基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

基于DMF捕获系统频率选择性信道下捕获性能的分析

对基于数字匹配滤波器(DMF)捕获系统在频率选择性信道下的捕获性能进行了深入讨论，利用状态转移图推导出单次驻留判决方式时平均捕获时间的表达式，对平均捕获时间与多径分量的关系进行了数字分析。得出的主要结论是：对于多径分量为非衰落信号时，多径分量之间的能量差别越大，系统捕获性能越好，多径分量的能量相等时，系统捕获性能最差，且随着可以分离的多径路数的增加下降；对于多径分量为慢衰落信号时，多径信道的捕获性能好于单径信道(非频率选择性衰落信道)，且多径分量之间的能量差别越大，系统捕获性能越差，当多径分量的能量相等时，捕获性能最好，这与非衰落信道的情形相反。因此在频率选择性衰落信道中，采用分集接收可以改善系统的捕获性能。     

Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

用作图法测定R50的理论分析

研究了步、机枪射击密集度试验中弹着点半经的顺序统计量，给出了作图法测定Ｒ_（５０）的理论分析，得到了作图法是测定Ｒ_（５０）的好方法的结论．     

Generalization of the Gram-Charlier/Edgeworth Series and Application to Time-Frequency Analysis

We derive a general equation relating probability densities and as special cases we the obtain Gram-Charlier and Edgeworth series. This allows us to generalize these methods and clarify a number of issues pertaining to both probability theory and time-frequency analysis. In particular we show how the Gram-Charlier and Edgeworth series are related to the kernel method of time-frequency analysis. The approach allows us to construct densities that satisfy given constraints such as joint moments or conditional moments. Also, we show that the kernel has to be signal dependent and that to obtain a proper distribution it should be the ratio of two characteristic functions.     

评定飞航导弹单发命中概率的方法研究

通过对抽样检验方法的研究,确立了区间估计的下限公式,用来在已知样本值的情况下确定导弹单发命中概率出现在该区间内的置信水平和精确度。     

Impact of dams on point bar habitat: a case for the extirpation of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle,C. hirticollis abrupta

Quantitative analyses of flow and stage data, remote sensing and geographic information systems analysis, and field studies were used to assess the impact of dams and diversions on the point bar habitat of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle (Cicindela hirticollis abrupta). The reaches of interest include sites of known historic populations of C. h. abrupta along the Sacramento River from approximately 8 km north of Colusa southward to the confluence with the Feather River and along the Feather River between Yuba City and its confluence with the Sacramento River. The results from this study show that construction of two major dams has altered flows such that prolonged and increased flows during summer, fall, and early winter have most likely disrupted life cycles, flooded larvae, drowned overwintering adults and led to high mortality. Additionally, habitat availability has decreased over time because point bars have decreased in number and area causing increased distances between populations and isolation of populations. Moreover, point bar armouring, channel scouring, altered flows, redirected flows through weirs, and lithologic controls have produced a bimodal distribution of mean grain sizes in the Sacramento River in which the more northern bars contain gravel deposits and more southern bars possess fine sands. These conditions negatively alter moisture retention and sediment compaction and, consequently, burrowing conditions needed by this tiger beetle. Additionally, more stabilized flows (reduced variability) and increased fine‐grained deposition have enabled development and encroachment of vegetation onto the sand bars. Finally, human stresses, such as foot traffic and vehicular traffic may have interfered with burrowing, ovipositing, and foraging. The combination of these stress factors has most likely led to a reduction in source populations and, ultimately, the apparent extirpation of the entire metapopulation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Signed line intercept count

Elements of surfaces that bound a phase (β) in a two phase mixture (α+β) may be classified as: (a) convex (++) if both principal curvatures are positive; (b) concave (? ?) if both are negative; and (c) saddle (+ ?) if one is positive and the other negative. This classification excludes the limiting cases for which one or both of the principal curvatures is zero. The traces of these surfaces that form the boundaries of the β areas on a representative two dimensional section may also be: (a) convex (+) if the local curvature is positive; or (b) concave (?) if it is negative. Line intercepts may be tabulated separately for intersections with convex (+) and concave (?) segments of boundary. This paper presents a derivation of fundamental stereological formulae that relate these counting measurements to three-dimensional geometric properties of the structure they sample.     

非均匀裂缝性油藏压力动态

在介绍具有连续基质颗粒大小分布和孔间表皮裂缝性油藏的不稳定压力分析模型的同时。提出了代表实际变化的裂缝密度和均匀性油藏的基质岩块大小分布概率密度函数，给出Laplace空间井筒压力解。该理论通过裂缝跨度变化拓宽了以前的双孔隙油藏模型，在不考虑孔间表皮的情况下，对非均匀裂缝性油藏压力动态进行了分析。