Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety

The engineering and management of human safety is an important societal objective that includes extensive efforts by governments, both legislative and administrative, to enhance the health and safety of the public. Although the achievement of safety goals depend primarily on individuals and organizations responsible for safety, much support is drawn from expertise in diverse scientific and engineering disciplines. The activities range from structural safety (dams, tunnels, bridges to tall buildings) to safe operation of hazardous industrial installations (energy generation facilities, LNG terminals, petrochemical plants) to transportation systems (airline, rail, car safety) to technologies designed to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. All these activities are crucially concerned with risk: with the likelihood and the probable effects of various measures on life and health. We have developed a unified rationale and a clear basis for effective strategic management of risk across diverse sectors. Safety is an important objective in society but it is not the only one. The allocation of society's resources devoted to safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that can be expended to extend life. The paper presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. The paper provides an intuitive reformulation of the LQI as equivalent to a valid utility function that is consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is further refined to consider the issues of discounting of life years, competing background risks, and population age and mortality distribution. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay, which is an acceptable level of public expenditure in exchange for a reduction in the risk of death that results in improved life-quality.     

Thermomechanical stress fields in high-temperature fibrous composites. I: Unidirectional laminates

This two-part paper presents a closed-form procedure for evaluation of estimates of local thermomechanical stress fields in two-phase fibrous composites and laminates. The first part is concerned with a unidirectional elastic laminate subjected to uniform mechanical loads and to uniform changes in temperature. Both phases are assumed to be elastic, with temperature-dependent moduli and expansion coefficients; the solution reflects the influence of thermomechanical interactions. Exact solutions are not possible for any real system, because the local geometry is not known in detail. Instead, estimates of the fields are found from a modified Mori-Tanaka approximation. Examples are presented for two SiC/Ti---Al---Nb composites. Local stresses of interest are found after cooling from fabrication to room temperature. The presence of local yielding, and the influence of coupling terms on the local stress magnitudes are examined. Extension of the results to laminated plates is presented in Part II (Dvorak, G.J., Chen, T. & Teply, J., Composites Science and Technology, 43 (1992) 359–368, this issue).     

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本文采用流动模拟实验方法,以渗透率损害率为评价气层损害的定量标准,对以川东石炭系为主的完井液损害程度及滤失深度进行了试验研究,并对地层损害进行了预测。     

川东地区长兴组缝洞型储层的识别

本文针对四川东部地区上二叠统长兴组(P_2~2)缝洞型储层的低孔、低渗及非均质性等特点,分析了影响这类储层识别的主要因素,提出了利用现有的地球物理测井手段定性识别储层的指标和定量综合识别储层的方法,这可望提高测试成功率。     

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本文根据四川天然气产能建设多年的实践,分析了产能建设的特点和存在问题,着重强调了当前搞好产能建设应注意的几个问题,供决策和工作参考。     

注水开发油田砂砾岩储层含油饱和度解释模型

本文利用常规测井资料,结合储层岩性、物性、含油性之间的地质规律,解决了储层岩石粒度变化及水淹层混合水电阻率变化对储层电阻率的影响;研究出了一种对电阻率测井资料标准化的校正方法;建立了储层原始、剩余、残余油饱和度解释模型。计算的储层原始、剩余、残余油地质储量,经生产验证相对下误差小于10％;计算产水率,试油验证平均绝对误差小于10％;划分水淹油层等级,试油验证符合率在80％以上。     

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本文提出了凹型压力恢复曲线的一阶导数图版和二阶导数图版。综合使用这两种导数图版,提高了匹配的精度,使匹配结果准确。无量纲起始压力梯度D很难确定。本文提出的两种导数图版综合匹配法能准确确定D值,是致密储层动态评价的有效工具。     

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本文针对天然气井提高钻井速度问题,总结分析了盆地中部井身结构,水力、机械参数,聚合物钻井液,正注反挤固井等工艺技术对该地区钻速的影响。指出提高天然气井钻井速度,必须搞好系统工程,形成配套技术。     

流动微量量热法研究阴离子表面活性剂在油砂表面的吸附

用流动微量量热法研究了十二烷基硫酸钠(SDDS)和十二碳羧酸钠(SL)在克拉玛依油田九区和乌尔禾区油砂上的吸附,简要地计论了吸附机理。所得实验结果表明,SL 在油砂上的吸附强度比 SDDS 的要大,在相当低的浓度下即可迟到饱和吸附。