Developing Cost Response Models for Company-Level Cost Flow Forecasting of Project-Based Corporations

The difficulty in applying the standard curve (S-curve) and cost-schedule integration (CSI) techniques for company-level cost flow forecasting in a project-based industry is the prerequisite of forecasting future unknown individual projects and contract classifications. By analyzing cost flows at the company level through a pool of macroeconomic and internal financial data, this paper proposes an innovative approach to firm-specific model estimation. First, a series of data transformations introduce linear relationships between cost, macroeconomic, and internal financial variables. Second, multivariate regression analysis is employed for initial model building. Third, for the purposes of model restructuring, a subsequent application of Yule–Walker estimates and incomplete principal component analysis is used. This paper uses a sample of four project-based construction firms to demonstrate model performance. Using this methodology, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the forecasting models range from 0.27 to 0.60%. As such, the transformed cost, macroeconomic, internal financial data could strongly predict company-level cost flow forecasting. While converting the predicted cumulative cost data to periodic cost flows, the MAPE values were augmented, ranging from 7.04 to 17.55%, thus, requiring future research.     

Free-Edge and Ply Cracking Effect in Angle-Ply Laminated Composites Subjected to In-Plane Loads

This paper presents a semianalytical method for the prediction of interlaminar stresses and displacements near the free edges and ply cracks in general angle-ply laminates subjected to biaxial extensions and/or in plane shear deformation. The method is based on a state space representation of the three-dimensional equations of elasticity. Numerical solutions are obtained by using layer refinement in the through thickness direction and Fourier series expansion in the other directions. By this approach, an angle-ply laminate may be composed of an arbitrary number of monoclinic layers and each layer may have different material property and thickness. This method guarantees continuous fields of all interlaminar stresses across interfaces between material layers. Numerical results are compared with those obtained from other methods. It is found that the theory provides a satisfactory approximation to the stress singularities near the free edges and ply cracks. Numerical solutions for antisymmetric laminates under extension and general laminates under shearing are new in the literature and can be used as benchmarks for validating new models.     

Mining for trigger events with survival analysis

This paper discusses a new application of data mining, quantifying the importance of responding to trigger events with reactive contacts. Trigger events happen during a customer’s lifecycle and indicate some change in the relationship with the company. If detected early, the company can respond to the problem and retain the customer; otherwise the customer may switch to another company. It is usually easy to identify many potential trigger events. What is needed is a way of prioritizing which events demand interventions. We conceptualize the trigger event problem and show how survival analysis can be used to quantify the importance of addressing various trigger events. The method is illustrated on four real data sets from different industries and countries.     

超分子主体化合物在分析化学中的应用研究进展

综述了近年来超分子主体化合物在分析化学领域的应用研究与进展。分别以冠醚、环糊精、杯芳烃、卟啉4类超分子为主体功能化合物的研究进行了详细的评述，并对这几类主体化合物在分析化学中的应用研究进行了展望。     

井冈山水厂设计体会

阐述水厂设计中对水厂规模、水源地、净水厂位置及净水工艺的确定过程，根据原水的特点，通过分析对无阀滤池进行改良。     

电接点压力表补水泵定压系统的应用

阐述了电接点压力表补水泵定压系统的一些应用问题 ,给出了电接点压力表定压点的上、下限计算公式 ,并提出了该系统补给水泵、补给水箱及安全阀的设计选型方法     

An analysis of shielding against DC magnetic fields generated by electric railways. Evaluation of effective permeability of fine structure

This paper describes an effective analysis of magnetic shielding based on homogenization. The analyses become time‐consuming if the problems include the magnetic substances having fine structure. The homogenization of the structure makes it possible to analyze effectively the magnetic fields. The authors introduce a method to estimate the effective permeability of the homogenized substance. This method can be applied to any periodic structure made of magnetic substance. The magnetic shielding effects by the structures against direct‐current (DC) fields generated by electric railways are analyzed by using the present method. As a result, it is found that the overhead way and the protective fence near the railway work as a magnetic shield, whose effects can be improved by appropriate arrangement of those constructions. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 160(4): 7–15, 2007; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20310     

Pool boiling on a superhydrophilic surface

Titanium Dioxide, TiO₂, is a photocatalyst with a unique characteristic. A surface coated with TiO₂ exhibits an extremely high affinity for water when exposed to UV light and the contact angle decreases nearly to zero. Inversely, the contact angle increases when the surface is shielded from UV. This superhydrophilic nature gives a self-cleaning effect to the coated surface and has already been applied to some construction materials, car coatings and so on. We applied this property to the enhancement of boiling heat transfer. An experiment involving the pool boiling of pure water has been performed to make clear the effect of high wettability on heat transfer characteristics. The heat transfer surface is a vertical copper cylinder of 17 mm in diameter and the measurement has been done at saturated temperature and in a steady state. Both TiO₂-coated and non-coated surfaces were used for comparison. In the case of the TiO₂-coated surface, it is exposed to UV light for a few hours before experiment and it is found that the maximum heat flux (CHF) is about two times larger than that of the uncoated surface. The temperature at minimum heat flux (MHF) for the superhydrophilic surface is higher by 100 K than that for the normal one. The superhydrophilic surface can be an ideal heat transfer surface. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

反拍卖采购:一种新的采购模式

反拍卖采购技术以其新的理念和对信息技术的融合，能够使企业采购成本大幅度降低。通过对我国传统采购模式与反拍卖采购模式的对比分析，可以了解到反拍卖采购技术的应用前景。     

Use of rheology, dielectric analysis and differential scanning calorimetry for gel time determination of a thermoset

Measurements of gel time of the epoxy system DGEBA(n=0)/m-XDA were carried out using rheometry and dielectric analysis with the objective of checking the validity of Mangion-Johari equation (DEA) and Harran-Laudouard criterium (rheometry) for gel time determination. In this work, gel times obtained by rheometry and dielectric analysis are compared and conversions at gel time calculated. From the experimental results obtained for gel times it was found a reasonable agreement between the two techniques that lead to gel conversion values very close to those obtained using Flory equation.