构造供电公司最优购电分配策略的CCP方法

研究供电公司在两个交易市场中的购电分配策略问题。鉴于机会约束规划是一类随机优化方法,该方法允许在观测到随机变量的实现之前做出决策,只要该决策使得约束条件成立的概率高于某一给定的置信水平,并且能够给决策所引起的风险以显式的描述,提出基于机会约束规划的供电公司购电分配策略模型,采用M on te-C arlo模拟结合基因算法求解。算例仿真表明,该研究工作为构造考虑风险管理的供电公司购电分配策略问题提供了一个途径。     

The effects and perceived consequences of testing accommodations on math and science performance assessments.

The present study examined the effect accommodations have on test results of students with and without disabilities and documented experts’ judgments about the appropriateness of testing accommodations. Test score data were collected from 218 fourth-grade students with and without disabilities on mathematics and science performance tasks and from eight testing experts who evaluated the fairness and validity of a sample of testing accommodations used with these students. Results indicated that, for most students with disabilities and some students without disabilities, packages of testing accommodations had a moderate to large effect on performance task scores. Expert reviewers rated most accommodations for a student with disabilities as being both valid and fair, and they gave accommodations listed on a student’s individualized education program (IEP) significantly higher validity and fairness ratings than accommodations that were not listed on the student’s IEP. Interpretations of these data are provided and implications for practice and future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting recidivism with the Psychopathy Checklist: Are factor score composites really necessary?

In two previous studies on general and violent recidivism (Walters & Heilbrun, 2010; Walters, Knight, Grann, & Dahle, 2008), the summed composite antisocial facet of the Psychopathy Checklist displayed incremental validity relative to the other 3 facets (interpersonal, affective, lifestyle), whereas the other 3 facets generally failed to demonstrate incremental validity relative to the antisocial facet. Because summed composite scores do not account for ordinal item distributions, the 6 Walters et al. (2008) samples were reanalyzed with factor score composites derived from a 4-factor confirmatory factor analysis. The results, however, showed little change from what had been obtained earlier with summed composite scores. Two additional samples not previously included in any incremental validity analyses of the Psychopathy Checklist evidenced a 3-factor structure, with the lifestyle and antisocial facets merged into a single factor. This single factor displayed incremental validity relative to the interpersonal and affective facets, but the reverse was not true regardless of whether summed composite scores or factor score composites were used. A comparison of zero-order correlations from all 8 samples revealed that the antisocial summed composite score predicted significantly better than the summed composite scores for the other 3 facets and that a superordinate factor failed to improve on the performance of either the antisocial summed composite score or the antisocial factor score composite. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

机会约束规划问题的最优解

本文讨论了机会约束规划ｍｉｎ｛ｃｘ｜Ｐ（Ａｉｘ≥ｂｉ）≥Ｐｉ，（ｉ＝１，…·，ｒ），Ｄｘ≥ｄ｝最优解的存在性，其中仅Ａｉ是随机的，Ａｉ是ｎ维正态随机向量；我们给出了这一机会约束规划存在最优解的充分条件，当Ａｉ～Ｎ（０，σｉＩ）（ｉ＝１，……，ｒ）时，我们还给出了机会约束规划ｍｉｎ｛ｃｘ｜Ｐ（Ａｉｘ≥ｂｉ）≥ｐｉ，ｉ＝１，…，ｒ｝的最优解     

加快水电开发是振兴四川经济的战略选择——庆祝《四川水力发电》创刊十周年

本文从振兴四川经济和全国一次能源平衡的战略观点,论述了加快四川水电开发的必要性,同时分析了加快四川水电开发的机遇和条件,最后提出了抓住机遇,不失时机地加快水电开发,带动和促进四川国民经济腾飞的四点主要对策建议.作者突出的提出了冲出去开窗口和引进来出让水电资源结合起来,达到既冲出盆地,又开发自己,发展自己,“打开四门,迎接五洲宾客”的战略思想。     

Four practical and conceptual assessment issues that evaluators should address in capital case mental retardation evaluations.

What unique assessment issues do evaluators face when conducting mental retardation evaluations in capital cases? This article describes 4 assessment issues and reports how 20 evaluators in 1 state have approached them: (a) What methods are appropriate for evaluating adaptive functioning in this context? (b) Should information about criminal behavior be used as evidence of adaptive functioning? (c) Should correctional officers serve as informants regarding adaptive behavior? and (d) How should the Flynn effect influence the interpretation of intelligence test scores? Implications for practice are that practitioners should expect to be asked about the relation between criminal behavior and adaptive functioning, must think carefully about the validity of tests of adaptive functioning for inmates, and must be knowledgeable about the current state of Flynn effect research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

考虑单峰分布的电热综合能源系统风险调度

不确定可再生能源并入电热综合能源系统后将引发系统运行风险,而通过合理量化风险,实现风险可控性和调度经济性平衡是电热综合能源系统风险调度的关键。依据随机风电功率的单峰分布特性构建矩模糊集并以此刻画风电功率的不确定性,同时采用分布鲁棒机会约束方法来刻画系统的运行风险,进而建立了电热综合能源系统的分布鲁棒风险调度模型。在此基础上,从风险发生概率和经济成本的角度,提出了评估不确定风电功率引发运行风险的量化指标：均值风险概率和风险调度成本。最后,以改进的巴厘岛电热综合能源系统为例进行算例分析,验证了所提模型及其风险评估指标的可行性和有效性,并给出了电热综合能源系统的最优调度决策。     

考虑源荷不确定性的电热系统联合调度

针对风电和电热负荷不确定的问题,提出计及源荷不确定性的旋转备用容量的优化方法,建立考虑电热备用耦合影响的调度模型。在日前阶段,以能源与负荷的预测量制定机组的出力方案,风电由于其预测精度较低,利用Beta概率密度函数来拟合风电出力,从而确定风电的不确定性带来的旋转备用容量,利用机会约束规划来处理不确定问题;负荷有较高的预测精度,但其波动性较强,使用概率场景生成和削减的方法制定不同场景下负荷备用需求的调整量,以日运行成本最低建立目标函数,运用改进的粒子群算法在IEEE30节点系统上验证了所提模型的经济性和鲁棒性。     

电厂优化配煤多目标机会约束数学模型的建立

在随机规划学的基础上,建立了电厂优化配煤我多目标机会约束数学模型。在此模型中,燃煤的煤质特性包括发热量、挥发份、灰份、水份和硫份等均被认为符合正态分布规律的随机变量,以此充分描述掺配煤种煤质不断波动的事实。     

基于模糊机会约束规划的输电系统规划方法

可持续发展的输电系统规划对传统的规划问题提出了新的挑战,而模糊机会约束规划是解决包含随机模糊性的不确定因素优化方法,为输电系统规划提供了新的解决途径,为此将这一方法引入到输电系统规划研究。通过对规划中不确定性问题的分析,建立了规划的数学模型,将模糊随机模拟和遗传算法相结合,实现了解决这类规划的新方法。最后,用算例证明了方法的可行性。