A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050

In this article, a model for estimating bioenergy production potentials in 2050, called the Quickscan model, is presented. In addition, a review of existing studies is carried out, using results from the Quickscan model as a starting point. The Quickscan model uses a bottom-up approach and its development is based on an evaluation of data and studies on relevant factors such as population growth, per capita food consumption and the efficiency of food production. Three types of biomass energy sources are included: dedicated bioenergy crops, agricultural and forestry residues and waste, and forest growth. The bioenergy potential in a region is limited by various factors, such as the demand for food, industrial roundwood, traditional woodfuel, and the need to maintain existing forests for the protection of biodiversity. Special attention is given to the technical potential to reduce the area of land needed for food production by increasing the efficiency of food production. Thus, only the surplus area of agricultural land is included as a source for bioenergy crop production. A reference scenario was composed to analyze the demand for food. Four levels of advancement of agricultural technology in the year 2050 were assumed that vary with respect to the efficiency of food production. Results indicated that the application of very efficient agricultural systems combined with the geographic optimization of land use patterns could reduce the area of land needed to cover the global food demand in 2050 by as much as 72% of the present area. A key factor was the area of land suitable for crop production, but that is presently used for permanent grazing. Another key factor is the efficiency of the production of animal products. The bioenergy potential on surplus agricultural land (i.e. land not needed for the production of food and feed) equaled 215–1272 EJ yr⁻¹, depending on the level of advancement of agricultural technology. The bulk of this potential is found in South America and Caribbean (47–221 EJ yr⁻¹), sub-Saharan Africa (31–317 EJ yr⁻¹) and the C.I.S. and Baltic States (45–199 EJ yr⁻¹). Also Oceania and North America had considerable potentials: 20–174 and 38–102 EJ yr⁻¹, respectively. However, realization of these (technical) potentials requires significant increases in the efficiency of food production, whereby the most robust potential is found in the C.I.S. and Baltic States and East Europe. Existing scenario studies indicated that such increases in productivity may be unrealistically high, although these studies generally excluded the impact of large scale bioenergy crop production. The global potential of bioenergy production from agricultural and forestry residues and wastes was calculated to be 76–96 EJ yr⁻¹ in the year 2050. The potential of bioenergy production from surplus forest growth (forest growth not required for the production of industrial roundwood and traditional woodfuel) was calculated to be 74 EJ yr⁻¹ in the year 2050.     

Estimating Land Use Impacts on Regional Scale Urban Water Balance and Groundwater Recharge

Anthropogenic activities have exerted increasingly large-scale influences on terrestrial ecological systems from the past century, primarily through agriculture; however, the impact of such changes on the hydrologic cycle is poorly understood. As one of the important land use (LU) in the coastal Dogo Plain of the Seto Inland Sea, Japan, paddy fields have been decreasing with the increase in urbanization in recent decades. As the main source of water in the Dogo Plain, groundwater plays an important role in providing people with fresh water and contributing to stream base flow. The purpose of this study is to analyze the water resource and evaluate the effect of LU change on groundwater table fluctuation in this coastal plain. Firstly, the observations of groundwater table and the investigation of water balance were carried out in this alluvial plain. Then, a distributed four-block three-layer water balance model was employed to analyze the groundwater table fluctuation with response to the change of paddy field area. Moreover, the role of paddy field in recharging groundwater in the basin has been clarified. Results show that groundwater table depends not only on rainfall and discharge from rivers, but also on irrigation water and topology of the study area. The net groundwater recharge was positive in irrigation periods whereas that in non-irrigation periods was nearly equal to zero or negative. The results of this study would be helpful to the urban development policy and land use planning decision.     

Hydrogeographical Regionalisation: An Approach for Evaluating the Effects of Land Cover Change in Watersheds. A Case Study in the Cuitzeo Lake Watershed, Central Mexico

Efficient natural resources management, including continental water at watershed level, requires understanding the arrangement of landscape attributes in a region. The geographical analysis of landscape attributes is a useful approach to delineate relatively homogeneous watersheds or regions. This research was carried out in order to evaluate the effect of land cover through time on regionalisation modelling in the poorly-gauged Cuitzeo Lake Watershed, and to develop models to create two hydrogeographical regionalisations for the years 1975 and 2000. The inputs required by the regionalisation methodology were integrated in a GIS and validated before carrying out statistical regionalisation procedures (cluster analysis and PCA). GIS operations were done in Arc View 3.2 and statistical analyses in PC-ORD. Median Euclidean distances with mean distance linkage methods were used. A 75% of similarity was chosen as the threshold to generate regions. Importance rankings of regions were obtained using multicriteria evaluation methods. Based on the analysis, 38 of the 52 subwatersheds belonging to the Cuitzeo Lake Watershed were clustered; eight groups were defined in 1975 and nine in 2000. According to PCA, the strongest positive variables are associated to morphometric, geologic, land cover and soil attributes. Fourteen subwatersheds were never clustered. Four subwatersheds changed of cluster between 1975 and 2000. This change is explained because of rainfed agricultural parcel abandonment, and subsequent shrubland growth. This means that the hydrogeographical regionalisation is sensitive to land cover change processes. The methodological approach applied in this research is a low-cost and fast alternative for evaluating the impact of land cover and land use change on hydrogeographical regionalisation; in consequence, data and information generated during the analysis were made available to local authorities so that they can improve both water resources planning and their informational baseline for decision making and for development of environmental policies in the Cuitzeo Lake Watershed.     

应用级差地租原理 管好企业土地资产

建立独立工矿区的企业,都有一笔特殊的固定资本-土地资产．然而,土地资产不同于企业的其它资产,它不但不随时间的推移而逐渐折旧损失,反而因时间的推移而不断的增值．应用马克思关于级差地租原理,剖析了土地资产的增值性和引发增值的原困,论述了企业土地资产和级差地租II的关系,提出了在市场经济条件下企业应用级差地租原理管好用好土地资产的基本原则和具体方法。     

理性增长十周年回顾及展望——以美国马里兰州为例

2007年10月在美国马里兰州举办了理性增长十周年（Smart Growth@10）会议。本文在回顾马里兰州理性增长十年发展历程基础上,严格审查马里兰州理性增长运动的实践成效,具体包括理性增长在土地利用变更、社区复兴、住宅偏好及选择、耕地保护、基础设施建设等领域所取得的成就和存在的不足,并总结了未来马里兰州理性增长运动进一步完善的政策建议,希望美国马里兰州的理性增长实践能够为中国未来城市规划、发展和管理的改革创新提供借鉴和启示．     

The territorial and landscape impacts of photovoltaic systems: Definition of impacts and assessment of the glare risk

The installation and operation of systems that exploit solar energy through photovoltaic conversion, recently promoted in some European countries by new sell-back tariffs, is a relevant transformation of the territory for various reasons (land use, elimination of the existing vegetation, visual impact on the components of the landscape, microclimate change, glare from the reflection of the direct sunlight). The weak energy intensity of the solar source coupled with the low conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic cells, make the physical dimensions of such systems relevant and, with them, also the environmental, territorial and landscape impacts that basically depend on the physical extent of the system. If it is well known that an incentive to the exploitation of renewable sources is one of the features of the policy of land conservation, including the one of the protected areas, at the same time the concerns of local communities and governments about the environmental, territorial and landscape impacts of this technology are increasing rapidly.Given this picture, this work is intended to clarify the territorial impacts of the ground mounted photovoltaic systems. Later, the paper concentrates on a specific impact, which is the assessment of the risk of glare by reflection of direct sunlight from the surfaces of photovoltaic modules. The methodologies that can be used to assess this impact and the outcomes of an evaluation carried out for a 5000 m² PV system currently designed on a hilly territory in Italy are presented.     

A comparison of historical land-use change patterns and recommendations for flood plain developments in three delta regions in Southeast Asia

Historical land-cover changes in three delta regions in Southeast Asia are assessed by using selected Landsat images from 1990 to 2005. Potential inundation areas of the delta regions for different return periods are estimated by using digital elevation model data and extreme-value distribution of annual maximum river discharges. The results indicate significant changes of natural land cover within the potential inundation areas due to agricultural exploitation and industrialization. Implications for flood-mitigation policies are discussed. There is a clear need for sustainable land-use management strategies in all three areas.     

新疆吉木萨尔县基本农田整治项目经济效益分析

结合新疆吉木萨尔县基本农田整治项目区的实际情况,采用盈亏分析法对整治项目进行了经济效益分析,结果:整治后新增耕地12.70 hm~2,项目区的年总纯收入提高465.71万元,静态投资收益率达到37.58%,经济效益较显著。     

灌阳县新街乡土地整治项目土地平整设计

根据灌阳县新街乡土地整治项目的基本情况,介绍了土地平整思路、设计原则及要点,总结经验,指出土地平整中应注意的一些问题,为类似工程的设计提供参考。