Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

An optimization model for evaluating the economic impact of availability and maintenance notions during the synthesis and design of a power plant

In this paper, we introduce an optimization strategy in order to comprehensively quantify the impact of availability and maintenance notions during the early stages of synthesis and design of a new natural gas combined cycle power plant. A detailed state-space approach is thoroughly discussed, where influence of maintenance funds on each component's repair rate is directly assessed.In this context, analysis of the reliability characteristics of the system is centered at two designer-adopted parameters, which largely influence the obtained results: the number of components which may fail independently at the same time, and the number of simultaneous failure/repair events.Then, optimal solutions are evaluated as the availability-related parameters and the amount of resources assigned for maintenance actions are varied across a wide range of feasible values, which enable obtaining more accurate and detailed estimations of the expected economic performance for the project when compared with traditional economic evaluation approaches.     

GOS+MU:一种查询对象选择新方法

在分析单一MU(Most Uncertainty)采样缺陷的基础上,提出一种"全局最优搜寻"方法 GOS(Global Optimal Search),并结合MU共同完成查询选择。GOS+MU方法中,GOS着眼全局寻找目标,在应用环境能提供的训练样本数量有限、分类器受训不充分时,该方法选择的对象学习价值高,能快速推进分类器学习进程;MU则能够在GOS采样失效情形下,利用分类器当前训练成果,选择查询不确定性最强的样本补充训练集。通过对网络商品的用户评论进行分类仿真,并比较其他采样学习方法的效果,证明了GOS+MU方法在压缩学习成本、提高训练效率方面的有效性。     

Systematic approach for recognizing limiting factors for growth of biomethane use in transportation sector – A case study in Finland

In this paper, limiting factors for increased use of biomethane as a transportation fuel are studied. The aim of this research is to recognize and estimate the limiting factors for biomethane utilization in the transportation sector. The limiting factors are studied by using calculation models from Life cycle perspective and literature reviews. According to the results, the main limiting factors can be classified into the following categories: production potential, technology, economy or policy. For biomethane utilization in Finland, the main limiting factors seem to be the lack of distribution infrastructure in northern parts of the country and the uncertain economical feasibility for agricultural biomass producers and for vehicle owners. From the political perspective, the external costs for petrol operated vehicles are higher than for biomethane operated vehicles. Reductions from the external costs could be used by political decisions as a base to support the growth of biomethane in the transportation sector which could lead to GHG emission reductions. A similar systematic approach can also be used to study limiting factors for other transportation energy systems.     

1 000 t/a书籍装订热熔胶技术经济分析

介绍了书籍装订热熔胶生产工艺及产品的技术指标，对1000t/a生产装置的投资与产品成本进行了核算。分析结果表明，总投资110万元，年利润达266万元。     

加强电站无功管理

加强电站无功管理，不但能改善供电质量，满足电网的要求，提高单位的经济效益，而且使设备的安全运行得到了保障。     

我国化学工业产业技术政策研究与思考(要点)

简要分析了我国化工产业技术发展的现状、背景 ,提出了“十五”期间我国化学工业产业技术发展的重点和政策措施     

一种基于策略的网络管理结构方案

介绍了基于策略的网络管理的概念和当前的研究状况，在策略定义、冲突检测和系统安全问题等方面进行了讨论，提出了一种适合基于策略的网络管理的结构方案，并分析了该方案的合理性。     

《宏观经济学》课程教学体系梳理

宏观经济学从资源如何充分利用这一独特的研究视角出发，以国民收入的决定为核心，以从二部门到部门到四部门为横线，从简单模型到扩展模型到总供求模型为纵线，从理论到政策为立线，构造了一个立体的理论框架体系。对宏观经济学的理论脉络进行梳理，能帮助学生提纲挈领地把握宏观经济学的理论体系。     

Adaptive motion control using neural network approximations

In this paper, we present a new adaptive technique for tracking control of mechanical systems in the presence of friction and periodic disturbances. Radial Basis Functions (RBFs) are used to compensate for the effects of nonlinearly occurring parameters in the friction and periodic disturbance model. Theoretical analysis, such as stability and transient performance, is provided. Furthermore, the performance of the adaptive RBF controller and its non-adaptive counterpart are compared.