Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: A case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support

Bayesian inference provides a formal framework for assessing the odds of hypotheses in light of evidence. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to a wide range of diagnostic challenges in the field of chance discovery, including the problem of disputed authorship that arises in electronic commerce, counter-terrorism and other forensic applications. For example, when two documents are so similar that one is likely to be a hoax written from the other, the question is: Which document is most likely the source and which document is most likely the hoax? Here I review a Bayesian study of disputed authorship performed by a biblical scholar, and I show that the scholar makes critical errors with respect to several issues, namely: Causal Basis, Likelihood Judgment and Conditional Dependency. The scholar’s errors are important because they have a large effect on his conclusions and because similar errors often occur when people, both experts and novices, are faced with the challenges of Bayesian inference. As a practical solution, I introduce a graphical system designed to help prevent the observed errors. I discuss how this decision support system applies more generally to any problem of Bayesian inference, and how it differs from the graphical models of Bayesian Networks.     

东津水电站引水隧洞进口不良地质段施工

东津水电站引水隧洞进口段工程地质条件恶劣，施工干扰大，渡汛工期紧。采用喷锚支护洞脸边坡，洞口明挖３ｍ浇筑钢筋混凝土明拱和Ｌ形护坡墙；洞身段采用新奥法施工，先打通上导洞；进口４０ｍ分段开挖，分段衬砌；进水塔压板混凝土模板采用门字框架钢支撑；排除了施工干扰，防止了洞口滑塌，进口段塌方的恶性事故发生，保证了引水隧洞工程的顺利施工。     

i－line光刻高均匀照明系统光能分布的计算模拟

叙述了ｉ－ｌｉｎｅ光刻高均匀照明系统的均匀照明原理，以及其具有特殊面形（非球面）、特殊结构（非共轴）、超光学表面（由多个非共轴光学表面组成）的光学系统的光能分布计算模拟的原理、方法。作为例子，用所编写的程序计算模拟了我们近来设计的一曝光系统几个重要光学表面上具有权重的点列图和光能分布曲线。     

Linear variational principle for convex vector maximization

For infinitely dimensional convex vector maximization problems, it is proved that there exists, under certain conditions, an arbitrarily small additive perturbation of the performance criterion by a linear continuous operator such that the perturbed problem has efficient solutions. The study was sponsored by the Ukrainian State Fund for Basic Research __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 2, pp. 105–114, March–April 2007.     

Comparative study on adaptive rational macromodels of highly resonant structures

Two macromodeling techniques using rational bases are investigated to accurately predict the natural frequencies of highly resonant microwave structures. Three methods are proposed and compared to calculate pole‐free solutions to the Thiele continued fraction and vector fitting pole‐residue models of the characteristic equation det[Z(s)]. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J RF and Microwave CAE, 2007.     

CXFTV2: A Fortran subroutine for the discrete least squares convex approximation

A Fortan subroutine calculates the least squares approximation to n data values containing random errors subject to non-negative second divided differences (convexity). The method employs a dual active set quadratic programming technique that allows several concavities of an iterate to be corrected simultaneously, which is a distinctive feature of this calculation. A B-spline representation of the iterates reduces each active set calculation to an unconstrained minimization with fewer variables that requires only O(n) computer operations. Details in these techniques including the data structure that establishes the implementation of the method are specified. Numerical testing on a variety of data sets indicates that the subroutine is particularly efficient, terminating after a small number of active set changes, the subroutine being suitable for large numbers of data. A numerical example and its output is provided to help the use of the software.     

军事地理信息系统的现状与发展

在信息作战条件下，军事地理信息系统（MGIS）作为作战指挥自动化、数字化战场和现代武器系统的战场地理环境平台备受世界各国的重视。美国投入了大量人力、物力和财力先后研制并使用了地形分析系统等一系列应用系统，目前正着手研制地理影像情报综合管理系统（TPED）和地理影像与地理空间信息系统。我国的MGIS起步较晚，但发展很快，已成功地研制出了第一个具有自主版权的MGIS工具软件。该软件采用层次化体系结构和面向对象的设计方法，具有功能齐全、结构紧密、安全性好等特点。文章在分析国内外MGIS的基础上，着重介绍了军事地理信息系统软件的研制特点，并对军事地理信息系统进一步发展要解决的若干问题进行了探讨。     

Negotiation support systems: roots, progress and needs

Abstract. This paper identifies game theories and social behavior science as important roots for negotiation support systems (NSS) research. As these are not typically cited in the NSS literature, summary reviews of them are provided with indications of their relevance to NSS study. On the other hand, neither offers a sufficiently general-purpose formal model of negotiation that could serve as a backbone for NSS research. A survey of that research is provided, indicating that prugress to date has been somewhat eclectic and devoid of such a model. Our central contention is that a theoretical foundation for NSS study is much needed. Desirable characteristics of a suitable negotiation model are identified as guidance for future research that will aim to devise (and subsequently apply and test) such a model.     

次生伽马能谱分析方法的实验研究

本文指出一种地化学闭合模型的热中子瞬发活化伽马分析方法，它是地球化学测井的核心技术，标准谱的获得，基于标准谱的加权最小二乘解谱方法、灵敏度刻度及地球化学闭合模型是这一方法的关键环节。