电力系统风险评估方法和应用实例研究

介绍一种新的可用于电力系统规划、设计、运行及维护领域风险评估的方法。该方法强调工程应用,探讨电力系统的实际问题。根据规划、运行、维修和资产管理方面的不同要求,发展特定的概念、针对性的方法和实施步骤,如提出元件老化失效模型、共因停运的分离模型及元件组停运模型等新概念。通过对加拿大某城市电力系统扩建规划实例的分析,说明如何进行具体工程的可靠性概率评估,以达到资源的最佳配置,使系统风险保持在目标水平。     

连续Archimedean t-模T的积分-加法生成元

文中提出的关于t-模T的研究,是近年来概率度量理论研究的一个中心问题。在文献[1]和[2]的基础上,通过引入积分-加法生成元,对概率赋范线性空间(E,)H,T)中连续Archimedeant-模T进行了进一步的讨论,得到了T1≤T2的一个新的充分必要条件,并由此获得了找出比已知t-模T1要大或要小的T2的新方法。     

强连续C-半群的概率型估计

讨论了指数有界的C-半群的逼近问题，应用适当的随机变量的矩生成函数估计式，建立了Banach空间上C-半群概率表示的渐近公式，推广了C0半群的一些结果，如：Hille指数公式及Post-Widder反演公式等．     

基于可靠度的土坡最危险滑面分析

用算例证明了概率危险面与定值危险面并不一致。提出了2种方便实用的概率分析方法，即基于定值安全系数程序的组合参数搜索法和在Excel中运用的矩阵公式法。经过比较认为组合参数搜索法虽是近似的，但比传统的定值法更接近矩阵公式法得到的概率危险面，2种方法均可用于工程实践中土坡稳定性的概率分析与评价。     

Probabilistic approach in high-cycle multiaxial fatigue: volume and surface effects

The stress gradient and the size of a component are known to influence the fatigue strength of metallic components. Indeed, in high‐cycle fatigue, experiments prove that the stress distribution as well as the size of the loaded specimen can be responsible for changes in the fatigue limit (for instance, the fatigue limits in tension and bending are different, and decrease with the size of the specimen). When dealing with multiaxial load conditions, those effects still act but a relevant criterion must be used to account for the complex state of stress. The weakest‐link concept together with a multiaxial endurance criterion based on a microplasticity analysis are then combined to describe the fatigue limit distribution of different metallic materials. Several load conditions are analysed: tension–compression, torsion, rotating bending and plane bending. By means of the proposed model, all the known effects on fatigue strength can be reflected. First, the endurance probability can be adequately predicted for any complex load conditions knowing some reference data from uniaxial fatigue tests. It can be linked to the probability of finding a defect with a critical size. The weakest‐link theory also accounts for the decrease of multiaxial fatigue limit with the stressed volume. For the same load condition (i.e. for the same stress distribution in the volume), the probability of finding a critical defect increases with the component size and then according to the weakest‐link theory the fatigue strength drops. A second model, based only on the damage developed at the surface, is also proposed. While the original Weibull theory makes no distinction between potential initiation sites at the free surface and in the volume and can lead to unsatisfactory predictions when applied to materials containing defects such as nodular cast iron, the new surface approach distinguishes between surface and volume effects.     

Reliability Based Design Optimization Using Design Explorer

Experimental design methods can be applied to engineering design activities to understand which variables affect the system under consideration, how these variables affect the system, and how to select variable settings that will give uniformly long life to the system. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the use of Design and Analysis of Computer Experiment (DACE) methods (Sacks, J. et al., 1989) and design optimization via the Surrogate Management Framework (Booker, A. J. et al., 1999; Audet, C. et al., 2000) on reliability optimization problems. Reliabilities are calculated using the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (Palle Thoft–Christensen and Baker, 1982; Achintya Haldar and Sankaran Mahadevan, 2000), a method for estimation of reliabilities and reliability indices for a structural model given probability distributions for design variables and “environmental” variables such as loads. By maximizing reliability, or minimizing the probability of failure, we attempt to achieve a minimum cost design that is affected minimally by the variability in the design variables.     

Blind colour separation of H&E stained histological images by linearly transforming the colour space

Blind source separation methods aim to split information into the original sources. In histology, each dye component attempts to specifically characterize different microscopic structures. In the case of the hematoxylin–eosin stain, universally used for routine examination, quantitative analysis may often require the inspection of different morphological signatures related mainly to nuclei patterns, but also to stroma distribution. Stain separation is usually a preprocessing operation that is transversal to different applications. This paper presents a novel colour separation method that finds the hematoxylin and eosin clusters by projecting the whole space to a folded surface connecting the distributions of a series of planes that divide the cloud of H&E tones. The proposed method produces density maps closer to those obtained with the colour mixing matrices set by an expert, when comparing with the density maps obtained using nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), independent component analysis (ICA) and a state‐of‐the‐art method. The method has outperformed three baseline methods, NMF, Macenko and ICA, in about 8%, 12% and 52% for the eosin component, whereas this was about 4%, 8% and 26% for the hematoxylin component.     

核电厂内部水淹概率风险分析

福岛核事故后,外部灾害事件对核电厂安全的影响逐渐受到重视,而核电厂内部水淹是常见的一种重要灾害,可能导致核电厂发生严重事故,通常无法通过外部事件筛选分析筛除,需对此进行定量评估。本文在对核电厂水淹概率风险分析方法进行了大量研究的基础上,探讨了发生水淹对核电厂设计和运行的影响,提出了内部水淹风险的贡献项。结果表明：电气厂房和设备冷却水系统分别是对内部水淹导致的堆芯损坏频率贡献最大的厂房和水淹源,需在相关区域适当增加水淹防护措施并加强水淹探测及报警能力。     

基于双概率神经网络的纹理图像识别

为提高纹理识别速度,在文献1纹理图像识别正确率较高的基础上,提出一种基于双概率神经网络（DPNN）的纹理图像识别方法。首先构造两个概率神经网络A和B,如果纹理特征明显,以较少的纹理特征能量特征作为网络A的输入参数即可识别,否则再加入统计特征和能量特征一起作为概率神经网络B的输入参数以达到较高的识别率。实验结果表明：采用双概率神经网络的纹理图像识别较文献1有更快的识别速度。     

一种基于局部连通性的增强型车载网多跳广播协议

在车载网中,许多应用都依赖于可靠高效的消息广播。由于无线信道共享介质的特性,消息广播不得不面临广播风暴问题。概率广播是一类能抑制广播风暴的简单有效的方法,然而车载网中除DV-CAST以外的概率广播协议均未考虑稀疏节点场景下的网络分割问题。在分析和验证DV-CAST协议固有缺点的基础上,借鉴其利用局部连通性进行转发决策的思想,提出了一种基于局部连通性的增强型多跳广播协议。实验表明,提出的协议能在稠密节点及稀疏节点场景中均取得较好的可靠性并具有较低开销。