Hybrid Approach for Addressing Uncertainty in Risk Assessments

Parameter uncertainty is a major aspect of the model-based estimation of the risk of human exposure to pollutants. The Monte Carlo method, which applies probability theory to address model parameter uncertainty, relies on a statistical representation of available information. In recent years, other uncertainty theories have been proposed as alternative approaches to address model parameter uncertainty in situations where available information is insufficient to identify statistically representative probability distributions, due in particular to data scarcity. The simplest such theory is possibility theory, which uses so-called fuzzy numbers to represent model parameter uncertainty. In practice, it may occur that certain model parameters can be reasonably represented by probability distributions, because there are sufficient data available to substantiate such distributions by statistical analysis, while others are better represented by fuzzy numbers (due to data scarcity). The question then arises as to how these two modes of representation of model parameter uncertainty can be combined for the purpose of estimating the risk of exposure. This paper proposes an approach (termed a hybrid approach) which combines Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with fuzzy calculus. The approach is applied to a real case of estimation of human exposure, via vegetable consumption, to cadmium present in the surficial soils of an industrial site located in the north of France. The application illustrates the potential of the proposed approach, which allows the uncertainty affecting model parameters to be represented in a way that is consistent with the information at hand. Also, because the hybrid approach takes advantage of the “rich” information provided by probability distributions, while retaining the conservative character of fuzzy calculus, it is believed to hold value in terms of a “reasonable” application of the precautionary principle.     

Safe and effective navigation of autonomous robots in hazardous environments

The development of autonomous mobile machines to perform useful tasks in real work environments is currently being impeded by concerns over effectiveness, commercial viability and, above all, safety. This paper introduces a case study of a robotic excavator to explore a series of issues around system development, navigation in unstructured environments, autonomous decision making and changing the behaviour of autonomous machines to suit the prevailing demands of users. The adoption of the Real-Time Control Systems (RCS) architecture (Albus, 1991) is proposed as a universal framework for the development of intelligent systems. In addition it is explained how the use of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) (Kaelbling et al., 1998) can form the basis of decision making in the face of uncertainty and how the technique can be effectively incorporated into the RCS architecture. Particular emphasis is placed on ensuring that the resulting behaviour is both task effective and adequately safe, and it is recognised that these two objectives may be in opposition and that the desired relative balance between them may change. The concept of an autonomous system having “values” is introduced through the use of utility theory. Limited simulation results of experiments are reported which demonstrate that these techniques can create intelligent systems capable of modifying their behaviour to exhibit either ‘safety conscious’ or ‘task achieving’ personalities.     

Economic Model to Optimize Underground Utility Protection

The need for better protecting our vital infrastructure from being damaged or destroyed has received increased attention since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The tragedy of having thousands of innocent people die before the eyes of an entire nation awakened people to the reality of “managed” attacks of unthinkable magnitudes. However, tragedies of a smaller scale are a daily occurrence but accepted as “collateral damage” of work in an unsafe environment. This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis to address the question of how much money should be spent in protecting underground utilities from damage. During the study of an actual incident it was found that the total costs of such accidents are vastly underreported because only costs for emergency responses and repair are tallied up. This paper makes the case that a comprehensive approach for assessing the total economic impact of such incidents on the public, business, and government is the critical stepping stone to a mathematical optimization of expenditure for damage prevention. In addition, the reader will quickly realize that the use of the presented optimization model provides theoretical underpinning for the engineering profession in its effort to better protect our critical infrastructure from terrorist attacks.     

Uncertainty of Predictions of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters

Risk assessment studies considering the failure of embankment dams often require the prediction of basic geometric and temporal parameters of a breach, or the estimation of peak breach outflows. Many of the relations most commonly used to make these predictions were developed from statistical analyses of data collected from historic dam failures. The prediction uncertainties of these methods are widely recognized to be very large, but have never been specifically quantified. This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty of many of these breach parameter and peak flow prediction methods. Application of the methods and the uncertainty analysis are illustrated through a case study of a risk assessment recently performed by the Bureau of Reclamation for a large embankment dam in North Dakota.     

Risk Assessment in Construction

This study is concerned with the assessment of risk for major construction activities. Risk has been defined as a measure of the probability, the severity, and the exposure of all hazards of an activity. A risk assessor model (RAM) was developed and computerized to determine the risk associated with a particular activity and the justification factor for a proposed remedy. Knowing the value of risk would help contractors identify the high risk of major construction activities and would enable them to allocate safety precautions in a more efficient manner.     

核电厂应急计划中若干问题和概念的讨论

本文讨论了我国核电厂应急计划和应急准备中新所关心的若干问题，阐述了应急计划中一些基本概念；弄清这些问题和概念，对推动和恰当地进行应急准备可能是重要的。     

Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety

The engineering and management of human safety is an important societal objective that includes extensive efforts by governments, both legislative and administrative, to enhance the health and safety of the public. Although the achievement of safety goals depend primarily on individuals and organizations responsible for safety, much support is drawn from expertise in diverse scientific and engineering disciplines. The activities range from structural safety (dams, tunnels, bridges to tall buildings) to safe operation of hazardous industrial installations (energy generation facilities, LNG terminals, petrochemical plants) to transportation systems (airline, rail, car safety) to technologies designed to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. All these activities are crucially concerned with risk: with the likelihood and the probable effects of various measures on life and health. We have developed a unified rationale and a clear basis for effective strategic management of risk across diverse sectors. Safety is an important objective in society but it is not the only one. The allocation of society's resources devoted to safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that can be expended to extend life. The paper presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. The paper provides an intuitive reformulation of the LQI as equivalent to a valid utility function that is consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is further refined to consider the issues of discounting of life years, competing background risks, and population age and mortality distribution. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay, which is an acceptable level of public expenditure in exchange for a reduction in the risk of death that results in improved life-quality.     

烯烃聚合工业用有机过氧化物危险性分析及对策研究

有机过氧化物是烯烃聚合工业中重要的引发剂。针对烯烃聚合工业用有机过氧化物自分解温度低、易发生反应失控引发火灾爆炸等情况,简要叙述了有机过氧化物的结构、分类、化学性质以及反应特性,重点对其储存、使用、管理等过程中的危险性进行了分析。提出过氧化物储存、运输、使用、报废等方面的风险消减与事故预防措施。     

Risk Allocation and Risk Handling of Highway Projects in Taiwan

Risks always exist in construction projects and often cause schedule delay or cost overrun. Risk management is a key issue in project management. The first step of risk management is risk identification. It includes the recognition of potential risk event conditions in the project and the clarification of risk responsibilities. We conducted multiple-case studies using a systematic analytical procedure to identify risks in highway projects in Taiwan, to recognize risk allocation by contract clauses, and to analyze the influence of risk allocation on the contractor’s risk handling strategies. The results show that the owner allocates risks by stipulating specific contract clauses into five kinds of risk allocation conditions. If a risk is more controllable by the contractor, the owner has a greater tendency to allocate the risk to the contractor. Risk allocation determines which kinds of risks the contractor would take and influences the contractor’s risk handling decisions. The analysis furthermore indicates that, if the probability of a certain risk event condition is uncontrollable, then with the increasing possibility of taking the risk, the contractor’s tendency of risk handling changes from actively transferring the risk to passively retaining the risk. In contrast, if a risk is controllable and certainly allocated to the contractor, the contractor tends to take the initiative to reduce the impact caused by the risk event rather than retain the risk.     

HSE管理体系认证审核的要点

企业所建立的HSE管理体系已运行多年,大多满足认证的条件,HSE体系认证是体系运行的重要环节,也是体系运行绩效的肯定。审核时要面对大量的体系文件和作业记录,因此把握住审核要点会起到事半功倍的效果。