State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

Elitist clonal selection algorithm for optimal choice of free knots in B-spline data fitting

Data fitting with B-splines is a challenging problem in reverse engineering for CAD/CAM, virtual reality, data visualization, and many other fields. It is well-known that the fitting improves greatly if knots are considered as free variables. This leads, however, to a very difficult multimodal and multivariate continuous nonlinear optimization problem, the so-called knot adjustment problem. In this context, the present paper introduces an adapted elitist clonal selection algorithm for automatic knot adjustment of B-spline curves. Given a set of noisy data points, our method determines the number and location of knots automatically in order to obtain an extremely accurate fitting of data. In addition, our method minimizes the number of parameters required for this task. Our approach performs very well and in a fully automatic way even for the cases of underlying functions requiring identical multiple knots, such as functions with discontinuities and cusps. To evaluate its performance, it has been applied to three challenging test functions, and results have been compared with those from other alternative methods based on AIS and genetic algorithms. Our experimental results show that our proposal outperforms previous approaches in terms of accuracy and flexibility. Some other issues such as the parameter tuning, the complexity of the algorithm, and the CPU runtime are also discussed.     

GOS+MU:一种查询对象选择新方法

在分析单一MU(Most Uncertainty)采样缺陷的基础上,提出一种"全局最优搜寻"方法 GOS(Global Optimal Search),并结合MU共同完成查询选择。GOS+MU方法中,GOS着眼全局寻找目标,在应用环境能提供的训练样本数量有限、分类器受训不充分时,该方法选择的对象学习价值高,能快速推进分类器学习进程;MU则能够在GOS采样失效情形下,利用分类器当前训练成果,选择查询不确定性最强的样本补充训练集。通过对网络商品的用户评论进行分类仿真,并比较其他采样学习方法的效果,证明了GOS+MU方法在压缩学习成本、提高训练效率方面的有效性。     

Revisiting the Parallel Strategy for DOACROSS Loops

Journal of Computer Science and Technology - DOACROSS loops are significant parts in many important scientific and engineering applications, which are generally exploited pipeline/wave-front...     

ACCUGRAM: A novel approach based on classification to frequency band selection for rotating machinery fault diagnosis

Frequency band selection (FBS) in rotating machinery fault diagnosis aims to recognize frequency band location including a fault transient out of a full band spectrum, and thus fault diagnosis can suppress noise influence from other frequency components. Impulsiveness and cyclostationarity have been recently recognized as two distinctive signatures of a transient. Thus, many studies have focused on developing quantification metrics of the two signatures and using them as indicators to guide FBS. However, most previous studies almost ignore another aspect of FBS, i.e. health reference, which significantly affect FBS performance. To address this issue, this paper investigates importance of a health reference and recognize it as the third critical aspect in FBS. With help of the health reference, the frequency band where the fault transient exists could be located. A novel approach based on classification is proposed to integrate all three aspects (impulsiveness, cyclostationarity, and health reference) for FBS. Classification accuracy is developed as a novel indicator to select the most sensitive frequency band for rotating machinery fault diagnosis. The proposed method (coined by accugram) has been validated on benchmark and experiment datasets. Comparison results show its effectiveness and robustness over conventional envelope analysis, the kurtogram, and the infogram.     

Sofosbuvir Selects for Drug-Resistant Amino Acid Variants in the Zika Virus RNA-Dependent RNA-Polymerase Complex In Vitro

The nucleotide analog sofosbuvir, licensed for the treatment of hepatitis C, recently revealed activity against the Zika virus (ZIKV) in vitro and in animal models. However, the ZIKV genetic barrier to sofosbuvir has not yet been characterized. In this study, in vitro selection experiments were performed in infected human hepatoma cell lines. Increasing drug pressure significantly delayed viral breakthrough (p = 0.029). A double mutant in the NS5 gene (V360L/V607I) emerged in 3 independent experiments at 40–80 µM sofosbuvir resulting in a 3.9 ± 0.9-fold half- maximal inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) shift with respect to the wild type (WT) virus. A triple mutant (C269Y/V360L/V607I), detected in one experiment at 80 µM, conferred a 6.8-fold IC₅₀ shift with respect to the WT. Molecular dynamics simulations confirmed that the double mutant V360L/V607I impacts the binding mode of sofosbuvir, supporting its role in sofosbuvir resistance. Due to the distance from the catalytic site and to the lack of reliable structural data, the contribution of C269Y was not investigated in silico. By a combination of sequence analysis, phenotypic susceptibility testing, and molecular modeling, we characterized a double ZIKV NS5 mutant with decreased sofosbuvir susceptibility. These data add important information to the profile of sofosbuvir as a possible lead for anti-ZIKV drug development.     

宁夏宁东供水工程主机设备形式参数选择与国际招标

宁东供水工程供水水泵共有卧式和立式离心泵2种方案可供选择,也是工程论证时争论的焦点,经综合比较及主机设备的国际招标,最终确定了奥地利安德里兹公司的卧式双吸中开式离心泵为宁东供水工程的供水水泵。     

Model Selection for Unsupervised Learning of Visual Context

This study addresses the problem of choosing the most suitable probabilistic model selection criterion for unsupervised learning of visual context of a dynamic scene using mixture models. A rectified Bayesian Information Criterion (BICr) and a Completed Likelihood Akaike’s Information Criterion (CL-AIC) are formulated to estimate the optimal model order (complexity) for a given visual scene. Both criteria are designed to overcome poor model selection by existing popular criteria when the data sample size varies from small to large and the true mixture distribution kernel functions differ from the assumed ones. Extensive experiments on learning visual context for dynamic scene modelling are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of BICr and CL-AIC, compared to that of existing popular model selection criteria including BIC, AIC and Integrated Completed Likelihood (ICL). Our study suggests that for learning visual context using a mixture model, BICr is the most appropriate criterion given sparse data, while CL-AIC should be chosen given moderate or large data sample sizes.