风险控制模型及仿真分析

对经济主体的主要风险控制方案和损失模型作了研究，给出了风险自留、采取安全防护措施、购买保险转移风险、购买保险同时采取安全防护措施、购买免陪额保险和购买免陪额保险并采取安全防护措施等6种风险控制方案的损失函数和损失效用函数。证明了损失函数为凸函数，存在风险最优控制策略。在此基础上设计了随机仿真过程模型，实例的实际运行表明，随机仿真是可行的。     

基于威胁分析的信息系统风险评估方法

对信息系统风险评估的方法有多种，该文提出了基于威胁分析的量化风险评估方法。包括其评估的步骤、量化的不同实现方式——绝对量化方式和相对量化方式、两种量化方式的优缺点分析以及两种量化方式评估的举例说明。     

如何构筑烟草行业省级信息网络安全防护体系的构筑

对烟草行业信息安全需求进行了分析，并对如何构筑省一级的行业信息安全防护体系从设计思路、目标方法和方案设计方面进行了一定的思考，提出了烟草行业网络与信息安全建设的目标、方法、技术、管理和服务等几大体系的建设思路。     

最少量化在实验研究产生的放射性废物管理中的实施

通过源项的引入控制、实践正当化、安全与防护最优化、废物产生的课题化管理、分类收集分别处理等措施的实施，落实废物最少量化在核科研中的实施，减少对环境的危害，降低废物处理处置费用，促进核技术的发展应用。     

Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains

This paper proposes a method using probabilistic risk analysis for application to corrosion associated failures in grey cast iron water mains. External corrosion reduces the capacity of the pipeline to resist stresses. When external stresses exceed the residual ultimate strength, pipe breakage becomes imminent, and the overall reliability of a water distribution network is reduced. Modelling stresses and external corrosion acting on a pipe involves uncertainties inherent in the mechanistic/statistical models and their input parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were used to perform the probabilistic analysis. The reduction in the factor of safety (FOS) of water mains over time was computed, with a failure defined as a situation in which FOS becomes smaller than 1. The MC simulations yielded an empirical probability density function of time to failure, to which a lognormal distribution was fitted leading to the derivation of a failure hazard function. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the contribution of corrosion parameters to the variability of time to failure was more significant than the combined contributions of all other parameters. Areas where more research is needed are identified.     

Stochastic Asset Pricing with Seismic Hazard Risk

Since cash flow of asset in the long run is generally subject to economic fluctuation, and also to potential damage due to seismic hazard risk, asset pricing is more relevantly evaluated, provided that uncertainties of both cash flow and seismic risk are properly taken into account. This study will propose a discounted cash flow method to evaluate asset pricing, in which incomes gained from asset are modeled as a Markov process and seismic loss is modeled due to only one earthquake event during the service time. A numerical example is demonstrated for an 11 story steel reinforced commercial building considering the service time of 50 years. Various risk–asset price curves are numerically obtained in the form of probability of excess versus asset price with discount rate as a parameter for cases with and without earthquake loss taken into account, and for a case in which earthquake strengthening measure is implemented. These curves contribute information to decision makers in charge of risk and investment management.     

Risk Assessment Methodology for Underground Construction Projects

This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for underground construction projects. A formalized procedure and associated tools were developed to assess and manage the risks involved in underground construction. The suggested risk assessment procedure is composed of four steps of identifying, analyzing, evaluating, and managing the risks inherent in construction projects. The main tool of the proposed risk assessment methodology is the risk analysis software. The risk analysis software is built upon an uncertainty model based on fuzzy concept. The fuzzy-based uncertainty model is designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both (1) probabilistic parameter estimates and (2) subjective judgments. Other tools developed in this study include the survey sheets for collecting risk-related information and the detail check sheets for risk identification and analysis. The paper finally discusses a detailed case study of the developed risk assessment methodology performed for a subway construction project in Korea.     

Agent机会发现的一种相关性描述

机会发现和机会管理(ChanceDiscoveryandChanceManagement)是近年国际上人工智能等领域提出的一个新的研究课题。该文给出一种CD相关性定义来刻画ChanceEvent与agent目标之间的基本联系,为解决ChanceDis-covery的两个基本问题——“特征问题”和“区分问题”——提供了一个初步的方案。     

Supply-side inoperability input–output model (SIIM) for risk analysis in manufacturing systems

This paper proposes a methodological approach in risk analysis of interdependent manufacturing systems which is based on Ghosh model - a variation of the Leontief input-output model. The proposed approach is able to quantify the impact of supply perturbations in a manufacturing system in terms of cost-price increase in production output due to increase in prices of value-added input brought about by degraded supply resulting from natural or man-made disasters and sudden policy changes. Unlike demand-driven perturbation models presented in literature, the supply-driven inoperability input-output model (SIIM) appears to be more relevant particularly in make-to-order manufacturing systems as demand is usually pre-determined and production costs typically increase when prices of inputs increase. An actual case study was carried out in a furniture manufacturing firm in central Philippines and three scenarios were presented to illustrate the proposed approach: (1) a sudden log ban in the location of the supplier, (2) increase in labor costs and (3) metal shortage caused by severe weather condition. Results show that supply perturbation of upstream processes does not impact downstream processes as long as these processes remain independent of the perturbed upstream process as described in firm's system structure and topology. This also shows that the magnitude of impact of non-perturbed process depends on its nature of interdependence of the perturbed process. The proposed approach is highly relevant for manufacturing practitioners in formulating and implementing mitigation and adaptation policies.     

Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features

Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement.