Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

用奇异模型描述的受限机器人的学习控制

本文了一类受限机器人的迭代学习控制方案，控制器的设计是基于机器人模型的降阶形式。在存在有界未知干扰的情况下，对末端操纵器受线性、无摩擦约束面的受限机器人。本文给出的控制方案保证了机器人系统的完全运动跟踪，同时保证了力跟踪误差有界的，且界的大小是可调节的。     

Heat transfer enhancement by Marangoni convection in the NH3–H2O absorption process

The objectives of this paper are to quantify the effect of Marangini convection on the absorption performance for the ammonia–water absorption process, and to visualize Marangoni convection that is induced by adding a heat transfer additive, n-octanol. A real-time single-wavelength holographic interferometer is used for the visualization using a He–Ne gas laser. The interface temperature is always the highest due to the absorption heat release near the interface. It was found that the thermal boundary layer (TBL) increased faster than the diffusion boundary layer (DBL), and the DBL thickness increased by adding the heat transfer additive. At 5 s after absorption started, the DBL thickness for 5 mass% NH₃ without and with the heat transfer additive was 3.0 and 4.5 mm, respectively. Marangoni convection was observed near the interface only in the cases with heat transfer additive. The Marangoni convection was very strong just after the absorption started and it weakened as time elapsed. It was concluded that the absorption performance could be improved by increasing the absorption driving potential (x_vb−x_vi) and by increasing the heat transfer additive concentration. The absorption heat transfer was enhanced as high as 3.0–4.6 times by adding the heat transfer additive that generated Marangoni convection.     

铜密闭鼓风炉生产效益的回归分析

通过铜密闭鼓风炉生产过程中关键指标的回归分析,寻找降低消耗、增加产出、提高经济效益的有效途径     

Conceptual design of a high-efficiency absorption cooling cycle

The search for high-efficiency, gas-fired cooling cycles has led to the development of dual-loop absorption machines with cooling coefficients of performance (COPs) in the 1.2 to 1.7 range. This increased performance may call for high generator temperatures, new working fluids or new materials of construction. In most cases, two different sets of working fluids are required. The conceptual design presented here is aimed at obtaining high efficiencies with relatively low temperatures, employing only one set of fluids. The concept consists of two loops coupled in a configuration aimed at minimizing the loss of thermodynamic availability incurred when transferring refrigerant between the loops. The working fluid pair is a solution of lithium bromide-water. The calculated COPs are of the order of 1.8. The cycle relies on an elaborate evaporator-absorber combination. The paper presents the conceptual design, the critical assumptions, and the performance calculations for the concept.     

Critical review of available correlations for two-phase flow heat transfer of ammonia

Although ammonia has been used for decades as a refrigerant of choice for selected large- and small-scale applications, no formal database is available on heat transfer of ammonia. A critical review of the published literature on heat transfer of ammonia is provided in this paper. The available correlations for in-tube and external boiling/evaporation and condensation heat transfer of ammonia are discussed and evaluated where possible. Supported by the findings of this effort, research areas of relevance that can contribute to expanded use of ammonia as an environmentally friendly refrigerant are suggested.     

Prediction of evaporation heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop of refrigerant mixtures

A study on the prediction of heat transfer coefficient (HTC) and pressure drop of refrigerant mixtures is reported. HTCs and pressure drops of prospective mixtures to replace R12 and R22 are predicted on the same cooling capacity basis. Results indicate that nucleate boiling is suppressed at qualities greater than 20.0% for all mixtures and evaporation becomes the main heat transfer mechanism. For the same capacity, some mixtures containing R32 and R152a show 8.0–10.0% increase in HTCs. Some mixtures with large volatility difference exhibit as much as 55.0% reduction compared with R12 and R22, caused by mass transfer resistance and property degradation due to mixing (32.0%) and reduced mass flow rates (23.0%). Other mixtures with moderate volatility difference exhibit 20.0–30.0% degradation due mainly to reduced mass flow rates. The overall impact of heat transfer degradation, however, is insignificant if major heat transfer resistance exists in the heat transfer fluid side (air system). If the resistance in the heat transfer fluid side is of the same order of magnitude as that on the refrigerant side (water system), considerable reduction in overall HTC of up to 20% is expected. A study of the effect of uncertainties in transport properties on heat transfer shows that transport properties of liquid affect heat transfer more than other properties. Uncertainty of 10.0% in transport properties causes a change of less than 6% in heat transfer prediction.     

La distribucion hipergeometrica como binomial de poisson

Resumen En este trabajo demostramos que toda distribución hipergeométricaH(N, X,n) puede ser descrita como suma de pruebas independientes con probabilidades de éxito distintas entre sí. Tal distribución recibe habitualmente el nombre de binomial de Poisson o binomial generalizada.