pollution both regionally and globally. Before the project described in this paper was initiated, there was no ongoing forum for energy experts from all of the countries of the region to meet, informally and in an unofficial capacity, to discuss openly and in a targeted fashion the energy situations in their countries, and to work together to evaluate the energy efficiency costs and benefits of different ways of meeting regional demand. The Asian Energy Security (AES) project provides such a forum, and as such constitutes a unique resource in the engagement of the countries of Northeast Asia on the topic of energy security.     

Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia

“Energy Security” has typically, to those involved in making energy policy, meant mostly securing access to oil and other fossil fuels. With increasingly global, diverse energy markets, however, and increasingly transnational problems resulting from energy transformation and use, old energy security rationales are less salient, and other issues, including climate change and other environmental, economic, and international considerations are becoming increasingly important. As a consequence, a more comprehensive operating definition of “Energy Security” is needed, along with a workable framework for analysis of which future energy paths or scenarios are likely to yield greater Energy Security in a broader, more comprehensive sense. Work done as a part of the Nautilus Institute's “Pacific Asia Regional Energy Security” (PARES) project developed a broader definition of Energy Security, and described an analytical framework designed to help to compare the energy security characteristics – both positive and negative – of different quantitative energy paths as developed using software tools such as the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) system.     

Combustion characteristics of biomass in SouthEast Asia

Gas emission during combustion of mixed tropical wood, bamboo, oil palm trunk, acacia, and rubber wood have been investigated by using TG–MS in presence of oxygen as well as FTIR. The weight decreasing profiles and the gas formation rates of oil palm trunk was significantly different among the samples although their elemental composition was almost the same from biomass samples. It was found that H₂O is the main product formed for all samples. The evolving rates of the gaseous products during the combustion and infrared spectrums such as CO, H₂O, CO₂, CH₄ and COOH⁺ were found. The DTG curves spectrums for biomass present four overlapping peaks.     

东南亚八国天然气市场供需与管制现状

八个东南亚天然气资源国按照储量差异可分为三类,第一类是储量相对丰富的国家,包括印尼、马来西ⅢE和东帝汶,2012年底印尼和马来西亚的天然气剩余可采储量分别为2．93×10^12m3和1．32×10^12m3。2012年印尼天然气产量为7lO．7×10。In’,国内消费量358．1×10^8m3;同年马来西亚生产天然气652．4×10^8m3,国内消费量333．3×10^8m3。第二类是天然气储量处于中等水平的泰国、越南、文莱和缅甸,截至2012年底,四国天然气剩余可采储量分别为0．28×10^12m3、0．62×10^12m3、0．29×10^12m3和0．22×10^12m3：2012年四国天然气产量分别为413．9×10^8m3、94．0×10^8m3、125．7×10^8m3和127．3×10^m3。第三类是储量相对较小的菲律宾,2007～2011年其天然气产量与消费量始终维持在1000×10^8ft3上下。文莱、缅甸、东帝汶的天然气主要用于出口,越南、泰国、菲律宾以供应本国市场为主,马来西亚、印尼内需与外需能基本兼顾。缅甸和东帝汶的出口量将随着新项目的落实逐渐扩大：文莱和印尼的出口量将围绕某一水平波动：马来西亚价格管制政策的调整,将决定其出口量的变化以及能否逐步减少天然气的进口量;越南在LNG供应链建设完成后进口量将出现较快增长;菲律宾如果不改革管制政策,天然气的消费增长将停滞。     

Increasing access to water services: a cost-recoverable pricing model

Pricing policies can serve as a low-cost and effective tool for increasing access to water and sanitation services among poor households while allowing the provider to recover costs. An empirical model is applied to contingent-valuation survey data for water services in Cebu, Philippines. Pricing policies that utilizes a low one-time connection fee and differentiates tariffs based on wealth results in a 3 to 9-fold increase in water services access by poor households over the base pricing policy. The results provide evidence that price-discrimination techniques can be important tools toward achieving greater coverage and financial solvency of important services.     

Optimising daylighting in high-rise commercial developments in SE Asia and the use of computer programmes as a design tool

The consensus of the '92 Rio summit was that all development should aim for non-depletion of the earth's resources.The major growth region for the next decade is SE Asia and particularly the cities of South China for which Hong Kong is a role model with its dense urban construction. Recent Hong Kong energy legislation addressed the thermal transmission of the envelope without integrating building services energy consumption while planning legislation determines plot ratio but does not restrict overall building height in most areas of Hong Kong. A recently constructed high-rise commercial building has been analysed and proposed modifications computer modelled to evaluate options to extend daylight deeper into the space using extra interior height, alternative glazing and an external lightshelf. The commercial programme Lightscape, recently developed, is being assessed as a design tool to visually simulate the interior lighting, the illumination levels and daylight factors verified against scale physical models.     

中亚瓦赫什河上游源区气候水文要素演变特征

为研究全球变化背景下中亚河流源区气候水文变化,基于中亚跨境河流瓦赫什河上游源区1955—2017年气象水文数据,分析了流域内气候水文要素演变特征及流量变化主要控制因子。结果表明:瓦赫什河上游源区近1955—2017年气候呈现暖湿化趋势;瓦赫什河上游源区气温在1994年发生突变现象,降水在2007年与2012年发生突变现象,流量则在2003年发生突变现象;小波分析显示瓦赫什河上游流域气温、降水、流量的第一主周期分别为28 a、20 a、28 a,周期性振荡明显;瓦赫什河上游源区在气候水文要素关联上,气温与流量变化相较于降水紧密,但受全球升温停滞影响,温度对于流量作用并没有持续增强。     

Effects of hydrological changes on cooperation in transnational catchments: the case of the Syr Darya

Water allocation along the Syr Darya River may be affected by climate change. Here we statistically model cooperation strategies, country profits, and sensitivity of cooperation, showing that the hydrological regime affects transboundary cooperation. Climate change in the twenty-first century may reduce glacial cover, and reducing stream flows, decreasing chances of cooperation and potentially raising conflicts. Comparison with other transboundary catchments in Central Asia indicates moderate-to-high risk of conflicts for the Syr Darya. A template is provided for assessment of the stability of cooperation in the Syr Darya basin, and in catchments similarly dependent on water availability.     

蒙古-鄂霍茨克洋东段关闭对松辽盆地形成与演化的影响

松辽盆地是位于中国东北的大型白垩系陆相含油气盆地,前人普遍认为其形成和演化主要受西太平洋板块向西俯冲作用的影响和控制。那么,环西太平洋构造带仅在中国东北形成大型坳陷盆地的动力机制是什么,松辽盆地在坳陷阶段之前发育火石岭组和营城组2套断陷期火山岩的诱因是什么,中国东北地区大规模发育中生代岩浆岩的主控因素是什么。显然,这些现象很难单纯用古太平洋板块活动控制来解释。本文在充分吸收已有科研成果的基础上,从区域动力学背景、火山岩时空分布特征以及沉积盆地构造演化的角度,分析了蒙古-鄂霍茨克洋东段的闭合对松辽盆地形成与演化的影响,指出蒙古-鄂霍茨克洋关闭是中生代东北亚最重要的一次大地构造事件,板块的俯冲、碰撞、挤压、拉张以及岩浆活动等作用对该区盆-山格局的形成和演化都具有重要的影响;并提出了松辽盆地可能存在的蒙古-鄂霍茨克洋和西太平洋板块双向俯冲成因模式,厘定了两者对中国东北地区多期次挤压和拉张作用的转换时间,从全新的角度认识了松辽盆地的形成和演化过程,合理地诠释了中国东北部晚侏罗世-早白垩世有别于西太平洋南部地区的岩浆岩发育特征。     

中亚南部湖盆浅水辫状河三角洲识别标志与沉积模式研究

以岩心相、测井相、地震相为标志,通过对中亚南部湖盆Aryskum组古地理背景、砂体展布、水动力条件、沉积构造及地球物理响应等进行综合研究,认为其属于浅水粗粒辫状河三角洲沉积环境,主要发育浅水辫状河三角洲前缘亚相的水下分支河道和支流间湾沉积微相,其中,水下分支河道比较发育,不同方向的河道相互叠置,平面上连片分布,可形成有...