Possible aggregation biases in road safety research and a mechanism approach to accident modeling

In accident reconstruction, individual road accidents are treated as essentially deterministic events, although incomplete information can leave one uncertain about how exactly an accident happened. In statistical studies, on the other hand, accidents are treated as individually random, although the parameters governing their probability distributions may be modeled deterministically. Here, a simple deterministic model of a vehicle/pedestrian encounter is used to illustrate how naïvely applying statistical methods to aggregated data could lead to an ecological fallacy and to Simpson’s paradox. It is suggested that these problems occur because the statistical regularities observed in accident data have no independent status, but are simply the result of aggregating particular types and frequencies of mechanisms.     

Early user involvement in the development of information technology-related products for older people

The UTOPIA project (Usable Technology for Older People—Inclusive and Appropriate) is focused on developing effective methods for the early involvement of older people in the development of information technology-related products for people aged 60 and over, and on providing industry with tools to assist in the development of information technology products for such older people. An essential part of this methodology is building a diverse user base, forming a long-lasting partnership with older people, and developing approaches for effective interaction with this target user group. Our experiences with eliciting information from groups of older people about technology is described, together with a report on seminars for Scottish industry designed to raise an awareness of these issues.     

Factors associated with the likelihood of injury resulting from collisions between four-wheel drive vehicles and passenger cars

The specific effects of vehicular type on the likelihood of an injury occurring are relatively unexplored. This study sought to assess the relative risk of injury to occupants of four-wheel drive vehicles and their counterparts in passenger cars.Data for 1143 occupants from all of the 454 crashes in Oklahoma, in 1995 that involved a four-wheel drive vehicle were used. Multiple logistic regression analysis determined the association between potential predictive factors and vehicular injury. Odds ratios revealed occupancy in a passenger car to be a major predictor of the likelihood of injury. Other factors include the driver being female, driving too fast, travel on curved or level roadways, and being hit laterally or from the rear.     

Fraternity and sorority involvement, social influences, and alcohol use among college students: A prospective examination.

This study used latent growth curve modeling to investigate whether the effects of gender and Greek involvement on alcohol use and problems over the first 2 years of college are best characterized by selection, socialization, or reciprocal influence processes. Three social influences (alcohol offers, social modeling, and perceived norms) were examined as potential mediators of these effects. Undergraduate participants (N = 388) completed self-report measures prior to enrollment and in the spring of their freshmen and sophomore years. Male gender and involvement in the Greek system were associated with greater alcohol use and problems prior to college. Both gender and Greek involvement significantly predicted increases in alcohol use and problems over the first 2 years of college. Cross-domain analyses provided strong support for a mediational role of each of the social influence constructs on alcohol use and problems prior to matriculation, and prematriculation social modeling and alcohol offers mediated relations between Greek involvement and changes in alcohol use over time. Findings suggest that students, particularly men, who affiliate with Greek organizations constitute an at-risk group prior to entering college, suggesting the need for selected interventions with this population, which should take place before or during the pledging process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Socioeconomic status, schooling, and the developmental trajectories of adolescents.

The socioeconomic stratification of American society profoundly influences how the life course unfolds by shaping various developmental pathways as well as the connections among these pathways. Drawing on a nationally representative sample of American adolescents, this study charted trajectories of personal control and parental consultation from middle school to the end of high school and then examined how various combinations of these trajectories were associated with math/science course taking in high school across socioeconomic strata. Results indicated that low and/or decreasing levels of personal control were associated with the accumulation of fewer math/science credits, as were declining levels of parental consultation no matter what the initial level. Mismatches between control and consultation trajectories (e.g., high, stable control with low, stable consultation) were also associated with fewer math/science credits. These patterns tended to be less predictive of math/science credit accumulation at the highest and lowest ends of the socioeconomic spectrum. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predictors of supportive coparenting after relationship dissolution among at-risk parents.

Supportive coparenting after relationship dissolution is associated with increased father involvement which can buffer against the negative effects of parental relationship dissolution. Low-income, at-risk families are much more likely to experience relationship dissolutions; hence, supportive coparenting after dissolution is particularly important in these families. We examined whether relationship (commitment and quality) and child (difficult temperament and gender) characteristics predicted initial levels of, and change in, supportive coparenting after relationship dissolution in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 1,603). We used structural equation modeling of latent growth curves to examine four time points collected at the focal child's birth and first, third, and fifth birthdays. Ninety-percent of the mothers had nonmarital births, and about three-quarters had a high school diploma or less education. Overall, supportive coparenting decreased over time. Mothers in more committed relationships prior to the dissolution initially had significantly lower supportive coparenting. But over time, mothers who had been in more committed relationships increased in supportive coparenting. Mothers who had been in higher quality relationships prior to dissolution initially reported more supportive coparenting. At each time point, if a mother was romantically involved with a new partner, she reported significantly lower supportive coparenting compared to mothers who were single. With regard to child characteristics, mothers who reported their child as more difficult had significantly lower initial supportive coparenting. Similar results for fathers are discussed. Overall, the relationship characteristics of parents were important predictors of supportive coparenting both initially and over time. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Bending collapse of thin-walled circular tubes and computational application

This paper focuses on describing the bending collapse behavior of thin-walled circular tubes. In this paper, global energy equilibrium theory is applied to derive the relationship between the applied moment and the bending angle of circular tubes. A general bending collapse mode of circular tubes is referenced for the derivation, and it is assumed that during bending crush, all impact energy is absorbed and distributed along the hinge lines. After obtaining the relationship, it is compared to a published theory of tubular structure's bending resistance, which was obtained from analytical and experimental studies. The derived bending resistance is then applied to generate simplified circular tube models, which have different cross-sections and are made of different materials. Crashworthiness analyses are performed on these simplified models as well as detailed tube models, and the crash results are compared to verify the efficiency of the generated simplified model and the accuracy of the derived tube's bending resistance. All the problems involved in this paper are solved by means of LS-DYNA.     

A model for process-based crash simulation

Manufacturing of a bumper system from aluminium extrusions often involves series of forming operations performed in the soft W-temper condition, and then artificially age-hardening of the components to the material's peak hardness T6 condition. It is probable that proper finite element (FE) modelling of the crash performance of the resulting systems must rely upon a geometry obtained from an FE model following the process route, i.e., including simulation of all major forming operations. The forming operations also result in an inhomogeneous evolution of some internal variables (among others the effective plastic strain) within the shaped components. Results from tensile tests reveal that plastic straining in W-temper leads to a significant change of the T6 work-hardening curves. In addition, the tests show that the plastic pre-deformation causes a reduction of the elongation of the T6 specimens. In the present work, these process effects have been included in a user-defined elastoplastic constitutive model in LS-DYNA incorporating a state-of-the-art anisotropic yield criterion, the associated flow rule and a non-linear isotropic work hardening rule as well as some ductile fracture criteria. A first demonstration and assessment of the modelling methodology is shown by ‘through-process analysis’ of two uniaxial tensile test series. The industrial use and relevance of the modelling technique is subsequently demonstrated by a case study on an industrial bumper beam system.     

Small, robust, and important: Reply to Sloan and Bagiella (2001).

Responds to R. P. Sloan and E. Bagiella's (see record 2001-06506-009)comments on the M. E. McCullough, et al (see record 2000-03769-001) article regarding religious involvement and morality. McCullough et al note that Sloan and Bagiella compared their findings with results from individual studies of hopelessness and physical activity that used criteria other than morality. The present authors argue that such comparisons are meaningless. Sloan and Bagiella's questioning of the statistical nonsignificance of the fully adjusted association is addressed. Methodological issues are also discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)