A Half Century of Long-Range Energy Forecasts: Errors Made, Lessons Learned, and Implications for Forecasting

This paper assesses the major U.S. long-range energy forecasting studies conducted over the past half century, identifies the errors made and lessons learned in energy forecasting, and discusses the implications for current and future attempts to accurately forecast energy consumption, production, and prices. Over the past several decades, long-range energy forecasting has been extremely difficult and the accuracy of the major forecasts has, in retrospect, often been found wanting. Although, in hindsight, a large portion of the forecasts and associated policy recommendations turned out to be inaccurate and mistaken, here we conduct a careful review of 50 years of energy forecasting to determine how some of the major pitfalls can be avoided in future efforts. We identify: (1) lessons that can be learned from these past forecasting exercises that may improve our track record in the future; (2) basic trends and truisms that may be discerned that may allow us to more accurately forecast energy technologies and variables; (3) insights for doing the job better in the future; (4) the most egregious forecasting errors made in the past that can help us avoid making similar errors in the future; (5) assumptions that may aid us in better predicting the long-run energy future; and (6) how this review can assist policymakers in formulating energy policies and technology and R&D priorities for the future.     

辽宁省水利建设成就与展望

建国５０ 年来， 辽宁省水利工程体系日趋完善， 到１９９８ 年底， 已累计建成防洪、灌溉排水、供水、水土保持、水力发电等各类工程１１万处， 形成１１０ 多亿元的水利固定资产。辽宁省水利建设与改革在取得巨大成就的同时， 也积累了丰富的经验， 如正确处理建设与管理的关系， 坚持科技兴水， 坚持工程标准和质量， 坚持依法治水等。文中提出了辽宁省水利建设存在的问题及相应的解决措施。     

Review of The psychology of existence: An integrative, clinical perspective.

Reviews the book, The psychology of existence: An integrative, clinical perspective by Kirk J. Schneider and Rollo May (see record 1994-98741-000). There are three goals of this book: 1) to introduce the present generation of graduate students to the richness and value of existential psychotherapy, 2) to show how existential principles and treatments can be integrated with other clinical perspectives and treatments, and 3) to provide a critical link between these goals of integrating existential theory with other clinical perspectives and therapies and showing how existential principles and treatments are applied in real cases. Dividing the text into three parts, the authors present the historical roots of existentialism and recent and future trends in existential-integrative psychology. In addition, they address therapeutic applications. The reviewer concludes that this book is a creative contribution to therapy literature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

无尾梁液压支架的研究

分析了国内几种常用液压支架的特点,研究设计了一种新型液压支架架型—无尾梁液压支架,阐述了无尾梁液压支架的结构特点,指明了无尾梁液压支架的应用前景。     

新型水仓自动清挖系统设备及工艺的研究

雨季前对水仓中的煤泥进行清挖,以保证汛期井下生产安全。分析了以往各种水仓清挖系统设备及其工艺的不足,在此基础上提出了新型水仓自动清挖系统的技术特点、工艺特征及其应用前景。     

大型养殖场沼气工程——以北京德青源沼气工程为例

结合国内外大中型沼气工程情况,以德青源沼气工程为例,介绍了农村废弃物变废为宝的工艺流程,提供了农村能源解决方案,并结合我国沼气工程现有问题提出几点建议,以使大中型沼气工程走向规范化.     

变风量空调系统的特点和发展前景

本文主要介绍了变风量空调系统的优缺点,并根据其特点展望了变风量空调系统在自动化楼宇系统中的发展前景.     

变风量空调系统的特点和发展前景

本文主要介绍了变风量空调系统的优缺点,并根据其特点展望了变风量空调系统在自动化楼宇系统中的发展前景.     

结构力学性能测试仪器的应用状况及发展趋势

介绍结构力学性能测试的应用领域及相关测试仪器的分类及发展历程,分析了当前结构力学性能测试仪器的技术发展趋势,对市场发展前景及行业需求容量进行了预测。     

科普网游及其产业发展研究

科普网游以科普为目的,以网络游戏为表现形式,符合社会公众教育、科普形式创新和网络游戏产业发展的需求,具有广阔的产业前景与市场前景。促进科普网游产业发展需要政府及相关部门、科普网游行业及企业的积极参与和共同努力。