Influence of Missing Values on the Prediction of a Stationary Time Series

Abstract. The influence of missing observations on the linear prediction of a stationary time series is investigated. Simple bounds for the prediction error variance and asymptotic behaviours for short and long‐memory processes respectively are presented.     

Comments on “Is the cause of size effect on structural strength fractal or energetic-statistical?” by Ba?ant & Yavari [Engng Fract Mech 2005;72:1-31]

Aim of this letter to the Editor is at replying to the criticisms raised by Ba?ant and Yavari [Ba?ant ZP, Yavari A. Is the cause of size effect on structural strength fractal or energetic - statistical? Engng Fract Mech 2005;72:1-31] against the fractal approach to the size-scale effects on the mechanical properties of materials and the concept of the Multi-Fractal Scaling Law presented by Carpinteri [Carpinteri A. Scaling laws and renormalization groups for strength and toughness of disordered materials. Int J Solids Struct 1994;31:291-302]. These criticisms will be analysed thoroughly, showing how they also contain some mistakes and misunderstandings. The presented elucidations should redirect the discussion to a more correct scientific debate.     

Influence of Ti Powder Characteristics on Combustion Synthesis of Porous NiTi Alloy

Porous NiTi shape memory alloy (SMA) is a novel biomedical material used for human hard tissue implant .The influence of elemental titanium powder characteristics such as powder morphology, particle size and specific surface area( SSA) on the minimal ignition temperature ,combustion temperature and final product of porous Ni-Ti SMA fabricated by combustion synthesis method was investigated in this paper by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and laser diffraction.The preliminary data indicated that the titanium powder characteristics had a strong effect on combustion synthesis of porous NiTi SMA.     

Putting it all together – Formal verification of the VAMP

In the verified architecture microprocessor (VAMP) project we have designed, functionally verified, and synthesized a processor with full DLX instruction set, delayed branch, Tomasulo scheduler, maskable nested precise interrupts, pipelined fully IEEE compatible dual precision floating point unit with variable latency, and separate instruction and data caches. The verification has been carried out in the theorem proving system PVS. The processor has been implemented on a Xilinx FPGA. A shorter version of this article with the title “Instantiating uninterpreted functional units and memory system: functional verification of the VAMP” appeared in [8]. The work reported here was done while all the authors were with Saarland University.     

Trade-offs between gaze and working memory use.

Eye movements during natural tasks suggest that observers do not use working memory to capacity but instead use eye movements to acquire relevant information immediately before needed. Results here however, show that this strategy is sensitive to memory load and to observers' expectations about what information will be relevant. Depending upon the predictability of what object features would be needed in a brick sorting task, subjects spontaneously modulated the order in which they sampled and stored visual information using working memory more when the task was predictable and reverting to a just-in-time strategy when the task was unpredictable and the memory load was higher. This self organization was evidenced by subjects' sequence of eye movements and also their sorting decisions following missed feature changes. These results reveal that attentional selection, fixations, and use of working memory reflect a dynamic optimization with respect to a set of constraints, such as task predictablity and memory load. They also reveal that change blindness depends critically on the local task context, by virtue of its influence on the information selected for storage in working memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effects of Contaminants on Toxicity of the Lampricides TFM and Bayer 73 to Three Species of Fish

Waters in the Great Lakes basin contain more than 400 contaminant chemicals that potentially affect fishery resources, commerce, and human inhabitants. We determined in the laboratory the effects of selected contaminants on the toxicity of the widely used lampricides TFM (3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol) and Bayer 73 (2′,5-dichloro-4′-nitrosalicylanilide) to three species of fish—rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri), white sucker (Catostomus commersoni), and fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas). The fish were exposed to paired mixtures of lampricides and selected contaminants in standardized, acute static toxicity tests to determine the resulting type of response—less than additive, additive, or greater than additive (synergistic). As expected, the toxicities of combinations of lampricides with organic pesticides, metal, industrial or municipal pollutants, and tannic acid were mostly additive. However, the toxicity of a combination of TFM, Delnav, and malathion was synergistic, and extremely small quantities of each chemical became lethal when mixed. The concentration that produced 50% mortality was 1.64 mg/L for TFM alone but only 0.041 mg/L for TFM with the pesticides. Toxicities of the pesticides in the combination also increased commensurately. The triple combination of chemicals produced extraordinary synergism and effectively demonstrated the hazards that may result if certain chemical combinations occur in the aquatic environment. However, synergism is not the only kind of toxic action that produces hazards to aquatic organisms. All three types of toxic action are of concern because toxic units produced by contaminant chemicals add to the toxic units of applied management chemicals. Since the toxicity of the majority of chemical combinations is simply additive, this cumulative toxic action contributes more total units to aquatic environments than the extreme actions of less than additive and synergism. The toxicity of the lampricide TFM, as well as other management chemicals, is reinforced by the presence of any contaminant that contributes additional units of toxicity. Therefore, all types of cumulative toxic action should be of concern to people and agencies involved with protecting the environment.     

Income, Time Effects and Direct Preferences in a Multimodal Choice Context: Application of Mixed RP/SP Models with Non-Linear Utilities

Transport problems typically involve at least two types of constraints, on income and on time. Therefore, the indirect utility function depends either on the income available after having subtracted the cost of the discrete alternative and on the free time left after having worked and travelled by each competing option. In the typical linear-in-the-attributes and in-the-parameters specification, that represents the first grade approximation of the indirect utility function, the effect of income and time constraints cancel out and only the cost and time of the alternatives matter in the comparison between them. From a microeconomic point of view this is equivalent to assume that income and time effects could be disregarded; which is not always the case. To account for these effects the utility function should include second order attributes; however, in non-linear utility functions it may not be easy to distinguish among several effects that could be relevant: direct preferences for good and leisure, and simple interactions between attributes other than income and time effects. This paper analyses these effects from a theoretical point of view focusing on the possible confounding problem in detecting income and time effects. We use a dataset collected for a modal choice context and containing both revealed and stated preference data, and estimate several NL models examining the effect of the different second-order terms on detecting income and time effects. We compared specifications including square cost and time attributes, interactions between time and cost, cost divided by the income available to be spent on free time, and time multiplied by free time. Our results confirm the strong effect of direct preferences for goods and leisure time on choice, and the potential confounding effect between quadratic attributes and other non-linear omitted terms. Finally, we also found that care should be taken in highlighting income and time effects using mixed data sources, since confounding effects can occur when non-linearities are accounted for in both data sets.     

Generation and context memory.

Generation enhances memory for occurrence but may not enhance other aspects of memory. The present study further delineates the negative generation effect in context memory reported in N. W. Mulligan (2004). First, the negative generation effect occurred for perceptual attributes of the target item (its color and font) but not for extratarget aspects of context (location and background color). Second, nonvisual generation tasks with either semantic or nonsemantic generation rules (antonym and rhyme generation, respectively) produced the same pattern of results. In contrast, a visual (or data-driven) generation task (letter transposition) did not disrupt context memory for color. Third, generating nonwords produced no effect on item memory but persisted in producing a negative effect on context memory for target attributes, implying that (a) the negative generation effect in context memory is not mediated by semantic encoding, and (b) the negative effect on context memory can be dissociated from the positive effect on item memory. The results are interpreted in terms of the processing account of generation. The original, perceptual-conceptual version of this account is too narrow, but a modified processing account, based on a more generic visual versus nonvisual processing distinction, accommodates the results. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A hierarchical model for structure learning based on the physiological characteristics of neurons

Almost all applications of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) depend mainly on their memory ability. The characteristics of typical ANN models are fixed connections, with evolved weights, globalized representations, and globalized optimizations, all based on a mathematical approach. This makes those models to be deficient in robustness, efficiency of learning, capacity, anti-jamming between training sets, and correlativity of samples, etc. In this paper, we attempt to address these problems by adopting the characteristics of biological neurons in morphology and signal processing. A hierarchical neural network was designed and realized to implement structure learning and representations based on connected structures. The basic characteristics of this model are localized and random connections, field limitations of neuron fan-in and fan-out, dynamic behavior of neurons, and samples represented through different sub-circuits of neurons specialized into different response patterns. At the end of this paper, some important aspects of error correction, capacity, learning efficiency, and soundness of structural representation are analyzed theoretically. This paper has demonstrated the feasibility and advantages of structure learning and representation. This model can serve as a fundamental element of cognitive systems such as perception and associative memory.     

A Multinomial Model of Event-Based Prospective Memory.

Prospective memory is remembering to perform an action in the future. The authors introduce the 1st formal model of event-based prospective memory, namely, a multinomial model that includes 2 separate parameters related to prospective memory processes. The 1st measures preparatory attentional processes, and the 2nd measures retrospective memory processes. The model was validated in 4 experiments. Manipulations of instructions to place importance on either the prospective memory task or the background task (Experiments 1 and 2) and manipulations of distinctiveness of prospective memory targets (Experiment 2) had expected effects on model parameters, as did a manipulation of the difficulty of prospective memory target encoding (Experiments 3 and 4). An alternative model was also evaluated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)