Investigating driver injury severity patterns in rollover crashes using support vector machine models

Rollover crash is one of the major types of traffic crashes that induce fatal injuries. It is important to investigate the factors that affect rollover crashes and their influence on driver injury severity outcomes. This study employs support vector machine (SVM) models to investigate driver injury severity patterns in rollover crashes based on two-year crash data gathered in New Mexico. The impacts of various explanatory variables are examined in terms of crash and environmental information, vehicle features, and driver demographics and behavior characteristics. A classification and regression tree (CART) model is utilized to identify significant variables and SVM models with polynomial and Gaussian radius basis function (RBF) kernels are used for model performance evaluation. It is shown that the SVM models produce reasonable prediction performance and the polynomial kernel outperforms the Gaussian RBF kernel. Variable impact analysis reveals that factors including comfortable driving environment conditions, driver alcohol or drug involvement, seatbelt use, number of travel lanes, driver demographic features, maximum vehicle damages in crashes, crash time, and crash location are significantly associated with driver incapacitating injuries and fatalities. These findings provide insights for better understanding rollover crash causes and the impacts of various explanatory factors on driver injury severity patterns.     

The determinants of fishing vessel accident severity

The study examines the determinants of fishing vessel accident severity in the Northeastern United States using vessel accident data from the U.S. Coast Guard for 2001–2008. Vessel damage and crew injury severity equations were estimated separately utilizing the ordered probit model. The results suggest that fishing vessel accident severity is significantly affected by several types of accidents. Vessel damage severity is positively associated with loss of stability, sinking, daytime wind speed, vessel age, and distance to shore. Vessel damage severity is negatively associated with vessel size and daytime sea level pressure. Crew injury severity is also positively related to the loss of vessel stability and sinking.     

A multinomial logit analysis of risk factors influencing road traffic injury severities in the Erzurum and Kars Provinces of Turkey

A retrospective cross-sectional study is conducted analysing 11,771 traffic accidents reported by the police between January 2008 and December 2013 which are classified into three injury severity categories: fatal, injury, and no injury. Based on this classification, a multinomial logit analysis is performed to determine the risk factors affecting the severity of traffic injuries. The estimation results reveal that the following factors increase the probability of fatal injuries: drivers over the age of 65; primary-educated drivers; single-vehicle accidents; accidents occurring on state routes, highways or provincial roads; and the presence of pedestrian crosswalks. The results also indicate that accidents involving cars or private vehicles or those occurring during the evening peak, under clear weather conditions, on local city streets or in the presence of traffic lights decrease the probability of fatal injuries. This study comprises the most comprehensive database ever created for a Turkish sample. This study is also the first attempt to use an unordered response model to determine risk factors influencing the severity of traffic injuries in Turkey.     

基于一种电压暂降新型描述的敏感设备免疫能力评估

介绍了电压暂降传统描述方法,分析了其在敏感设备免疫能力评估过程中的局限性。结合设备电压耐受曲线提出采用多暂降阈值和持续时间的电压暂降新型描述方法,并在此基础上提出针对设备免疫能力评估的单个事件和站点评估方法,给出站点暂降描述图的概念,可与设备电压耐受曲线方便的结合起来,评估设备因暂降发生故障的频次与频次区间。提出基于新型描述方法的电压暂降严重程度综合指标,较好解决了传统方法存在的过度评估与不精确问题。最后运用所提出的站点评估方法对PLC、ASD、AC Relay、PC 4类典型敏感设备电压暂降免疫能力进行评估,并与传统方法所得结果进行对比分析,验证了本文所分析的传统方法过度评估的缺点以及采用本文方法进行设备电压暂降免疫能力评估的可行性。     

Measuring the severity of transboundary freshwater conflict: structural vs. behavioural indices in Africa

In the global crisis over access to clean, adequate freshwater, Africa is a special case. Not only are many African states under severe water stress, but the continent is one of the most hydrologically interconnected regions on the planet. With 113 rivers, lakes and aquifers that cross an international border, over 60% of Africa’s territory falls into a transboundary watershed. Africa’s hydrology is interdependent, and mass poverty and political volatility heighten the risk of conflict over freshwater resources. This paper compares two approaches to understanding the severity of transboundary freshwater conflict; one based in behavior and the other based on structural factors unique to each water resource and its users. The goal is to identify Africa’s water hot spots, or those areas where violence over water resources is most likely. The broader aim is to better understand how the way we measure severity affects our understanding of freshwater conflict, and how policy-makers might best approach water politics in Africa.     

遥感探测小麦条锈病严重度的GBRT模型研究

为了提高小样本数据模型的稳定性,构建具有更高精度和鲁棒性的小麦条锈病遥感探测模型.首先基于辐亮度和反射率荧光指数方法提取了冠层日光诱导叶绿素荧光(SIF)数据,然后结合对小麦条锈病病情严重度敏感的反射率光谱指数并基于改进的分类与回归树(CART)——梯度提升回归树(GBRT)算法,构建了融合反射率和冠层SIF数据的小麦...     

桁架结构损伤识别的最小秩方法

在结构损伤的早期阶段,损伤往往集中发生在少数单元,损伤前后总体刚度矩阵差的秩较小。本文给出一种基于矩阵最小秩理论的计算方法,对损伤结构的模态力余量方程进行求解,反演得到总体刚度矩阵的变化量。数值试验表明,该方法对桁架结构的损伤可进行精确的定位和标定。     

浅议PFMEA在实际生产中的有效运用

介绍了过程潜在失效模式及后果分析(PFMEA,Process Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis)技术,说明了PFMEA与控制计划及标准化操作之间的关系,结合发动机制造工艺的具体应用实例,阐述了运用PFMEA使之成为动态文件并指导实际问题解决的方法.     

合肥市干旱识别及基于Copula的特征值重现期分析

以合肥市月降水量为干旱指标，以轻旱等级的上下限值为干旱发生阈值，并以月水面蒸发量与土壤耕作层有效含水率之和为干旱解除阈值，采用三阈值游程理论法识别干旱，以干旱烈度和峰值强度为干旱事件的特征值，利用适于描述具有上尾相关性的GH Copula函数构建特征值的联合分布，计算干旱事件特征值的各种重现期，辨析各种重现期的内涵及其对实际旱情的反映。结果表明，基于月降水量和月水面蒸发量识别的干旱能较准确地反映实际旱情；合肥市干旱始于10、7月的可能性最高，严重干旱绝大多数均始于或包含7月；发生于2019年7~12月的干旱烈度、峰值强度的重现期分别为27.4、42.9年，烈度和峰值强度的“AND”、“OR”联合重现期分别为48.0、25.7年；联合重现期越大的干旱不代表其对承灾体造成的损失越严重。     

浅造斜点与钻具疲劳累积失效的关系及启示

通常定向井深度在3 000~5 000m的设计造斜点为200~500m,而国内不同地区已发生多起因浅造斜点施工作业一定时间后出现频繁刺漏、断钻具等失效问题。为此,通过对几起案例的共性分析,以及进一步从材料力学和钻具疲劳的角度开展理论研究,得出了浅造斜点与钻具累积疲劳极限的关系及结论,主要包括:1发生严重的钻具频繁刺漏、钻具断裂的主要原因是钻具疲劳损伤累积;2造斜点越浅,钻杆疲劳所需的最低弯曲应力幅越小,较小的狗腿度即可达到损伤累积极限,井越深越危险;3钻杆镦粗加厚带及其附近位置为现代钻具生产的薄弱区,是最主要的应力集中点,成为最易发生刺漏、断裂的位置。最后,提出了设计、现场施工作业的预防措施:1若非特殊设计目的施工需要,钻井设计应尽可能避免设计浅造斜点的中深定向井;2针对浅造斜点井设计时,应根据钻具疲劳损伤累积法计算出最大许可狗腿度,从源头上避免钻具进入损伤累积极限区;3施工中应对钻具疲劳寿命做出有效预测,进行更严格的管理,对钻具做出及时检验和分级。