Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: A case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support

Bayesian inference provides a formal framework for assessing the odds of hypotheses in light of evidence. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to a wide range of diagnostic challenges in the field of chance discovery, including the problem of disputed authorship that arises in electronic commerce, counter-terrorism and other forensic applications. For example, when two documents are so similar that one is likely to be a hoax written from the other, the question is: Which document is most likely the source and which document is most likely the hoax? Here I review a Bayesian study of disputed authorship performed by a biblical scholar, and I show that the scholar makes critical errors with respect to several issues, namely: Causal Basis, Likelihood Judgment and Conditional Dependency. The scholar’s errors are important because they have a large effect on his conclusions and because similar errors often occur when people, both experts and novices, are faced with the challenges of Bayesian inference. As a practical solution, I introduce a graphical system designed to help prevent the observed errors. I discuss how this decision support system applies more generally to any problem of Bayesian inference, and how it differs from the graphical models of Bayesian Networks.     

东津水电站引水隧洞进口不良地质段施工

东津水电站引水隧洞进口段工程地质条件恶劣，施工干扰大，渡汛工期紧。采用喷锚支护洞脸边坡，洞口明挖３ｍ浇筑钢筋混凝土明拱和Ｌ形护坡墙；洞身段采用新奥法施工，先打通上导洞；进口４０ｍ分段开挖，分段衬砌；进水塔压板混凝土模板采用门字框架钢支撑；排除了施工干扰，防止了洞口滑塌，进口段塌方的恶性事故发生，保证了引水隧洞工程的顺利施工。     

A priori ordering protocols to support consensus-building in multiple stakeholder contexts

In a complex social, political, economic, technological, and/or environmental context, corporate, military, government, and other organizations are often faced with collective decision-making situations. The rationale for group decision exercises is that the judgment of many will usually prove superior to the judgment of one. However, it has been shown that collective decision exercises are often highly dependent on matters of perspective, values and opinion, all of which - being essentially subjective in nature - are beyond the reach of existing formal decision technology. Furthermore, it can be expected that many collective decision exercises - particularly those of strategic import - will not lend themselves to the quantitative analysis instruments that have long dominated the management and decision science repertoire. This does not, however, mean that they must remain entirely and forever outside the bounds of scientific rationality. The ordering protocols which are currently available do not have enough technical mechanics to be relied upon to bring us to any satisfying resolution of a priori disputation. Hence, we propose an a priori ordering reference model that might support consensus-building in a multiple stakeholders context. In order to detect whether the subjective arguments are products of proper reasons or merely instances of raw rhetoric and to suggest how any logical or syntactical flaws might best be repaired, we propose logical ordering facilities and protocols for integrating procedural and instrumental provisions for a group-decision process with two lines of technical innovation: the superimpositional ordering function and the logical ordering support facilities.     

智能支持的LC-QDPDS集成模型关键技术应用研究

质量驱动产品设计(QDPD)是一种产品设计新思想，在分析QDPD国内外研究现状的基础上，建立了智能支持的基于全生命周期质量驱动产品设计系统(LC-QDPDS)的集成模型，详细论述了LC-QDPDS集成模型的五大重要组成模块及其实现的关键技术，并将其应用于仪表新产品开发决策支持系统中。     

甲醇气相氧化羰化合成碳酸二甲酯 Ⅲ.复合载体铜基催化剂的表征

采用X射线衍射、表面物理吸附、CO原位吸附红外光谱、X射线光电子能谱以及热重分析方法对甲醇直接气相氧化羰化合成碳酸二甲酯的复合载体铜基催化剂(Cu(Ⅱ)/Naβ-AC)的物化性能进行了表征。实验结果表明,微波辐射条件下制备的Cu(Ⅱ)/Naβ-AC催化剂中,活性组分CuC l2一方面与分子筛载体间发生了固相离子交换反应,并形成了铜分子筛物种,另一方面,可直接高度分散在复合载体表面。反应后Cu(Ⅱ)/Naβ-AC催化剂中部分Cu2+被还原为Cu+或Cu0,Cu2+的结合能峰向低结合能方向迁移,但微波辐射处理并未破坏分子筛载体的骨架结构。采用复合载体增加了催化剂的比表面积,并产生一定量的微孔,从而提高了催化剂的氧化羰化反应活性。热重分析表明,当温度低于350℃时,Cu(Ⅱ)/Naβ-AC催化剂稳定性较好。     

超高、大跨度混凝土结构模板施工

本文通过工程实例,详细介绍了超高、大跨度混凝土结构模板及支撑施工工艺。     

军事地理信息系统的现状与发展

在信息作战条件下，军事地理信息系统（MGIS）作为作战指挥自动化、数字化战场和现代武器系统的战场地理环境平台备受世界各国的重视。美国投入了大量人力、物力和财力先后研制并使用了地形分析系统等一系列应用系统，目前正着手研制地理影像情报综合管理系统（TPED）和地理影像与地理空间信息系统。我国的MGIS起步较晚，但发展很快，已成功地研制出了第一个具有自主版权的MGIS工具软件。该软件采用层次化体系结构和面向对象的设计方法，具有功能齐全、结构紧密、安全性好等特点。文章在分析国内外MGIS的基础上，着重介绍了军事地理信息系统软件的研制特点，并对军事地理信息系统进一步发展要解决的若干问题进行了探讨。     

Negotiation support systems: roots, progress and needs

Abstract. This paper identifies game theories and social behavior science as important roots for negotiation support systems (NSS) research. As these are not typically cited in the NSS literature, summary reviews of them are provided with indications of their relevance to NSS study. On the other hand, neither offers a sufficiently general-purpose formal model of negotiation that could serve as a backbone for NSS research. A survey of that research is provided, indicating that prugress to date has been somewhat eclectic and devoid of such a model. Our central contention is that a theoretical foundation for NSS study is much needed. Desirable characteristics of a suitable negotiation model are identified as guidance for future research that will aim to devise (and subsequently apply and test) such a model.     

低位放顶煤液压支架的改造

对ZFSB4 0 0 0 / 18.5 / 2 8、ZFG4 4 0 0 / 18.5 / 2 9型液压支架在新集一矿使用中存在的问题进行了分析 ,提出了改进措施。通过改造 ,解决了支架在顶板支护、后溜拉移中存在的问题 ,消除安全隐患 ,为设备检修创造条件。     

Tree-based partitioning of date for association rule mining

The most computationally demanding aspect of Association Rule Mining is the identification and counting of support of the frequent sets of items that occur together sufficiently often to be the basis of potentially interesting rules. The task increases in difficulty with the scale of the data and also with its density. The greatest challenge is posed by data that is too large to be contained in primary memory, especially when high data density and/or low support thresholds give rise to very large numbers of candidates that must be counted. In this paper, we consider strategies for partitioning the data to deal effectively with such cases. We describe a partitioning approach which organises the data into tree structures that can be processed independently. We present experimental results that show the method scales well for increasing dimensions of data and performs significantly better than alternatives, especially when dealing with dense data and low support thresholds. Shakil Ahmed received a first class BSc (Hons) degree from Dhaka University, Bangladesh, in 1990; and an MSc (first class), also Dhaka University, in 1992. He received his PhD from The University of Liverpool, UK, in 2005. From 2000 onwards he is a member of the Data Mining Group at the Department of Computer Science of the University of Liverpool, UK. His research interests include data mining, Association Rule Mining and pattern recognition. Frans Coenen has been working in the field of Data Mining for many years and has written widely on the subject. He received his PhD from Liverpool Polytechnic in 1989, after which he took up a post as a RA within the Department of Computer Science at the University of Liverpool. In 1997, he took up a lecturing post within the same department. His current Data Mining research interests include Association rule Mining, Classification algorithms and text mining. He is on the programme committee for ICDM'05 and was the chair for the UK KDD symposium (UKKDD'05). Paul Leng is professor of e-Learning at the University of Liverpool and director of the e-Learning Unit, which is responsible for overseeing the University's online degree programmes, leading to degrees of MSc in IT and MBA. Along with e-Learning, his main research interests are in Data Mining, especially in methods of discovering Association Rules. In collaboration with Frans Coenen, he has developed efficient new algorithms for finding frequent sets and is exploring applications in text mining and classification.