考虑元件综合重要度的电网安全性风险评估方法

从系统学角度出发,综合考虑系统中元件的结构属性、状态属性及社会属性,提出一种考虑元件综合重要度的电网安全性风险评估方法。综合元件结构重要度因子模型与元件状态灵敏度因子模型构建元件综合重要度模型,该模型克服了传统风险评估方法中对于不同元件的重要度无法表征的不足;综合考虑电网结构与状态,建立表征电网潮流分布均衡性与负荷损失的严重度模型,完善安全性风险评估指标体系。仿真结果表明,相较于传统方法,该方法对电网N-1故障风险排序更为合理,对N-k故障序列分级风险辨识度更高。     

高速公路特长隧道应急救援预案

以五女峰隧道为例,在确定了特长隧道应急预案总原则的前提下,提出了五女峰特长隧道灾害事故预案的编制,分别介绍了火灾、交通堵塞、突发安全事故发生情况下的应急预案。     

The relationship between in-treatment abstinence and post-treatment abstinence in a smoking cessation treatment.

Previous research has indicated that abstinence early in a smoking cessation program is predictive of successful posttreatment abstinence. However, it has not been established whether or not this effect is independent of other in-treatment abstinence patterns. In this paper the relationship between three potentially important aspects of in-treatment smoking abstinence and posttreatment smoking abstinence are examined: early abstinence, extended abstinence, and end-of-treatment abstinence. We examined the relationship between smoking behavior measured each weekday over 70 visits (approximately 14 weeks) of a contingency management smoking cessation program and at a follow-up visit 6 months after study entry (3 months after the scheduled end of treatment). Ninety-five of 102 participants were successfully followed-up. Seven of these 95 participants were confirmed abstinent. Early abstinence, defined as abstinence during the first 10 treatment visits, was significantly and independently related to follow-up abstinence (OR = 56.67 [7.29–440.63]). Extended abstinence and end-of-treatment abstinence were related to follow-up abstinence, but not independent of early abstinence based on multiple regression models. Inclusion of a variety of demographic and environmental characteristics did not significantly alter this relationship. Thus, consistent with the previous literature, the establishment of early abstinence appears to be crucial to establishing longer-term abstinence, independent of other in-treatment abstinence patterns. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Contingency management for smoking cessation in adolescent smokers.

This pilot study evaluated the use of contingency management (CM) procedures in combination with cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for smoking cessation in adolescents. Twenty-eight treatment-seeking adolescent smokers participated in a 1-month, school-based smoking cessation program and were randomly assigned to receive either CM with weekly CBT or CBT alone. In the CM+CBT group, biochemical verification of abstinence was obtained twice daily during the first 2 weeks, followed by daily appointments during the 3rd week and once every other day during the 4th week. Participants were monetarily reinforced for abstinence on an escalating magnitude schedule with a reset contingency. At the end of 1 week and 1 month of treatment, abstinence verified using quantitative urine cotinine levels was higher in participants in the CM+CBT group (1 week: 76.7%; 1 month: 53.0%) when compared with the CBT-alone group (1 week: 7.2%; 4 weeks: 0%). These preliminary results provide a strong initial signal supporting the utility of CM techniques for smoking cessation in adolescents and demonstrate the feasibility of implementing such a program in a school setting. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The effects of assessment type on verbal ratings of conditional stimulus valence and contingency judgments: Implications for the extinction of evaluative learning.

Recent research on causal learning found (a) that causal judgments reflect either the current predictive value of a conditional stimulus (CS) or an integration across the experimental contingencies used in the entire experiment and (b) that postexperimental judgments, rather than the CS's current predictive value, are likely to reflect this integration. In the current study, the authors examined whether verbal valence ratings were subject to similar integration. Assessments of stimulus valence and contingencies responded similarly to variations of reporting requirements, contingency reversal, and extinction, reflecting either current or integrated values. However, affective learning required more trials to reflect a contingency change than did contingency judgments. The integration of valence assessments across training and the fact that affective learning is slow to reflect contingency changes can provide an alternative interpretation for researchers' previous failures to find an effect of extinction training on verbal reports of CS valence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

自组织映射神经网络用于暂态稳定性分析的研究

对几种形式的自组织映射神经网络进行了集中介绍,并对自组织特征映射（SOFM）神经网络和学习矢量量化（LVQ）神经网络在电力系统暂态稳定模式识别中的应用性能进行比较。利用SOFM网络输出层聚类信息对不同ANN输入特征量的选取效果进行了直观的比较。在这些比较的基础上,利用Kohonen网络“无监督聚类、有监督学习”的工作方式,给出一种基于Kohonen网络的复杂系统在线事故筛选和发电机功角预测方法。利用华中电网的数据对这种网络进行了大量的计算,计算证实了该方法的有效性。     

电压稳定分析中支路型故障筛选及排序算法研究

提出了一种用于电压稳定性分析的支路型故障筛选和排序的快速算法，该方法分为4个阶段：①依据正常运行状态下的潮流解从所有预想事故中筛选出严重事故；②通过分析线路被置换后系统雅克比矩阵的最小奇异值，从所筛选出的事故中再次筛选出更严重的事故；③在指定的负荷水平下解潮流方程，从第二次筛选出的事故中再次筛选出最严重的事故；④对每个最严重的事故进行1次潮流计算，估计其最大负荷能力。通过New-England 39节点系统和IEEE 118节点系统算例表明，此算法计算量少，简单有效，易于实现。     

抗逆力与心理健康:应对方式的中介作用

目的本研究旨在探索非常规突发事件情景中危机救援人员的抗逆力对心理健康的影响机制。方法通过对5家单位有过危机救援的人员进行问卷调查,回收有效问卷836份,对问卷数据进行结构方程分析。结果应对方式在抗逆力的五个结构维度和心理健康之间起着中介作用,其中积极应对在坚强人格和心理压力之间起着完全中介效应;消极应对在理性判断与社会功能之间、在坚强人格和社会功能之间起着完全中介效应;消极应对在乐观感与社会功能、在柔性适应与社会功能之间起着部分中介作用。结论在非常规突发事件情景中,危机救援人员的应对方式在其抗逆力和心理健康之间起中介作用。     

The mu-opioid receptor and the evolution of mother-infant attachment: Theoretical comment on Higham et al. (2011).

Genetic variation at a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the mu-opioid receptor gene (OPRM1) of both humans and rhesus macaques Macaca mulatta has been associated with differential affinity to the endogenous ligand beta-endorphin as well as alterations in pain sensitivity, drug and alcohol dependence, and social behaviors. The new study by Higham et al. (2011) presented in the current issue of this journal shows for the first time that some of the natural variation in maternal behavior observed in rhesus macaque populations can also be explained by genetic differences at this SNP. This work, in conjunction with other recent studies showing that genetic variability at this same locus are related to changes in infant attachment, provides unique insights into how opioids have been reutilized during evolution to coordinate the mother-infant relationship. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

论社会历史发展的必然和偶然

必然性和偶然性是人们把握社会历史发展过程和分析社会生活现象的一对重要的哲学范畴．社会历史发展的客观规律和趋势是通过大量的历史偶然性表现出来的，历史的偶然性决定了历史发展的外观，但历史偶然性因素对社会历史进程的影响又是受历史发展规律制约的．在人们缺乏对历史过程的客观规律的自觉把握的情况下，历史偶然性是作为一种盲目的客观力量支配着人们的行为，社会发展就在总体上表现为自发进化的过程．而随着人们对自然和社会发展的客观本性和规律的认识的不断深化，社会发展过程中的必然和偶然的矛盾就会不断地转化为必然和自由的矛盾，使社会历史由自发进化转变为自觉发展．