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南水北调东线工程输水系统运行风险研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
南水北调东线工程输水系统涉及堤防漫堤、渗透和失稳三种失事模式。分析了输水系统的风险机制,识别出系统的风险来自外来荷载、内部结构、运行管理等三方面,参考我国大坝安全评价和堤防工程设计规范等,建立了风险评价基准。采用层次-模糊分析法计算了输水河道运行综合风险概率;以河段长度为参数,通过聚类分析,得出了输水河道失事后果等级。在此基础上,根据风险评价基准,算出了各输水河道的风险等级。结果表明:高水河风险为低,中运河、胶东输水干线风险为中等,里运河等8段输水河道风险为较低。 相似文献
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Abstract A reasonable knowledge of rock's physical and mechanical properties could save the cost of drilling and production of a reservoir to a large extent by selection of proper operating parameters. In addition, a master development plan (MDP) for each oilfield may contain many enhanced oil recovery procedures that take advantage of rock mechanical data and principles. Thus, an integrated rock mechanical study can be considered an investment in field development. The unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of rocks is the important rock mechanical parameter and plays a crucial role when drilling an oil or gas well. A drilling operation is an interaction between the rock and the bit and the rock will fail when the resultant stress is greater than the rock strength. UCS is actually the stress level at which rock is broken down when it is under a uniaxial stress. It can be used for bit selection, real-time wellbore stability analysis, estimation an optimized time for pulling up the bit, design of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) procedures, and reservoir subsidence studies. Rock strength can be estimated along a drilled wellbore using different approaches, including laboratory tests, core–log relationships, and penetration model approaches. Although this rock strength profile can be used for future investigation of formations around the wellbore, they are actually dead information. Dead rock strength data may not be useful for designing a well in a blind location (infill drilling). Rock strength should be predicted prior to drilling operations. These sort of data are helpful in proposing a drilling program for a new well. In this research, new equations for estimation of rock strength in Ahwaz oilfield are formulated based on statistical analysis. Then, they are utilized for estimation of the rock strength profile of 36 wells in a Middle Eastern oilfield. An artificial neural network is then utilized for prediction of UCS in any predefined well trajectory. Cross-validation tests showed that the results of the network were compatible with reality. This approach has proven to be useful for estimation of any designed well trajectory prior to drilling. 相似文献
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Abstract An increase in world energy demand forces oil and gas companies to drill deeper in order to produce more oil and gas. This requires drilling layers with various characteristics and results in drilling problems as drilling progresses. Lost circulation and stuck pipes are the most common drilling problems, which are always challenging. Mechanical pipe sticking is likely to occur after complete loss. Time that is spent dealing with such problems is called nonproductive time. It is also defined as time during which drilling is ceased or the penetration rate is very low. This definition includes consequences of lost circulation. Lost circulation is likely to take place throughout drilling operations and even during primary cementing due to direct contact of the drilling fluid with the formation along with severe pressure pulses due to pipe movement or onset of circulation after connection, which sometimes goes over hundreds of psi. Lost circulation results in a loss of money, especially when severe losses are experienced. Partial mud loss, or even complete mud loss, can occur in low fluxes, which can lead to well blowout or severe pipe sticking. Freeing the pipes may involve a week or even more time from the rig. Thus, accurate information on returned fluid and recording mud loss rate can help prevent drilling problems. A recent solution to dealing with lost circulation is an underbalanced drilling technique, although this is not applicable in some countries due to lack of technology or great expenses. Thus, prediction of loss severity can bring the opportunity of decision making true for adjusting drilling fluid content and operational parameters. Several factors while drilling will govern how severe mud loss would occur. These make analytical modeling of lost circulation complicated. Employing artificial intelligence can be a leeway with proven capability and accuracy. In this article, the operational parameters in a Middle Eastern oilfield are used for prediction of the mud loss severity along different sectors of the oilfield. Cross-validation showed fairly good compatibility with reality. 相似文献
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东秦岭-大别造山带中新生代伸展-走滑关联断裂体系控制的中新生代盆地与大别地区变质核杂岩组成了完整的伸展拆离体系。盆地沿北西西与北东向基底断裂带分布特征、盆地沉降方向的转变过程以及与造山带北侧前陆盆地体系的时空分布关系,均揭示盆地群的发育经历了造山挤压与区域伸展2个发育阶段。它与东秦岭-大别造山带由挤压到造山后伸展的演化过程具有同步特点。综合造山带深部地球物理特征、造山后期"气球膨胀式"花岗质杂岩的发育过程,推断造山带上叠伸展盆地具有区域伸展与造山带深部调整双重体制动力。盆地群的形成是东秦岭-大别造山带陆内俯冲、松弛与区域伸展共同控制形成的产物。 相似文献
47.
从我国东部几个典型的第三系含油气盆地石油地质演化出发,将盆地石油地质演化过程分为整体下降、整体上升和整体调整3个阶段。盆地整体下降阶段是物质积累过程和能量储备过程,亦即是油气形成过程;盆地整体上升阶段是能量释放,即油气成藏过程;盆地调整阶段是能量调整、物质补偿和综合平衡的过程。通过对盆地内各凹陷在上述不同演化阶段的特征分析,对比了东部各富油凹陷(盆地)石油地质演化的差异性。总结我国东部各富油凹陷油气富集的主要控制因素,认为地层发育系列完整,沉积规模和剥蚀量适中的盆地含油气性最好。 相似文献
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东海西湖凹陷平湖组Ⅲ型干酪根暗色泥岩生排烃模拟 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
为更真实地刻画烃源岩生排烃过程及为油气资源定量评价提供合理的关键参数,对东海陆架盆地西湖凹陷始新统平湖组Ⅲ型干酪根暗色泥岩开展了半开放体系下热压生排烃模拟实验研究。模拟结果显示,该暗色泥岩的生排烃过程主要包括初期缓慢生油阶段(Ro=0.5%~0.7%)、早期快速生排油阶段(Ro=0.7%~1.0%)、中期油裂解气阶段(Ro=1.0%~1.5%)、后期主生气阶段(Ro=1.5%~2.3%)及晚期生干气阶段(Ro>2.3%)。该烃源岩的排油门限(Ro)约为0.7%,其生气范围较宽(Ro=1.0%~3.0%),且在高—过热演化阶段仍具备较强的生气能力,是以生气为主的气源岩。通过对实验结果和样品生排烃特征的研究,建立了一套西湖凹陷平湖组Ⅲ型暗色泥岩生气与生排油过程及潜力评价的数学模型,可用于该区资源量计算。与封闭体系的高温高压黄金管热模拟实验相比,半开放体系下烃源岩热压生排烃模拟实验的累计产油率更高,也更接近实际地质情况,据此评价可使西... 相似文献
50.
X. Cheng D. J. Hou Z. Zhao Y. H. Jiang X. H. Zhou H. Diao 《Journal of Petroleum Geology》2020,43(4):437-451
The Cenozoic Xihu Sag in the East China Sea Shelf Basin contains large reserves of coals together with liquid petroleum derived from coal-associated sediments. However, the origin of the petroleum is not well understood. In this study, biomarker assemblages in a suite of recently discovered light oils and condensates from the Paleogene succession in the western margin of in the Xihu Sag were investigated using gas chromatography – mass spectrometry. The objectives were to investigate the samples' thermal maturity and the depositional environment of the precursor source rocks which generated the oils. The light oils are believed to have been derived from coaly source rocks in the Eocene Pinghu Formation. Assessment of thermal maturity based on CPI, pristane/n-C17 ratio and isomerisation ratios of C29 steranes and C31 homohopanes suggest that the hydrocarbons have a relatively low maturity in the early to mid oil generation window. The distribution of isoprenoids relative to n-alkanes, the high pristane/phytane ratios (5.1–10.7), the almost complete absence of gammacerane and C33+ homohopanes, and the low dibenzothiophene/phenanthrene ratios indicate that the source rocks of the hydrocarbons were deposited in a relatively oxic and sulphate-poor fluvio-deltaic environment which was favourable for coal measure development. Abnormally abundant gymnosperm-derived diterpanes including labdane, 19-norisopimarane, fichtelite, rimuane, pimarane, isopimarane, 17-nortetracyclic diterpene, phyllocladanes and abietane were detected in the samples analysed. 16a(H)-Phyllocladane was identified unambiguously and kauranes were confirmed to be absent. In addition, three 19-norisopimarane isomers, 13β(H)-atisane, and 20-normethylatisane were tentatively identified in the studied samples. The distributions of n-alkanes, isoprenoids and regular steranes, the presence of 4β(H)-eudesmane and oleanane, high Pr/Ph ratios and the abundant diterpanes together suggest that the hydrocarbons were derived from a coaly source rock. Gymnosperms of the conifer families Cupressaceae (especially the former Taxodiaceae) and Pinaceae are interpreted to be the major source of the diterpanes and to have made a significant contribution to the coaly source rock. However, the low abundance of oleanane relative to diterpanes may underestimate the contribution from angiosperms relative to gymnosperms. This could be due to differential preservation and alteration of the di- and triterpenoid precursors during diagenesis and the occurrence of non-specific precursors in higher land plants. 相似文献