API X52管线钢与Corus RQT 701超高强钢的焊接工艺

针对超高强钢在机械行业的广泛使用,焊接接头易出现淬硬脆化、裂纹等缺陷的情况,采用焊条电弧焊(SMAW)和药芯气体保护焊(FCAW-GS)组合的焊接方法,对API X52管线钢与Corus RQT 701超高强钢的焊接进行了工艺试验,并进行常规力学性能试验。结果表明,通过合理匹配焊接工艺参数,严格控制低热输入量及层间温度,实现了小熔合比的异种钢焊接,且焊接接头具有良好的力学性能,达到了标准和规格书的要求;异种高强钢焊接,采用SMAW打底焊接和FCAWGS填充并盖面的方法,焊接效率较单纯采用焊条电弧焊工艺提高2倍以上。     

A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations

The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a “time-to-an-event” is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a “time-to-event” modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).     

PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The economic system is viewed as a complex system of actors that interact by competition and coalition. Its evolution is described by morphodynamics, a general theory based on the thermodynamics of physical systems. The economic system then is represented as exchanging services and monetary signs with its environment, namely people. These exchanges are ruled by principles analogous to the principles of thermodynamics. Thus, reversible exchanges found a theory of money supply, wages and prices, whereas irreversible exchanges account for monetary profits, inflation and the long term growth of the economy.     

A tribe competition-based genetic algorithm for feature selection in pattern classification

Feature selection has always been a critical step in pattern recognition, in which evolutionary algorithms, such as the genetic algorithm (GA), are most commonly used. However, the individual encoding scheme used in various GAs would either pose a bias on the solution or require a pre-specified number of features, and hence may lead to less accurate results. In this paper, a tribe competition-based genetic algorithm (TCbGA) is proposed for feature selection in pattern classification. The population of individuals is divided into multiple tribes, and the initialization and evolutionary operations are modified to ensure that the number of selected features in each tribe follows a Gaussian distribution. Thus each tribe focuses on exploring a specific part of the solution space. Meanwhile, tribe competition is introduced to the evolution process, which allows the winning tribes, which produce better individuals, to enlarge their sizes, i.e. having more individuals to search their parts of the solution space. This algorithm, therefore, avoids the bias on solutions and requirement of a pre-specified number of features. We have evaluated our algorithm against several state-of-the-art feature selection approaches on 20 benchmark datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed TCbGA algorithm can identify the optimal feature subset more effectively and produce more accurate pattern classification.     

Hierarchical Spatially Varying Coefficient Process Model

The spatially varying coefficient process model is a nonstationary approach to explaining spatial heterogen-eity by allowing coefficients to vary across space. In this article, we develop a methodology for generalizing this model to accommodate geographically hierarchical data. This article considers two-level hierarchical structures and allow for the coefficients of both low-level and high-level units to vary over space. We assume that the spatially varying low-level coefficients follow the multivariate Gaussian process, and the spatially varying high-level coefficients follow the multivariate simultaneous autoregressive model that we develop by extending the standard simultaneous autoregressive model to incorporate multivariate data. We apply the proposed model to transaction data of houses sold in 2014 in a part of the city of Los Angeles. The results show that the proposed model predicts housing prices and fits the data effectively.     

马岭油田北三区延10储层宏观非均质性研究

马岭油田北三区延10储层主要发育平行层理、交错层理、斜层理等层理类型,韵律特征为多期次正韵律叠加;从上到下沉积相属于从曲流河相到辫状河相的过渡,从上到下小层非均质性增强,推测由于辫状河比曲流河河道变化更加频繁,沉积更加复杂导致;研究区平面上的非均质程度较强,对油田的实际开发生产影响程度较大。     

Potential of two cardoon varieties to produce biomass and oil under reduced irrigation and weed control inputs

Cardoon (Cynara cardunculus L.) is an important perennial energy plant, which may produce sufficient biomass under reduced inputs. A 4-years field study was conducted in northern Greece and was repeated for three years in central Greece to determine the productivity of two cardoon varieties (‘Bianco Avorio’ and ‘C12’) under different water (irrigated or non-irrigated) and weed control (weedy or weed-free) conditions. In northern Greece, the density of weeds grown with cardoon increased as years went by, but in central Greece decreased. The absence of irrigation and the presence of weeds significantly reduced cardoon dry biomass, seed and oil yields, especially in the first two years of cultivation. In both environments, irrigated with 90 mm cardoon achieved 22–42% and 35–42% greater dry biomass and seed yield, respectively, than achieved the non-irrigated crop. In weedy cardoon, the dry biomass or seed yields reductions were 33–66% or 41–64%, respectively, in central Greece and 21–95% or 8–99%, respectively, in northern Greece. In central Greece cardoon productivity increased as years went by, but in northern Greece decreased. Generally, the cv. C12 was more productive than the cv. Bianco Avorio. Conclusively, the cardoon cv. C12 could provide satisfactory dry biomass, seed and oil yields for energy use in semi-arid Mediterranean fields, without irrigation or weed control inputs, on condition that they have been successfully established the first year. However, cardoon should be irrigated and weeded in order to provide sufficient yields.     

Modeling target group heterogeneity in experimental consumer studies

Acceptance of a product by a consumer may result from a convoluted interplay between product attributes and individual characteristics of that consumer. Different methods that systematically combine product properties with consumer groups segmented on such characteristics have provided unprecedented insight, but ignore heterogeneity in acceptance within each consumer group. Although such knowledge is invaluable for targeted marketing, dedicated methods for consumer group heterogeneity are lacking. The authors aim to fill this gap by the Individual Differences (InD) method, which models differences between consumers within the same target group. The method scores the ‘diffusion’ within each group, shows how much each consumer contributes to that, and relates this information to product properties. Thereby also novel groups may be discovered, with attributes not covered in the consumer segmentation. The illustrative consumer study on apple juice reveals how young women differ in their price-consciousness and their acceptance on specific preparation technologies more than older women. Although men exhibit heterogeneity on the same product attributes, their mutual variability is considerably lower and they thereby form more homogeneous target groups.     

Development of a cross-section based streamflow routing package for MODFLOW

It is challenging to simulate stream-aquifer interactions for the wide channel streams with the existing stream routing packages of MODFLOW. To overcome this limitation, a Cross-Section streamflow Routing (CSR) package is developed to simulate the streamflow and the interaction between streams and aquifers for the stream with a width larger than the MODFLOW grid size. In the CSR package, streams are divided into stream segments which are formed by two consecutive cross-sections. A cross-section is described by a number of streambed points that determine the geometry and hydraulic properties of the streambed. The stream water depth and streamflow at the cross-sections are related by the Single Channel method, the Divided Channel method, a data table or a power function. A rapid algorithm is used to compute the submerged area of the MODFLOW grid. The streambed conductance of a grid cell is computed based on its submerged area, streambed hydraulic conductivity and thickness. Stream-aquifer seepage is subsequently estimated as the product of the streambed conductance and difference between the stream stage and groundwater hydraulic head. Stream-aquifer seepage is treated as lateral flow in the streamflow routing computation with the Muskingum-Cunge method or mass conservation method. A hypothetical problem is established to test the capabilities of the CSR package with steady- and transient-state models. The results compare favorably with the SFR2 package and the HEC-RAS model. However, significant difference in flood wave attenuation is observed between the CSR package and the SFR2 package. It proves that the CSR package is capable of simulating the variation of stream-aquifer interactions in both space and time efficiently. The CSR package represents a certain improvement over previous MODFLOW streamflow packages by providing the efficient cross-section based computation and the unique capability of simulating streambed heterogeneity in longitudinal and transverse directions.