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91.
Katina R. Skinner J. Bert Keats William J. Zimmer 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2001,17(4):249-256
Using mean square error as the criterion, we compare two least squares estimates of the Weibull parameters based on non‐parametric estimates of the unreliability with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). The two non‐parametric estimators are that of Herd–Johnson and one recently proposed by Zimmer. Data was generated using computer simulation with three small sample sizes (5, 10 and 15) with three multiply‐censored patterns for each sample size. Our results indicate that the MLE is a better estimator of the Weibull characteristic value, θ, than the least squares estimators considered. No firm conclusions may be made regarding the best estimate of the Weibull shape parameter, although the use of maximum likelihood is not recommended for small sample sizes. Whenever least squares estimation of both Weibull parameters is appropriate, we recommend the use of the Zimmer estimator of reliability. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
92.
B.-H. Lee & S.-B. Lee 《Fatigue & Fracture of Engineering Materials & Structures》2000,23(12):1007-1101
In the present study, a stochastic model is developed for the low-cycle fatigue life prediction and reliability assessment of 316L stainless steel under variable multiaxial loading. In the proposed model, fatigue phenomenon is considered as a Markov process, and damage vector and reliability are defined on every plane. Any low-cycle fatigue damage evaluating method can be included in the proposed model. The model enables calculation of statistical reliability and crack initiation direction under variable multiaxial loading, which are generally not available. In the present study, a critical plane method proposed by Kandil et al . ( Metals Soc., London 280, 203–210, 1982) maximum tensile strain range, and von Mises equivalent strain range are used to calculate fatigue damage. When the critical plane method is chosen, the effect of multiple critical planes is also included in the proposed model. Maximum tensile strain and von Mises strain methods are used for the demonstration of the generality of the proposed model. The material properties and the stochastic model parameters are obtained from uniaxial tests only. The stochastic model made of the parameters obtained from the uniaxial tests is applied to the life prediction and reliability assessment of 316L stainless steel under variable multiaxial loading. The predicted results show good aggreement with experimental results. 相似文献
93.
DVD租赁优化方案 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在线租赁是信息时代发展的必然趋势。在租赁过程中,网络经营者主要关注DVD的预测、购买和分配。本文提出了简单随机抽样、分类预测和关联预测等三种方法进行需求预测。针对问题一,利用需求预测得到观霜DVD的人数服从二项分布,并计算出多种可靠度下购买DVD的数量。以会员的最大满意度为目标函数,建立一个整数规划模型,得到问题二的分配方案。并计算出前30位会员的分配结果。在问题三中,我们考虑到60%的会员由于两次租赁而导致DVD可重复利用,因而,采用了两阶段购买的策略,在每个购买阶段都建立了双目标整数规划,从而得到的购买量比原来网站拥有量小,并且会员的满意度达到99.38%,本文最后还给出了考虑归还DVD周期的情形下购买与分配的模型。 相似文献
94.
一种新型红外遥测板形检测仪 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
介绍了一种新型的红外遥测板形检测仪的结构及其工作原理,给出了该仪器的主要技术指标。 相似文献
95.
Kiyoshi Ishii 《Structural Safety》1986,4(2):111-129
This paper describes a stochastic finite element method using the first-order approximation at a failure point of a set of random variables. The method is extended to equivalent normal represtation of non-normal distributions and offers two advantages: (1) It gives a consistent measure of failure probability for the limit-states defined in terms of different but equivalent performance function formulations, (2). It can be applied to reliability analysis for non-normal variants. Results using this method are compared favorably with that of Monte Carlo simulation in a simple example. Furthermore, this method will be applied to earth slope stability analysis to give probability levels for local and global failures on a potential failure surface. 相似文献
96.
Gregory L. Boylan Byung Rae Cho 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2012,28(3):249-264
Continuous quality improvement is an effort to improve the quality of products, processes, or services. A program intended to effectively implement such efforts begins with the collection and analysis of data. The primary purpose of the normal probability plot, which is one of the most frequently used graphical tools by quality practitioners and researchers, is for normality testing; however, the plot offers other valuable insights into data analysis that have rarely been addressed in the research community. This article provides an overview of distributional characteristics in the context of the four sample moments and investigates how variations in these moments affect the normal probability plot, focusing primarily on the presence of skewness and kurtosis and the effects of variability. This article then lays out a comprehensive analysis of how various statistical characteristics within a data set can influence the shape and corresponding properties of a normal probability plot, demonstrating how variations in the characteristics of the data can reveal or mask the degree of concavity, convexity, or the S shape in the plot, as well as the spread of the data about the mean and in the tails. This can provide engineers with a better understanding of the ways in which data “communicate” through the plot, thereby providing a better basis for initial assumptions, as well as facilitating more accurate model estimation and optimization results thereafter. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
97.
《Quality Engineering》2012,24(2):230-252
ABSTRACTTesting programs exist to establish initial estimates of reliability for strategic weapon systems and to determine significant changes in reliability. The methods to determine the appropriate sample sizes are based on one- and two-sample estimates of proportions. There are guidelines that exist that provide specific methods to determine sample sizes for strategic weapons systems. The methods used are considered to be quite conservative, and this article investigates alternative approaches for both initial and follow-on test sizing for weapon system reliability estimates. The methods are compared through Monte Carlo simulation. 相似文献
98.
Spencer Graves Søren Bisgaard Murat Kulahci John Van Gilder John James Ken Marko Hal Zatorski Tom Ting Cuiping Wu 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2007,23(2):189-201
Modern products frequently feature monitors designed to detect actual or impending malfunctions. False alarms (Type I errors) or excessive delays in detecting real malfunctions (Type II errors) can seriously reduce monitor utility. Sound engineering practice includes physical evaluation of error rates. Type II error rates are relatively easy to evaluate empirically. However, adequate evaluation of a low Type I error rate is difficult without using accelerated testing concepts, inducing false alarms using artificially low thresholds and then selecting production thresholds by appropriate extrapolation, as outlined here. This acceleration methodology allows for informed determination of detection thresholds and confidence in monitor performance with substantial reductions over current alternatives in time and cost required for monitor development. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
99.
Jyh‐Jen Horng Shiau Jian‐Huang Sun 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2010,26(5):475-486
The Phase I analysis in statistical process control usually includes a task of filtering out out‐of‐control data in the historical data set via control charting. The conventional procedure for this is an iterative procedure that first uses all the samples to set up initial trial control limits and discards all the ‘out‐of‐control’ samples accordingly, and then iteratively repeats the screening step on the remaining samples until no more ‘out‐of‐control’ samples are detected. For simplicity, the ‘out‐of‐control’ samples here refer to the samples with their monitoring statistics exceeding the trial control limits. It is found in this study that this procedure throws away too many useful in‐control samples. To overcome this drawback, we propose and study a new iterative procedure that discards only one ‘out‐of‐control’ sample (i.e. the most extreme one) at each iteration. Our simulation study, using the Shewhart X Chart for illustration, demonstrates that the new one‐at‐a‐time procedure reduces dramatically the occurrences of false alarms. For cost‐saving, we further suggest a new strategy on when to stop and inspect the process to look for assignable causes for samples signaling out‐of‐control alarms. To determine the control limits, both the traditional method that controls the individual false‐alarm‐rate and the Bonferroni method that controls the overall false‐alarm‐rate are considered. The performances of the proposed schemes are evaluated and compared in terms of the false‐alarm rate and the detecting power via simulation studies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
100.
利用矩点估计法简化响应面可靠度指标的计算 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对响应面可靠度指标计算方法的缺陷,将罗森布鲁斯统计矩点估计法引入到经典响应面方法中对其进行改进。改进后响应面方法,考虑基本随机变量偏态情况,改变了模拟试验中随机变量抽样值的计算方法;直接采用了统计矩计算可靠度指标,使可靠度指标的计算在真实极限状态曲面的某些特殊点上进行;在计算过程中不需拟合近似极限状态曲面和对非线性方程进行线性化处理,不产生迭代误差和累积误差,计算过程简洁明了。最后分别利用改进的响应面方法和经典响应面方法分析了某一矿山大型工程的稳定可靠性,并以蒙特卡洛法计算结果作为准精确解进行了比较,计算结果满足工程要求。 相似文献