The development of risk assessment models for carpal tunnel syndrome: a case-referent study

The present study developed risk assessment models for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) which can provide information of the likelihood of developing CTS for an individual having certain personal characteristics and occupational risks. A case-referent study was conducted consisting of two case groups and one referent group: (1) 22 work-related CTS patients (W-CTS), (2) 25 non-work related CTS patients (NW-CTS), and (3) 50 healthy workers (HEALTHY) having had no CTS history. The classification of CTS patients into one of the case groups was determined according to the type of insurance covering their medical costs. Personal characteristics, psychosocial stresses at work, and physical work conditions were surveyed by using a questionnaire tailor-designed to CTS (reliability of each scale ? 0.7). By contrasting the risk information of each case group to that of the referent group, three logistic regression models were developed: W-CTS/HEALTHY, NW-CTS/HEALTHY, and C-CTS/HEALTHY (C-CTS, the combined group of W-CTS and NW-CTS). ROC analysis indicated that the models have satisfactory discriminability (d′ = ;1.91 to 2.51) and high classification accuracy (overall accuracy = 83 – 89%). Both W-CTS/HEALTHY and C-CTS/HEALTHY include personal and physical factors, while NW-CTS/HEALTHY involves only personal factors. This suggests that the injury causation of NW-CTS patients should be attributable mainly to their ‘high’ personal susceptibility to the disorder rather than exposure to adverse work conditions, while that of W-CTS patients be attributable to improper work conditions and CTS-prone personal characteristics in combination.     

The consumer’s perception of artificial food additives: Influences on acceptance,risk and benefit perceptions

Food additives, such as food colours or sweeteners, play an important part in food supply. For a variety of reasons, some consumers might regard the use of food additives, especially artificial ones, with suspicion; food additives are considered unnatural, unhealthy or even a public health risk. The goal of this study was to investigate consumers’ perceptions and the most essential variables related to the acceptance of food additives. Two versions of a paper-and-pencil questionnaire, one investigating artificial food colours and the other investigating artificial sweeteners, were distributed to a large sample of Swiss German households. The final samples for artificial food colours and artificial sweeteners comprised 506 and 487 participants respectively. The questionnaires contained items on consumers’ acceptance, risk and benefit perception, trust in regulators, knowledge of regulation and their preference for natural products. The relationships between variables were investigated in a path model, which was constructed based on a review of previous literature. The path coefficients suggested that risk and benefit perceptions significantly influence the acceptance of the two selected food additives. The risk and benefit perceptions were influenced by consumers’ knowledge of regulation, their trust in regulators, and their preference for natural products. In the discussion, the study’s findings are examined in terms of their implications for further research and for the development of concrete communication materials.     

Modeling spot price dependence in Australian electricity markets with applications to risk management

We examine the dependence structure of electricity spot prices across regional markets in Australia. One of the major objectives in establishing a national electricity market was to provide a nationally integrated and efficient electricity market, limiting market power of generators in the separate regional markets. Our analysis is based on a GARCH approach to model the marginal price series in the considered regions in combination with copulae to capture the dependence structure between the marginals. We apply different copula models including Archimedean, elliptical and copula mixture models. We find a positive dependence structure between the prices for all considered markets, while the strongest dependence is exhibited between markets that are connected via interconnector transmission lines. Regarding the nature of dependence, the Student-t copula provides a good fit to the data, while the overall best results are obtained using copula mixture models due to their ability to also capture asymmetric dependence in the tails of the distribution. Interestingly, our results also suggest that for the four major markets, NSW, QLD, SA and VIC, the degree of dependence has decreased starting from the year 2008 towards the end of the sample period in 2010. Examining the Value-at-Risk of stylized portfolios constructed from electricity spot contracts in different markets, we find that the Student-t and mixture copula models outperform the Gaussian copula in a backtesting study. Our results are important for risk management and hedging decisions of market participants, in particular for those operating in several regional markets simultaneously.     

Cooperation in the evolutionary iterated prisoner’s dilemma game with risk attitude adaptation

The Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma (IPD) game has been commonly used to investigate the cooperation among competitors. However, most previous studies on the IPD focused solely on maximizing players’ average payoffs without considering their risk preferences. By introducing the concept of income stream risk into the IPD game, this paper presents a novel evolutionary IPD model with agents seeking to balance between average payoffs and risks with respect to their own risk attitudes. We build a new IPD model of multiple agents, in which agents interact with one another in the pair-wise IPD game while adapting their risk attitudes according to their received payoffs. Agents become more risk averse after their payoffs exceed their aspirations, or become more risk seeking after their payoffs fall short of their aspirations. The aspiration levels of agents are determined based on their historical self-payoff information or the payoff information of the agent population. Simulations are conducted to investigate the emergence of cooperation under these two comparison methods. Results indicate that agents can sustain a highly cooperative equilibrium when they consider only their own historical payoffs as aspirations (called historical comparison) in adjusting their risk attitudes. This holds true even for the IPD with a short game encounter, for which cooperation was previously demonstrated difficult. However, when agents evaluate their payoffs in comparison with the population average payoff (called social comparison), those agents with payoffs below the population average tend to be dissatisfied with the game outcomes. This dissatisfaction will induce more risk-seeking behavior of agents in the IPD game, which will constitute a strong deterrent to the emergence of mutual cooperation in the population.     

A network analysis of official Twitter accounts during the West Virginia water crisis

Online networks using Web 2.0 technologies have proven useful for communication among all parties involved in managing crises. These networks rapidly disseminate information allowing for coordination among organizations responding to the needs of those whose safety and wellbeing are threatened by the crisis and its aftermath. This study provides a network analysis of official Twitter accounts activated during the Charleston, West Virginia, water contamination crisis in 2014. The city’s water supply was rendered unfit for drinking or bathing after 7500 gallons of a toxic chemical leaked into the Elk River. The network created by the 41 Twitter accounts associated with the West Virginia water contamination lacked density, contained several isolates, exchanged information quickly (geodesic distance diameter), and contained both national and local accounts. The lack of density indicates limited exchange of information, particularly between national and federal accounts. The rapid dissemination of the information that was shared and the fact that some accounts did bridge the local and national gap, however, show the positive potential for such networks in responding to crises.     

Do time‐averaged,whole‐building,effective volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions depend on the air exchange rate? A statistical analysis of trends for 46 VOCs in U.S. offices

We used existing data to develop distributions of time‐averaged air exchange rates (AER), whole‐building ‘effective’ emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and other variables for use in Monte Carlo analyses of U.S. offices. With these, we explored whether long‐term VOC emission rates were related to the AER over the sector, as has been observed in the short term for some VOCs in single buildings. We fit and compared two statistical models to the data. In the independent emissions model (IEM), emissions were unaffected by other variables, while in the dependent emissions model (DEM), emissions responded to the AER via coupling through a conceptual boundary layer between the air and a lumped emission source. For 20 of 46 VOCs, the DEM was preferable to the IEM and emission rates, though variable, were higher in buildings with higher AERs. Most oxygenated VOCs and some alkanes were well fit by the DEM, while nearly all aromatics and halocarbons were independent. Trends by vapor pressure suggested multiple mechanisms could be involved. The factors of temperature, relative humidity, and building age were almost never associated with effective emission rates. Our findings suggest that effective emissions in real commercial buildings will be difficult to predict from deterministic experiments or models.     

Guidelines and recommendations for indoor use of fuel cells and hydrogen systems

Hydrogen energy applications often require that systems are used indoors (e.g., industrial trucks for materials handling in a warehouse facility, fuel cells located in a room, or hydrogen stored and distributed from a gas cabinet). It may also be necessary or desirable to locate some hydrogen system components/equipment inside indoor or outdoor enclosures for security or safety reasons, to isolate them from the end-user and the public, or from weather conditions.Using of hydrogen in confined environments requires detailed assessments of hazards and associated risks, including potential risk prevention and mitigation features. The release of hydrogen can potentially lead to the accumulation of hydrogen and the formation of a flammable hydrogen-air mixture, or can result in jet-fires. Within Hyindoor European Project, carried out for the EU Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking safety design guidelines and engineering tools have been developed to prevent and mitigate hazardous consequences of hydrogen release in confined environments. Three main areas are considered: Hydrogen release conditions and accumulation, vented deflagrations, jet fires and including under-ventilated flame regimes (e.g., extinguishment or oscillating flames and steady burns). Potential RCS recommendations are also identified.     

Food-related hazards in China: Consumers' perceptions of risk and trust in information sources

This paper identifies segments of Chinese consumers based on their perception of personal risk, how worried they are and their subjective knowledge about seven possible food-related hazards: additives, residues, counterfeit, inferior, genetically modified, deteriorated and nutritionally imbalanced food. Data were collected through a consumer survey conducted in Beijing (534 participants) and in Baoding (437 participants). Three clusters were identified: worried and knowledgeable consumers (60.1%), worried and ignorant consumers (21.7%) and moderately worried consumers (18.2%). The first two groups reported a high level of worry and high perception of personal risk about food-related hazards in China. The two hazards they were most worried about were counterfeit food and inferior quality food. Television, internet and personal communication were the three information channels most frequently used by participants to obtain information about food safety. Worried and ignorant consumers reported less frequent use of magazines, books and brochures compared with other consumers. Medical doctors, personal experience and research institutes were the three most trusted information sources for the first two groups of consumers. Moderately worried consumers only placed high levels of trust in medical doctors and themselves. Consumers' perceptions about the knowledge, honesty and concern of different information sources significantly and positively affected their trust in those sources. The study concludes by making recommendations as to how to improve communications with the different identified consumer segments and identifies future research required to expand its validity.     

Assumptions necessary and unnecessary to risk homoeostasis

This paper discusses recent criticisms of the theory of risk homoeostasis which has been put forward to explain the spatial, temporal and per capita traffic accident risk in a given jurisdiction, as well as their pattern of interrelation. Four assumptions have recently been proposed in the literature as being necessary for the theory to be valid. These were viewed as wanting and, therefore, presented as a challenge to the theory in question. In the present discussion, these four assumptions are examined on their conceptual pertinence. It is concluded that, without some major and some seemingly minor-yet theoretically crucial—modifications, none of these assumptions appear to be essential to the validity of the theory under debate.     

Risk perceptions and approaches in multi-organizations: A research review 2000–2012

Shared risks and opportunities set specific premises for risk management (RM) in temporary multi-organizations (TMOs). However, most project RM research is presented from the perspective of a single-organizational project delivery team or covers limited risk perceptions and RM approaches. This paper aims to address how well the body of knowledge on multi-organizational RM corresponds to a state-of-art understanding on project RM and to identify which gaps need to be addressed in future research. The review involves: 1) the preferred view of risk as threat and/or opportunity, 2) the nature of addressed risks as anticipated or unanticipated risks or unrealistic assumptions, 3) the role of the multi-organization as the source of risks and/or resources for risk management (RM), and 4) the allocation of risk responsibilities. The review covers research papers published between 2000 and 2012 in four journals: International Journal of Project Management (IJPM), Project Management Journal (PMJ), Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (JCEM), and IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering (TSE). 105 eligible research papers were identified. The results and conclusion outline the identified main gaps in multi-organizational RM research compared to the state-of-art RM research and TMO-specific characteristics. The results can be used to inform research agendas on more holistic and dynamic multi-organizational RM concepts.