Simulation of oil spills near environmentally sensitive areas in Egyptian coastal waters

Oil spills in Egyptian coastal waters have a direct impact on the national economy because of the potential environmental damage, and the corresponding negative effect on tourism. Computer simulations of oil spills were performed for four environmentally sensitive areas along Egyptian coasts using an existing oil spill model that incorporates the important variables and processes affecting oil transport in seawater. The expected slick trajectory and variation of oil properties with time were calculated for a proposed spill scenario at each site. Water current maps, the most critical model input parameter with respect to spill trajectory, were developed for each location. The simulations demonstrated that the most important oil property affecting spill response decisions and operations is the emulsion viscosity, in that it indicates when, where, and how responders can intervene for cleanup.     

The organizational fit of information systems

Abstract. One can expect that the fit, match or congruence between an information system and its organizational context will be of increasing importance as information systems become more and more integral parts of organizations. Existing IS research has largely neglected the theoretical analysis of the concept 'fit', however, even though it has been widely used in a 'pre-theoretical' sense. The analysis of the concept of 'organizational fit of an information system' put forward in this article is essentially based on the recent analysis of 'fit' in contingency theory, suggesting three interpretations for the concept: a selection approach, an interaction approach and a systems approach. A review of the IS literature on the organizational fit of information systems indicates a lack of any cumulative tradition in existing empirical contingency research into information systems and dominance of the selection approach. Because of the two limitations, this paper regards any definite assessment of the potential prospects of contingency research into information systems as overhasty and proposes a framework for future research into the situation dependence and organizational fit of information systems which integrates contingency research into information systems, contingency research into IS impacts and contingency research into the IS adoption (development/implementation) process.     

An Improved On-line Contingency Screening for Power System Transient Stability Assessment

This paper presents a contingency screening method and a framework for its on-line implementation. The proposed method carries out contingency screening and on-line stability assessment with respect to first-swing transient stability. For that purpose, it utilizes the single machine equivalent method and aims at improving the prior developed contingency screening approaches. In order to determine vulnerability of the system with respect to a particular contingency, only one time-domain simulation needs to be performed. An early stop criteria is proposed so that in a majority of the cases the simulation can be terminated after a few hundred milliseconds of simulated system response. The method’s outcome is an assessment of the system’s stability and a classification of each considered contingency. The contingencies are categorized by exploiting parameters of an equivalent one machine infinite bus system. A novel island detection approach, appropriate for an on-line application since it utilizes efficient algorithms from graph theory and enables stability assessment of individual islands, is also introduced. The New England and New York system as well as the large-scale model of the Continental-European interconnected system are used to test the proposed method with respect to assessment accuracy and computation time.     

Classification and assessment of power system static security using decision tree and random forest classifiers

The power system static security classification and assessment is essential in order to identify the post‐contingency problems and take corrective measures and to protect the system from blackout. In this paper, application of two data mining classifiers have been proposed for the security classification and assessment of a multiclass security problem. To design the security problem, contingency analysis is carried out under N‐1 line outage, and static severity index (SSI) is computed, which is a function of the line overload and the voltage deviation using Newton–Raphson load flow method, considering the variable load and generating conditions. Corresponding to the computed values of SSI, the voltage, phase angle, Mega Volt Ampere line flow and so on, a 1 × 7 pattern vector is generated. The generated pattern vectors are used to design a multiclass security problem. The designed security pattern vectors are given as inputs to the decision tree (DT) and random forest (RF) model in order to classify the security status of the power system. The proposed classifiers are investigated on an IEEE 30‐bus test system. The classification accuracy of the DT and the RF are compared with state‐of‐the‐art classifier models, namely, multilayer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), and support vector machine (SVM).The simulation results clearly indicate that the proposed DT and RF classifiers are more efficient, reliable, and out performs MLP, RBF, and SVM classifiers for the assessment of the security status of the power system. Hence, DT and RF classifiers are found to be suitable for online implementation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

澳大利亚煤矿安全管理体系研究

介绍了澳大利亚作为世界产煤大国在采矿业安全监察、风险评估和安全管理机制等方面的现场做法,应急救援预案以及员工参与安全管理和高效的培训等.     

Contingent Leadership and Effectiveness of Trauma Resuscitation Teams.

This research investigated leadership and effectiveness of teams operating in a high-velocity environment, specifically trauma resuscitation teams. On the basis of the literature and their own ethnographic work, the authors proposed and tested a contingency model in which the influence of leadership on team effectiveness during trauma resuscitation differs according to the situation. Results indicated that empowering leadership was more effective when trauma severity was low and when team experience was high. Directive leadership was more effective when trauma severity was high or when the team was inexperienced. Findings also suggested that an empowering leader provided more learning opportunities than did a directive leader. The major contribution of this article is the linkage of leadership to team effectiveness, as moderated by relatively specific situational contingencies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Pseudocontingencies.

In 3 experiments, the authors explored a contingency illusion termed pseudocontingency (PC) that produces logically unwarranted but potentially useful inferences. PCs arise when bivariate contingencies are inferred from univariate distributions via heuristic alignment processes. For example, in the absence of information about the co-occurrence of TV habits and aggressive behavior within a school class, when the prevalence of both attributes is high, a teacher may infer a positive PC as if students who often watch TV were highly aggressive. Throughout 3 experiments, predictions of the level of 1 variable from the level of another served as a measure of PCs. The illusion could be evoked reliably whether information about target attributes was presented successively or simultaneously, whether common-cause or common-effect models were activated, and whether attributes involved 2 or more levels. The discussion centers on the cognitive processes underlying PCs and their origin and adaptive value. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Strategy effects counteract distractor inhibition: Negative priming with constantly absent probe distractors.

It is an accepted, albeit puzzling finding that negative priming (NP) hinges on the presence of distractors in probe displays. In three experiments without probe distractors, the authors yielded evidence that response-biasing processes based on the contingency between prime and probe displays may have caused this finding. It is argued that it is of help in standard NP experiments to process the distractor in the prime display in order to prepare the response to the probe target. When this contingency was removed (Experiments 2 and 3), NP was reliably observed without probe distractors, whereas no NP emerged if the design contained the typical contingency (Experiment 1). For this reason, the data suggest that the absence of NP, which is usually observed under these conditions, may be due to a contingency-based component. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Cognitive Processes in Stereotype Formation: The Role of Correct Contingency Learning for Biased Group Judgments.

Three studies investigated contingency learning and stereotype formation in a scenario about group membership and behavior with a confounding context factor. The studies tested predictions from theoretical accounts of biased group judgments in terms of simplistic reasoning, parallel distributed memory, and pseudocontingencies. Study 1 revealed a positive correlation between erroneous stereotype formation and learning of the true contingencies with the confounding factor. Study 2 showed that a focus manipulation during encoding moderated the correlation between stereotype formation and contingency learning but not the strength of the erroneous stereotype. Study 3 used a quasiexperimental comparison between participants with biased versus unbiased group judgments and extended the findings of a positive relation between stereotype formation and contingency learning. The results support an explanation of biased group judgments by pseudocontingencies; that is, unwarranted inferences from accurately perceived bivariate correlations in complex environments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Randomized trial of contingent prizes versus vouchers in cocaine-using methadone patients.

Contingency management (CM) interventions frequently utilize vouchers as reinforcers, but a prize-based system is also efficacious. This study compared these approaches. Seventy-four cocaine-dependent methadone outpatients were randomly assigned to standard treatment (ST), ST plus a maximum of $585 in contingent vouchers, or ST plus an expected average maximum of $300 in contingent prizes for 12 weeks. CM participants achieved longer durations of abstinence (LDA) than ST participants, and CM conditions did not differ significantly in outcomes or amount of reinforcement earned. Although long-term abstinence did not differ by group, LDA during treatment was the best predictor of abstinence at 9 months. Thus, reinforcement with prizes was similar to voucher CM in promoting LDA, which is associated with posttreatment benefits. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)