基于CREAM的航天发射场人因可靠性定量分析方法研究

以我国航天发射场安全评估为背景,基于认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM),开展航天发射场人因可靠性(HRA)定量分析方法研究。首先结合航天发射场特点对共同绩效条件(CPC)进行改进,之后采用模糊方法处理CPC到控制模式之间的映射关系,提出了环境影响因子值的概念,提出了航天发射场HRA定量分析流程,最后针对火箭吊装过程进行了实例分析。     

基于剩余使用年限的结构生命周期性能设计方法

基于概率理论结构设计的基本目的是使结构在预定的使用期内满足设计所预期的结构可靠性,包括安全性、适用性、耐久性。影响结构可靠性的荷载效应(直接或间接作用引起的结构的各种内力)与结构抗力(指结构承受荷载和变形的能力)因受到各种因素的影响,都是随时间或空间而变动的随机函数。在目前的超高层建筑结构的设计过程中,有关是否需要考虑作用及抗力的时变性能以及如何考虑的规定十分笼统。为了更加明确考虑时变性能在结构设计中的影响,在引入剩余使用年限的基础上提出了基于剩余使用年限的结构生命周期性能设计方法。并以一个超高层建筑为例,阐述了其具体应用,为今后工程中基于时变性能的结构设计提供参考。     

不同温度下磁场对PEMFC的工作性能影响

在质子交换膜燃料电池(PEMFC)阳极侧垂直加载410 mT磁场,考察不同气体温度下磁场对PEMFC工作性能的影响。结果发现:PEMFC在加载磁场后的工作性能优于不加载磁场的电池性能,当工作温度为45℃时,磁场提升PEMFC功率密度最大,达到14.4%。当PEMFC阳极侧和阴极侧采用不同温度条件时,加载磁场后PEMFC的工作性能提升幅度有很大不同,不加磁场时,氢气侧65℃、氧气侧45℃时的极化曲线斜率比氢气侧45℃、氧气侧65℃时的大很多,但加载磁场后,两者之间的斜率差缩小,表明磁场对电池内部氧气传质影响大于对氢气的影响。     

First evidence for the reliability of building co-heating tests

This paper provides powerful evidence empirically demonstrating for the first time the reliability of the co-heating test. The test is widely used throughout Europe to measure the total heat transfer through the fabric of buildings and to calculate the heat-transfer coefficient (HTC; units W/K). A reliable test is essential to address the ‘performance gap’, where in-use energy performance is consistently, and often substantially, poorer than predicted. The co-heating test could meet this need, but its reliability requires confirmation. Seven teams independently conducted co-heating tests on the same detached house near Watford, UK. Despite differences in the weather and in the experimental and analytical approaches, the teams’ final reported HTC measurements were within ±10% of the mean. With further standardization it is likely to be possible to improve upon this reproducibility. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis based upon a 95% confidence interval resulted in an estimated uncertainty in HTC measurements of ±8%. This research addresses persistent doubts about the reliability of the co-heating test. Avenues to further improvement of the test are discussed. This work helps to enable the test’s wider adoption as a component of the regulatory process and thus improvements to standards of house construction.     

Multidimensional benefit–cost evaluation of asphaltic concrete overlays of rigid pavements

Using the data from a national study in the USA, this study demonstrated a comprehensive and multidimensional pavement treatment evaluation methodology and used the methodology to evaluate the short-term and life cycle cost-effectiveness (CE) of five rigid pavement rehabilitation treatments. Four measures of effectiveness were used in this study: the sudden decrease in surface roughness, treatment service life, increase in average pavement condition over the service life and the area bounded by the performance curve. This study established relationships that quantify the influence of pre-treatment condition on treatment effectiveness. Also, the models were developed to describe the treatment effectiveness as a function of traffic loading and climatic severity. It is seen that at high traffic loading, there is relatively little difference in treatment effectiveness across various climate severities. This study suggests that superior effectiveness of a treatment does not necessarily translate into superior CE. Also, the treatment location was found to influence the relative effectiveness of the treatments. Overall, the results suggest that treatment ‘crack-and-seat and 8-in. asphalt concrete overlay’ is the most cost-effective.     

Predicting construction firm performance: an empirical assessment of the differential impact between industry‐ and firm‐specific factors

It is obvious that the performance of firms hinges upon the dynamics of both industry‐ and firm‐specific factors. A less obvious, and perhaps a more important, line of inquiry is that to the extent that they have a bearing on firm performance, how much do these two groups of factors respectively predict firm performance? To date, performance differences among construction firms that stem from industry‐ and firm‐specific differential effect has remained largely unexplored. Using a dataset comprising 526 firms across various construction‐related sectors, the sector‐by‐sector firm performance variation that is attributable to the heterogeneity of both industry‐ and firm‐specific characteristics was empirically examined. That statistically significant results of different effect sizes are found indicates that although these factors are often assumed to be intertwined it is possible to study their respective impact on firm performance. Future studies could usefully replicate and extend this study to construction firms in other countries to further investigate what drives firm performance under different national, industry and firm contexts.     

Introducing the prebound effect: the gap between performance and actual energy consumption

German regulations for the thermal renovation of existing homes demand high thermal standards, which the government claims are technically and economically feasible. This paper examines existing data on 3400 German homes; their calculated energy performance ratings (EPR) are then plotted against the actual measured consumption. The results indicate that occupants consume, on average, 30% less heating energy than the calculated rating. This phenomenon is identified as the ‘prebound’ effect and increases with the calculated rating. The opposite phenomenon, the rebound effect, tends to occur for low-energy dwellings, where occupants consume more than the rating. A similar phenomenon has been recognized in recent Dutch, Belgian, French and UK studies, suggesting policy implications in two directions. Firstly, using a dwelling's energy rating to predict fuel and CO₂ savings through retrofits tends to overestimate savings, underestimate the payback time and possibly discourage cost-effective, incremental improvements. Secondly, the potential fuel and CO₂ savings through non-technical measures such as occupant behaviour may well be far larger than is generally assumed in policies so policy-makers need a better understanding of what drives or inhibits occupants' decisions.

La réglementation allemande relative à la rénovation thermique des logements existants exige des normes thermiques élevées, que le gouvernement prétend être techniquement et économiquement applicables. Cet article examine les données existantes sur 3400 logements allemands; leurs classes d'efficacité énergétique (CEE) calculées sont ensuite comparées à la consommation réelle mesurée. Les résultats indiquent que les occupants consomment, en moyenne, 30 % d'énergie de chauffage en moins que la classe calculée. Ce phénomène est identifié en raison de l'accroissement de l'effet de « pré-bond » avec la classe calculée. Le phénomène opposé, l'effet de rebond, tend à se produire dans les logements à basse consommation d'énergie, dans lesquels les occupants ont une consommation supérieure à la classe. Un phénomène similaire a été reconnu dans des études récentes néerlandaises, belges, françaises et britanniques, suggérant des implications en termes de politiques dans deux directions. En premier lieu, l'utilisation de la classe énergétique d'un logement pour prévoir les économies de combustible et de CO₂ pouvant être obtenues grâce à des rénovations a tendance à surestimer les économies, à sous-estimer le délai d'amortissement et éventuellement à dissuader d'effectuer des améliorations incrémentielles rentables. En second lieu, les économies potentielles de combustible et de CO₂ pouvant être obtenues par des mesures non techniques telles que le comportement des occupants peuvent se révéler être bien plus importantes que cela n'est supposé en règle générale dans les politiques, de sorte que les décideurs ont besoin de mieux comprendre ce qui motive ou empêche les décisions des occupants.

Mots clés: performance des bâtiments, rénovations thermiques, politique climatique, classe énergétique, politique énergétique, comportement de consommation énergétique     

道路有机硅密封胶的性能评价与技术要求

为了评价道路有机硅密封胶的性能,分析了国内外的各种技术标准,根据路用性能要求,提出了表干时间、固化时间、流平性、流值、弹性(复原)率以及低温拉伸这6个评价指标.分别对4种有机硅密封胶(2种进口材料和2种国产材料)进行试验,试验证实这些材料均为自流平材料,表干时间不超过90 min,固化时间为2～3周,弹性(复原)率均超过90％,90℃流值均为0 mm,-30℃下至少可通过100％拉伸量的3次循环.结果表明:有机硅密封胶是高弹性材料,具有开放交通快、施工方便等优点,且具有优越的高低温性能.另外还根据试验结果提出了相应的技术要求.     

网架结构的竖向地震研究

网架结构是杆件按照一定的规律布置,通过节点连接而成的网格状空间杆系结构。网架结构由处在两个平面内的杆件组成,形成平行的上弦与下弦,其间以腹杆与竖杆相连。目前,网架结构的抗震分析方法主要有振型分解反应谱法、随机振动方法和动力时程分析法。利用结构有大型限元分析软件SAP2000对三个不同跨度的正放四角锥网架结构进行分析,研究了网架的跨度的变化对自振特性及杆件内力的影响。     

太阳能中水源热泵与相变蓄热耦合供暖研究

新能源开发和利用是解决能源短缺的重要途径,提出一种新型的太阳能、中水源热泵与相变蓄热装置耦合供暖系统,阐述了该系统的研究思路、技术原理及运行方案。比较分析了耦合供暖系统、中水源热泵系统和太阳能热水采暖系统三种运行模式下的系统性能系数,得出结论：耦合供暖系统能够在缩减运行费用的同时,提高中水源热泵机组的能效比,并降低太阳能热水采暖系统热损失率。