Risk Concession Model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects

This paper extends the build–operate–transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) to establishing a risk concession model for BOT contract projects. The decision for a concession period is one of the most important decisions in determining a BOT contract. BOTCcM presents an alternative method to assist in determining a concession period that can protect the basic interests of both the investor and the government concerned. However, there is a major limitation in using the model, namely it gives no consideration to the impacts of risks on the estimation of various economic variables in the model. This study considers the risk impacts to the BOTCcM model and presents an additional risk concession model. This model provides an approach for formulating a concession period to consider the impacts of risks and, at the same time, protect the basic interests of both the investor and the government concerned. A hypothetical case is used to show the procedures of formulating the risk concession period through the assistance of the Monte Carlo simulation method.     

A fuzzy data envelopment analysis approach for FMEA

We present a data envelopment analysis approach for determining ranking indices among failure modes in which the typical FMEA parameters are modeled as fuzzy sets. By this approach, inference rules of the IF THEN kind can be bypassed. The proposed approach is applied to a typical PWR auxiliary feedwater system. The results are compared to those obtained by means of: the risk priority numbers, pure fuzzy logic concepts, and finally the DEA-APGF (profiling of severity efficiency) approach. The results demonstrate the potential of the combination of fuzzy logic concepts and data envelopment analysis for this class of problems.     

NAROAS: a neural network-based advanced operator support system for the assessment of systems reliability

We have developed and implemented a computerized reliability monitoring system for nuclear power plant applications, based on a neural network. The developed computer program is a new tool related to operator decision support systems, in case of component failures, for the determination of test and maintenance policies during normal operation or to follow an incident sequence in a nuclear power plant. The NAROAS (Neural Network Advanced Reliability Advisory System) computer system has been developed as a modularized integrated system in a C++ Builder environment, using a Hopfield neural network instead of fault trees, to follow and control the different system configurations, for interventions as quickly as possible at the plant. The observed results are comparable and similar to those of other computer system results. As shown, the application of this neural network contributes to the state of the art of risk monitoring systems by turning it easier to perform online reliability calculations in the context of probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants.     

风险控制模型及仿真分析

对经济主体的主要风险控制方案和损失模型作了研究，给出了风险自留、采取安全防护措施、购买保险转移风险、购买保险同时采取安全防护措施、购买免陪额保险和购买免陪额保险并采取安全防护措施等6种风险控制方案的损失函数和损失效用函数。证明了损失函数为凸函数，存在风险最优控制策略。在此基础上设计了随机仿真过程模型，实例的实际运行表明，随机仿真是可行的。     

如何构筑烟草行业省级信息网络安全防护体系的构筑

对烟草行业信息安全需求进行了分析，并对如何构筑省一级的行业信息安全防护体系从设计思路、目标方法和方案设计方面进行了一定的思考，提出了烟草行业网络与信息安全建设的目标、方法、技术、管理和服务等几大体系的建设思路。     

Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains

This paper proposes a method using probabilistic risk analysis for application to corrosion associated failures in grey cast iron water mains. External corrosion reduces the capacity of the pipeline to resist stresses. When external stresses exceed the residual ultimate strength, pipe breakage becomes imminent, and the overall reliability of a water distribution network is reduced. Modelling stresses and external corrosion acting on a pipe involves uncertainties inherent in the mechanistic/statistical models and their input parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were used to perform the probabilistic analysis. The reduction in the factor of safety (FOS) of water mains over time was computed, with a failure defined as a situation in which FOS becomes smaller than 1. The MC simulations yielded an empirical probability density function of time to failure, to which a lognormal distribution was fitted leading to the derivation of a failure hazard function. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the contribution of corrosion parameters to the variability of time to failure was more significant than the combined contributions of all other parameters. Areas where more research is needed are identified.     

Risk Assessment Methodology for Underground Construction Projects

This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for underground construction projects. A formalized procedure and associated tools were developed to assess and manage the risks involved in underground construction. The suggested risk assessment procedure is composed of four steps of identifying, analyzing, evaluating, and managing the risks inherent in construction projects. The main tool of the proposed risk assessment methodology is the risk analysis software. The risk analysis software is built upon an uncertainty model based on fuzzy concept. The fuzzy-based uncertainty model is designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both (1) probabilistic parameter estimates and (2) subjective judgments. Other tools developed in this study include the survey sheets for collecting risk-related information and the detail check sheets for risk identification and analysis. The paper finally discusses a detailed case study of the developed risk assessment methodology performed for a subway construction project in Korea.     

Mitigation of Damages to Electric Utilities Due to High Winds

Extreme winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes produce significant damage to electrical transmission and distribution line structures. The damage produces loss of power to the affected communities for a variable length of time, depending on severity of damage. Most institutions whose operations would be life threatening in the event of power failure have emergency power. However, loss of power to both residences and businesses can have economic impact on the community in the form of temporary housing shortages and loss of business. Utility companies seem to cope with wind damage fairly well, following risk management procedures in designing for wind and in providing alternate routing for distribution lines. However, continuing research and developments are needed to keep abreast of the problem.     

电力企业桌面终端安全管理应用研究

阐述电力企业桌面终端安全管理现状,分析电力企业桌面终端普遍存在的问题,梳理电力企业桌面终端的安全管理需求和法规遵循要求,提出“明确桌面终端生产办公设备属性、落实桌面终端安全风险管理”的桌面终端安全管理思想,并在电力企业现有的信息安全管理体系之下,验证在实际应用中实施桌面终端安全基线管理的可行性。     

Exposure data and risk indicators for safety performance assessment in Europe

The objective of this paper is the analysis of the state-of-the-art in risk indicators and exposure data for safety performance assessment in Europe, in terms of data availability, collection methodologies and use. More specifically, the concepts of exposure and risk are explored, as well as the theoretical properties of various exposure measures used in road safety research (e.g. vehicle- and person-kilometres of travel, vehicle fleet, road length, driver population, time spent in traffic, etc.). Moreover, the existing methods for collecting disaggregate exposure data for risk estimates at national level are presented and assessed, including survey methods (e.g. travel surveys, traffic counts) and databases (e.g. national registers). A detailed analysis of the availability and quality of existing risk exposure data is also carried out. More specifically, the results of a questionnaire survey in the European countries are presented, with detailed information on exposure measures available, their possible disaggregations (i.e. variables and values), their conformity to standard definitions and the characteristics of their national collection methods. Finally, the potential of international risk comparisons is investigated, mainly through the International Data Files with exposure data (e.g. Eurostat, IRTAD, ECMT, UNECE, IRF, etc.). The results of this review confirm that comparing risk rates at international level may be a complex task, as the availability and quality of exposure estimates in European countries varies significantly. The lack of a common framework for the collection and exploitation of exposure data limits significantly the comparability of the national data. On the other hand, the International Data Files containing exposure data provide useful statistics and estimates in a systematic way and are currently the only sources allowing international comparisons of road safety performance under certain conditions.