不确定输入对电力负荷预测的影响

有关天气的输入变量不确定性会造成较大的预测偏差 .新方法比使用多层感知器的网络有更准确的预测均值 ,这个新方法包括传统的训练后的神经网络和用来计算预测负荷的均值及置信区间的一组方程 .     

电磁阀的有限元法磁场分析及吸力计算

提出了电磁阀的吸力计算公式 ,建立了电磁阀的二维有限元模型 ,利用模型进行了计算软件的设计 .运用此软件对某公司生产的SRS电磁阀进行了磁场分析和电磁力计算 ,通过比较发现计算结果与测试结果吻合较好 .同时给出了电磁力和功耗随导线线径、匝数变化的关系曲线 ,讨论了电磁力和功耗与导线线径和匝数之间的关系 .     

110kVSF_6断路器爆炸事故分析

简述一台110kVSF6断路器B相爆炸事故情况,并分析了其原因。     

Microforms in Gravel Bed Rivers: Formation, Disintegration, and Effects on Bedload Transport

This research aims to advance current knowledge on cluster formation and evolution by tackling some of the aspects associated with cluster microtopography and the effects of clusters on bedload transport. The specific objectives of the study are (1) to identify the bed shear stress range in which clusters form and disintegrate, (2) to quantitatively describe the spacing characteristics and orientation of clusters with respect to flow characteristics, (3) to quantify the effects clusters have on the mean bedload rate, and (4) to assess the effects of clusters on the pulsating nature of bedload. In order to meet the objectives of this study, two main experimental scenarios, namely, Test Series A and B (20 experiments overall) are considered in a laboratory flume under well-controlled conditions. Series A tests are performed to address objectives (1) and (2) while Series B is designed to meet objectives (3) and (4). Results show that cluster microforms develop in uniform sediment at 1.25 to 2 times the Shields parameter of an individual particle and start disintegrating at about 2.25 times the Shields parameter. It is found that during an unsteady flow event, effects of clusters on bedload transport rate can be classified in three different phases: a sink phase where clusters absorb incoming sediment, a neutral phase where clusters do not affect bedload, and a source phase where clusters release particles. Clusters also increase the magnitude of the fluctuations in bedload transport rate, showing that clusters amplify the unsteady nature of bedload transport. A fourth-order autoregressive, autoregressive integrated moving average model is employed to describe the time series of bedload and provide a predictive formula for predicting bedload at different periods. Finally, a change-point analysis enhanced with a binary segmentation procedure is performed to identify the abrupt changes in the bedload statistic characteristics due to the effects of clusters and detect the different phases in bedload time series using probability theory. The analysis verifies the experimental findings that three phases are detected in the bedload rate time series structure, namely, sink, neutral, and source.     

Structured Latent Curve Models for the Study of Change in Multivariate Repeated Measures.

This article considers a structured latent curve model for multiple repeated measures. In a structured latent curve model, a smooth nonlinear function characterizes the mean response. A first-order Taylor polynomial taken with regard to the mean function defines elements of a restricted factor matrix that may include parameters that enter nonlinearly. Similar to factor scores, random coefficients are combined with the factor matrix to produce individual latent curves that need not follow the same form as the mean curve. Here the associations between change characteristics in multiple repeated measures are studied. A factor analysis model for covariates is included as a means of relating latent covariates to the factors characterizing change in different repeated measures. An example is provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Phase I IASC-ASCE Structural Health Monitoring Benchmark Problem Using Simulated Data

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is a promising field with widespread application in civil engineering. Structural health monitoring has the potential to make structures safer by observing both long-term structural changes and immediate postdisaster damage. However, the many SHM studies in the literature apply different monitoring methods to different structures, making side-by-side comparison of the methods difficult. This paper details the first phase in a benchmark SHM problem organized under the auspices of the IASC–ASCE Structural Health Monitoring Task Group. The scale-model structure adopted for use in this benchmark problem is described. Then, two analytical models based on the structure—one a 12 degree of freedom (DOF) shear-building model, the other a 120-DOF model, both finite element based—are given. The damage patterns to be identified are listed as well as the types and number of sensors, magnitude of sensor noise, and so forth. MATLAB computer codes to generate the response data for the various cases are explained. The codes, as well as details of the ongoing Task Group activities, are available on the Task Group web site at 〈http://wusceel.cive.wustl.edu/asce.shm/〉.     

Design Strategies for Piled Rafts Subjected to Nonuniform Vertical Loading

The piled raft is a geotechnical composite construction, consisting of the three elements piles, raft, and soil, which is applied for the foundation of tall buildings in an increasing number. In a parametric study, 259 different piled raft configurations have been analyzed by means of three-dimensional elastoplastic finite element analyses. In the study, the pile positions, the pile number, the pile length, and the raft-soil stiffness ratio as well as the load distribution on the raft has been varied. In the scope of this paper, the results of the parametric study are presented and design strategies for an optimized design of piled rafts subjected to nonuniform vertical loading are discussed.     

Validation of Idiosyncratic Cognitive Schema in Cognitive Case Formulations: An Intraindividual Idiographic Approach.

This article describes a method for the intraindividual clinical validation of a cognitive case formulation (CCF) involving hypotheses about the patient's idiosyncratic cognitive schema (ICS). The two-stage approach begins by testing the convergent and discriminant validity of the hypothesized ICS against the individual's daily ratings of cognition items using confirmatory dynamic factor analysis. The second stage evaluates the extent to which the ICS factor scores predict daily variability in symptoms and distress and further addresses convergent and discriminant validity by evaluating intraindividual cognitive content specificity and the incremental validity of the idiographic cognition factors compared with nomothetic measures of thoughts/beliefs. This approach to validating idiographic assessment is illustrated with the CCF of a woman with comorbid mood and anxiety disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

CCD离散性对面积测量的影响

分析了电荷耦合器件(CCD)在空间和彩色(或灰度)的离散特性对面积测量的影响。通过统计特定区域的边界点和分析图像分割的效果,提出了一种评价CCD相关误差的方法。举例说明了图像分割方法对面积测量的影响很大,为此,讨论了正确使用CCD和提高面积测量精度的相应措施。     

Application of Fourier Analysis to Digital Imaging for Particle Shape Analysis

The shape of aggregates has an important influence on the behavior of civil engineering materials. Digital imaging techniques provide unique opportunities for describing these features in an automated fashion. Shape analysis of fine and coarse aggregate particles is investigated in this study using Fourier transform of digital images. The geometric signature of each shape is extracted by measuring the distance between its centroid and the boundary at constant increment of angles, and Fourier transforms are used to evaluate its spectral information. The number of highest amplitude harmonics required for accurate profile regeneration is evaluated. Shape of a given aggregate particle is reconstructed using inverse Fourier transforms considering a limited number of significant harmonics. A parameter that can quantify the error between regenerated and original profiles is proposed. Using this value, two shape parameters are defined to describe the overall shape and the ruggedness of a particle. A procedure of quantitatively describing the roundness/angularity of aggregate shape is presented and extended to three dimensions using orthogonal views.