高速公路施工区车辆强制换道耗时生存模型

为研究高速公路施工区车辆强制换道行为及其影响因素,采用生存分析中的半参数分析方法建立强制换道耗时的乘法风险率模型.通过无人机拍摄采集高速公路施工区的车辆换道耗时及其影响因素数据,最终确立换道耗时Cox比例风险模型,对换道耗时数据进行Cox回归建模分析.结果表明:近77%的换道车辆在10 s内完成换道;小型车和中型车经养护施工区的换道耗时未发现显著性差别;对于相同的换道耗时,平峰期的累积生存率明显低于高峰期和过渡时期,而高峰期的累积生存率最高.建立的强制换道耗时生存模型可有效的定量分析车型和交通时段对高速公路施工区车辆换道行为的影响,可为高速公路施工区交通管理控制及车辆换道行为建模及仿真奠定一定的理论基础.     

分布式能源热网储能量化计算分析

研究分布式能源供热系统中热网储能特性是制定能源高效利用控制策略的必要前提。该文通过对分布式能源热网储能特性的研究,建立热网储能量化计算模型。该模型描述热网储能特性的重要参数-储能供能持续时间。引入影响因子θ对模型进行改进,提高热网换热段温度与实际工况的吻合度。针对3个换热站的试验数据,对改进后模型进行滞后时间计算,从而验证其正确性。通过对实际案例的计算,得到并分析热网储能供能的持续时间,得出循环水泵存在最佳流量的结论。此外,应用上述模型对分时分段供暖工况进行分析计算,得出24h内与室外温度正相关的热网供水温度随时间的分布。     

In-process evaluation of grit protrusion feature for fine diamond grinding wheel by means of electro-contact discharge dressing

This paper introduces a new in-process evaluation method for grit protrusion feature on wheel surface by monitoring discharge current trace during electro-contact discharge (ECD) dressing of metal-bonded fine diamond grinding wheel. First an impulse discharge machining experiment was carried out to investigate the correlation between metal bond removal and discharge parameters, namely discharge current I_e and discharge pulse duration τ_e. Then ECD dressing experiment for #600 diamond grinding wheel was conduced to analyses the quantitative effect of the discharge parameters (I_e and τ_e), derived from discharge current trace between wheel and dresser (electrode), on grit protrusion feature of wheel surface. The result shows that the grit protrusion feature is sensitive to the discharge parameters (I_e and τ_e) with reference to mean diamond grit size d_gm. Further, the discharge parameters (I_e and τ_e) in ECD dressing should conform to the discharge variables’ requirement of , by which the grit protrusion feature may be evaluated and the dressing process variables may be determined. Finally, the in-process evaluation method was successfully applied to ECD dressing of #1500 diamond grinding wheel for valid grinding of hard-brittle materials.     

结构腐蚀损伤定量预测方法对比研究

用BP人工神经网络(artificial neural简称ANN)算法分别对飞机结构材料、lCrl7不锈钢腐蚀损伤数据进行学习训练，建立了腐蚀损伤与环境条件的映射模型，并预测腐蚀损伤值。分析了三种预测方法的预测精度。得到了ANN预测的精度比灰色GM(1，1)模型及Logistic模型的预测精度高，且对数据有较好的适应能力的结论；采用ANN技术定量预测飞机结构腐蚀损伤是一种较好工程方法。     

某城区排涝泵站设计流量计算方法初探

采用平均排除法、最大24 h雨型洪水流量时程分配法和产流汇流法3种方法分别计算了某城区电排站的设计流量,并将3种方法的计算结果进行对比分析,选用合适电排站的设计流量,可为类似工程设计流量的确定提供参考。     

How purchase intention consummates purchase behaviour: the stochastic nature of product valuation in electronic commerce

This study challenges the conventional assumption that online customers with high purchase intention routinely move to the purchase stage. To this end, the process of how online customers form purchase intention and behaviour is examined. On the basis of product value distribution (PVD), we propose that the hypothetically expected product value (i.e. PVD average) determines purchase intention, whereas the actual probability of attaining the expected product value (i.e. PVD variance) moderates purchase behaviour. This proposal indicates that the expected product value has significance only when repeated purchase is assumed given that most consumers do not repeatedly purchase the same product in reality. Thus, the actual probability of attaining the expected product value more critically affects customer behaviour than does its expected value. The effectiveness of the research model is verified by conducting a survey on 300 online mall shoppers in Korea. The results confirm model effectiveness.     

基于眨眼持续时间的司机疲劳检测方法

利用红外敏感的摄像机获得司机脸部图像,通过可变性模板匹配的方法对眼睛进行定位,然后利用卡尔曼滤波的方法跟踪眼睛,得到司机的眨眼持续时间参数,以此为依据判断司机是否疲劳.主要研究了其中的图像处理方法--特征提取算法和眼睛定位、跟踪算法.实验结果证明,眨眼持续时间判断是否疲劳的有效指标.     

行走前后对地板抗滑性的主观评量分析

目的调查行走前后地板抗滑性主观评量的影响因素及二者之间的关系。方法设计了4因子实验。实验因子包含地板粗糙度、地板表面情况、鞋底材质和照明情况。被试在步道待试区对地板感知抗滑性给出1(非常滑)-5(不滑)的评分;待走过实验步道后,再次对地板感知抗滑性给出评分,并对自觉滑动感(PSOS)做出评分。运用SAS分析软件对得到数据进行统计分析。结果地板粗糙度、地板表面情况和照明水平对实验前主观抗滑性存在显着的影响(P0.0001);鞋底材质、地板粗糙度和地板表面情况对实验后主观抗滑性及自觉滑动感(PSOS)存在显着的影响;地板粗糙度与实验前(r=0.38,P0.0001)与实验后(r=0.52,P0.0001)的主观抗滑性均为正相关;实验后的主观抗滑性与自觉滑动感为高度负相关(r=-0.84,P0.0001)。结论行走前地板主观抗滑性显著的受地板粗糙度、地板表面情况、照明水平的影响;行走后地板主观抗滑性显著的受鞋底材质、地板粗糙度和地板表面情况的影响。     

Psychosocial aspects of children and families treated with hemodialysis

Introduction: The aim of this study was to analyze the selected psychosocial aspects of chronic kidney disease in children treated with hemodialysis (HD). Methods: The study included 25 children treated with HD aged 2 to 18 years and their parents. Data concerning the illness and socio‐demographic parameters was collected. We used the Paediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) for patients and for their parents the PedsQL‐proxy version, General Health Questionnaire (GHQ‐12), Berlin Social Support Scales (BSSS), and the Caregivers Burden Scale (CBS) to evaluate health‐related quality of life (QoL) of HD children and their primary caregivers. Findings: In the PedsQL test, the QoL of HD children was lower than in healthy children. Children treated with HD assessed their QoL on the PedsQL questionnaire higher than the primary caregivers, on all subscales as well as an overall health‐related QoL. Scoring below 2 on the GHQ‐12 test was reported in 56% of mothers, which may indicate that psychological symptoms have intensified. There was no correlation between BSSS, CBS, and GHQ‐12. Discussion: The assessment of QoL in pediatric patients would allow for the earliest possible identification of their nonsomatic problems and irregularities. This could, consequently, contribute to improving QoL in both children with chronic kidney disease and their families.     

Perceived production complexity – understanding more than parts of a system

To successfully manage today’s complex production systems it is essential to study operators’ perception of the system. The paper presents perceived production complexity assessed at seven manufacturing companies with the CompleXity Index (CXI) method. While other methods have measured product variants, layout, work content, tools and information items, CXI combines them into three areas. These three complexity areas (Station design, Work variance and Disturbance handling) help to create an understanding of the complex system by visualising how they contribute to complexity, and show the need to support the operators’ ability to handle the varying work.