A decision support methodology with risk assessment on prediction of terrorism insurgency distribution range radius and elapsing time: An empirical case study in Thailand

The objectives of this research are to design and develop a practical decision support methodology with efficient prediction tool and risk assessment analysis of a terrorism insurgency situation. The proposed methodology consists of two main parts as: (1) the prediction modelling and (2) risk assessment analysis. The Improvised Explosive Device (IED) incidents from 2007 to 2013 in the capital district of Yala province, the southern part of Thailand, are collected and generated to the methodology as a case study implementation. The proposed methodology is capable of indicating and illustrating the risk assessment prediction results of terrorism insurgency incidents. Furthermore, the demonstration of the Explosive Ordnance Disposal Mobile Unit (EODMU) based upon a Risk Assessment Radar Chart is investigated. In practical terms of applying the proposed methodology, the Thai Government can concentrate on a critical operation zone under a Risk Assessment Radar Chart, resulting in a more accurate operation and leading to a much lower number of casualties.     

A Bayesian approach to model dispersal for decision support

In agricultural and environmental sciences dispersal models are often used for risk assessment to predict the risk associated with a given configuration and also to test scenarios that are likely to minimise those risks. Like any biological process, dispersal is subject to biological, climatic and environmental variability and its prediction relies on models and parameter values which can only approximate the real processes. In this paper, we present a Bayesian method to model dispersal using spatial configuration and climatic data (distances between emitters and receptors; main wind direction) while accounting for uncertainty, with an application to the prediction of adventitious presence rate of genetically modified maize (GM) in a non-GM field. This method includes the design of candidate models, their calibration, selection and evaluation on an independent dataset. A group of models was identified that is sufficiently robust to be used for prediction purpose. The group of models allows to include local information and it reflects reliably enough the observed variability in the data so that probabilistic model predictions can be performed and used to quantify risk under different scenarios or derive optimal sampling schemes.     

The potential of public participation to facilitate infrastructure decision-making: Lessons from the German and European legal planning system for electricity grid expansion

The article examines the potential role that public engagement and participative pro-cesses to play a role in effective infrastructure planning in the context of energy policies. For example, by 2050, at least 80% of Germany’s electricity has to be derived from re-newable energy sources if Germany is to meet the goals of its own energy policy. This includes the comprehensive and accelerated extension of the electricity grid. As a result of the magnitude of these changes, the German energy transition is not proceeding without debate and controversy. Public engagement is certainly no panacea for en-hanced social acceptance, yet it offers substantial potential to facilitate the energy tran-sition. The paper draws together social science and legal expertise in order to investi-gate the role of public participation in legal planning processes concerning energy infra-structures. The paper not only focuses on the extension of the German power grid, but also deals with participative policy at the European level. To this end, the paper analyzes the potential role of the German legal planning system in grid expansion and in the Eu-ropean processes of nominating Projects of Common Interest (PCI) and of drawing up the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP).     

在用工业管道风险研判方法

借鉴国际管道技术委员会对输气管道提出的失效原因以及RBI思路，利用“专家打分法”对管道安装、维护、保养、检验等各个环节，量化发生事故的可能性和后果的严重程度，从而以半定量法确定在用工业管道风险值，进而进行风险预警，为压力管道使用单位、河北省质监局安全监察工作提出合理化建议。     

The role of disclosure of personal information in the evaluation of risk and trust in young peoples’ online interactions

This study examined the relationship between the evaluation of risk, trust and disclosure of personal information in young peoples’ online interactions. A series of 18 focus groups were conducted with young people aged 9–19 years old. The results suggested that the majority of young people have a high level of awareness of the risks and potential outcomes associated with their online behaviour. Participants perceived disclosure of personal information to be important for the development of online relationships, and discussed associated strategies for evaluating trust and verifying identity. The study suggests that the perceived benefits associated with the disclosure of personal information and interacting with ‘strangers’ online may outweigh the perceived risks associated with these behaviours as the result of the importance of peer relationships and the exploration of identity during adolescence. Identified age-related differences and similarities in relation to the themes are explored, and areas for future research discussed.     

Broadening the lens for the governance of emerging technologies: Care ethics and agricultural biotechnology

In this paper we argue that insights from feminist perspectives, particularly in the form of an ethics of care, have a number of advantages when used as a lens through which to consider questions relevant to the governance of emerging technologies. We highlight how an emphasis on central themes of importance in feminist theory and care ethics such as relationality, contextuality, dependence, power, affect, and narrative can shine a light on a number of salient issues that are typically missed by the dominant and largely consequentialist risk assessment frame. We argue that the care ethics lens is a better fit when technologies are understood not simply as devices designed to create a certain end experience for a user but as transformative systems that smuggle in numerous social and political interests. The advantages of these care ethics themes for emerging technologies are illustrated through a detailed consideration of agricultural biotechnology. We show how the feminist care ethics lens might have anticipated the very questions that have proved themselves to be the sticking points for this technology. We therefore suggest that applying a care ethics lens can significantly broaden the frame of appraisal processes used for the governance of emerging technologies and usefully grant legitimacy to questions and concerns that are prominent in public discourse but typically left out of practices of risk assessment.     

Beyond information seeking: Consumers’ online deliberation about the risks and benefits of red meat

Successfully engaging consumers in a dialogue may provide opportunities for better tailored and more effective communication about food-related risks and benefits. Using an online deliberation concept and software, VIZZATA™, we explored the validity of a behavioral measure of deliberation in an online environment in the context of consumers’ perceptions and information seeking about the risks and benefits of red meat. Participants from Belgium, Portugal and the United Kingdom (n = 150) were given the opportunity to engage in an asynchronous interaction with the research team about the information provided. Online deliberation was operationalized as an individual metric based on the number of questions asked in relation to the information, the number of comments left, the number of glossary terms accessed, and the time spent on deliberative activity. This operationalization provided a coherent measure of deliberation which was positively correlated with information recall about the risks and benefits of red meat. Participants who perceived the information about red meat risks and benefits as too complex engaged less with the information. The study herewith presents a novel method of investigating consumers’ deliberation about food issues that conceptualizes consumer engagement as more than just information seeking.     

Selection of risk response actions with consideration of secondary risks

Secondary risk in project risk management refers to the risk that arises as a direct result of implementing a risk response action (RRA). It is important for project managers (PMs) to consider the effects caused by the secondary risks in the process of RRA selection. The purpose of this paper is to propose an optimization method to address the problem of selecting risk response actions (RRAs) with consideration of secondary risk which is seldom considered in the existing studies. The optimization model aims to minimize the total risk costs with time constraint being placed on the project makespan. By solving the model, an optimal set of RRAs along with the earliest start time for each activity can both be obtained. The results show that secondary risk plays an important role in the process of RRA selection. Project managers should allocate more budget for responding the project risk when the secondary risk is considered, and consider all factors relating to both time and cost so as to select appropriate RRAs to mitigate primary risk and secondary risk.     

Risk and unit commitment decisions in scenarios of wind power uncertainty

This paper addresses the problem of decision making in Unit Commitment in systems with a significant penetration of wind power. Traditional approaches to Unit Commitment are inadequate to fully deal with the uncertainties associated to wind, represented by scenarios of forecasted wind power qualified by probabilities. Departing from a critique of planning paradigms, the paper argues that a stochastic programming approach, while a step in the good direction, is insufficient to model all aspects of the decision process and therefore proposes the adoption of models based on a Risk Analysis paradigm. A case study is worked out reinforcing this perspective. In a multi-objective context, the properties of the cost vs. risk Pareto-optimal fronts are analyzed, where risk may be represented by aversion to a worst scenario or a worst event. It is shown that the Pareto-optimal front may not be convex, which precludes a simplistic use of tradeoff concepts. It is also shown that decisions based on stochastic programming may in fact put the system at risk. An evaluation of risk levels and cost of hedging against undesired events is proposed as the paradigm to be followed in Unit Commitment decision making.     

Managing risks in public-private partnership formation projects

While sourcing by means of Public-Private Partnerships has been lauded over recent years, increasingly risks appear to jeopardise public organisations' unique societal tasks. Integrated Risk Management has not yet been applied to public organisations getting involved in PPP in the sense of understanding risk management capabilities. This article explores risk awareness and risk management practices underpinning maintenance partnership formation by means of a dual case study of two PPP projects and a short industry survey. The results suggest that organisations face several “intolerable risks” linked to project governance and project management responsibilities: insufficient representation of qualified employees, absence of a shared performance system, assignment of responsibilities and decision-making authority, impractical or inappropriate partnership agreement, and timing of the partnership initiative. Cross-case analysis revealed the role of different levels of risk awareness and senior management involvement. Drawing on these findings, a framework for risk management for PPP formation projects is developed.